8-Mar-10 News - Iraq elects a new government - 8-Mar-2010 - Generational Dynamics

Millions of Iraqis voted in Iraqi elections on Sunday, despite terrorist threats and attacks that killed 38 people. These attacks, which are thought to be perpetrated by al-Qaeda in Iraq, were intended to discourage voting. The threats and attacks may have partially succeeded, as early figures indicated a turnout of 50-60%, compared with 76% in 2005, according to Times Online.

With all American troops scheduled to be withdrawn by the end of 2011, this is the last major Iraqi election where American troops will be present. Thus, it's important that Iraqis accept the validity of this election, according to the article. A Western diplomat is quoted as saying, "If Iraqis don’t have a sense that the next government speaks and stands for them, then they are likely to turn away from the democratic political process. When they see only chaos they are more likely to accept the return of a strongman ruler."

"Today, the people of Iraq went to the polls to choose their leaders in Iraq’s second national election. By any measure, this was an important milestone in Iraqi history. Dozens of parties and coalitions fielded thousands of parliamentary candidates, men and women. Ballots were cast at some 50,000 voting booths. And in a strong turnout, millions of Iraqis exercised their right to vote, with enthusiasm and optimism. ...

As expected, there were some incidents of violence, as al Qaeda in Iraq and other extremists tried to disrupt Iraq’s progress by murdering innocent Iraqis who were exercising their democratic rights. ...

On behalf of the American people, I congratulate the Iraqi people on their courage throughout this historic election. Today, in the face of violence from those who would only destroy, Iraqis took a step forward in the hard work of building up their country. The United States will continue to help them in that effort as we responsibly end this war, and support the Iraqi people as they take control of their future."

I particularly wanted to quote the first sentence of the second paragraph above. Apparently it's now OK to talk about al-Qaeda in Iraq now, a phrase that could not be uttered by the left during the Bush administration. Isn't politics wonderful?

As for myself, I haven't materially changed my analysis of the Iraq war since I first wrote about it in 2003, and fully analyzed when the "surge" began early in 2007. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq.") At that time, there was no better analysis of what was going on in Iraq in any publication in the world that I was aware of, and that analysis still tells you more about Iraq than most analyses today.

That analysis, which was based on Generational Dynamics theory, started from the fact that Iraq is in a generational Awakening era. It drew on historical sources, particularly what was happening in Iraq's previous Awakening era, in the 1930s, to reach some conclusions about what's happening today. If you change some of the names and dates, then the two Awakening eras are remarkably similar. In particular, the results of an American withdrawal will be similar to the results of a British withdrawal in the 1930s-40s. The British withdrawal led to chaos that eventually gave rise to the brutal dictatorship of Sadaam Hussein, and that will happen again in time.

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani versus Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei

One of the most fascinating potential effects of the Iraq election is hardly touched upon by the mainstream press: Its effect on Iran.

Iran and Iraq are in the same Awakening era, having fought the bloody Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988.

Iran has an increasingly dictatorial government, formed by survivors of the Iran/Iraq war. There was an election last year that was widely viewed as fraudulently reelecting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president, widely opposed by an opposition "Green movement."

Iraq would undoubtedly also have an increasingly dictatorial government, had it not been for the American ground invasion, and the capture and execution of Saddam Hussein. This also resulted in a shift in power from a Sunni-dominated government to a Shia-dominated government, with an evidently fair election held today.

Both countries now have a full generation of young people with no personal memories of the Iran/Iraq war. These young people, in both countries, can see and compare Iran's increasingly dictatorial government with Iraq's government, currently democratic and free.

What effect will the fair Iraq election have on Iran's Green movement, as they compare it with their own election last year? That's the question we wish to ask.

In 2004, I wrote a lengthy article comparing Iraq's Awakening era today to America's Awakening era in the 1960s. (See "Iraq Today vs 1960s America.")

In that article, I compared the role of Martin Luther King in the 1960s to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Iraq today. I received some criticism for that comparison, but from the point of view of generational theory, it made sense. Both King and al-Sistani were survivors of the preceding crisis war (WW II and the Iran/Iraq war, respectively), and they were both using their political skills to promote peace and reconciliation.

An article by Abbas Djavadi in RFERL points out that Tehran wants the U.S. to withdraw its troops from Iraq, but is troubled by the possible consequences of withdrawal too soon.

In another article, Djavadi compares Iraq's spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The differences are stark, as described by Djavadi. Iran's original supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, took on the office of supreme leader in 1979 after promising that he wouldn't. After his death, his successor, the current supreme leader Ali Khamanei, wasn't even an ayatollah until he was hastily "promoted" in order to take on the political office.

By contrast, Iraq's al-Sistani is a higher cleric ("grand ayatollah" versus "ayatollah") than either of Iran's supreme leaders. More important, al-Sistani has eschewed any political role, but provides a traditional Shia cleric role of giving advice, based on Islamic principles.

According to Djavadi, who has a large family of relatives in Iran, most Iranian Shia today respect Iraq's al-Sistani as their spiritual advisers. He concludes, "With their aggressive policy of distancing themselves from the foundations of Shi'ite Islam and the intensifying oppression, Khamenei and his lieutenant, Ahmadinejad, are gradually ensuring the alienation of the majority of the Shi'ite faithful."

Almost none of this has broken through to the mainstream press as yet, but as the Awakening era progresses in both Iran and Iraq, and as the clerics in Iran's government continue to disgrace themselves among Shia Muslims, the role of Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani could become extremely important in the politics of both countries.

Additional Links

Investors become increasingly convinced that the Greek financial crisis has ended, as they return more fully to the risky investments they were pursuing prior to the 2007 financial crisis. Bloomberg

The Palestinians, who are extremely skeptical (as am I), agreed on Sunday to "indirect" peace talks with Israel. These talks will be mediated by U.S. Mideast envoy, George J. Mitchell. NY Times

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Mar-2010
8-Mar-10 News - Iraq elects a new government

Chaotic Iraq election is last one planned with American troops present

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani versus Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Mar-2010 8-Mar-10 News - Iraq elects a new government

Chaotic Iraq election is last one planned with American troops present

Iraq's Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani versus Iran's Ayatollah Khamanei

Additional Links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Mar-2010
8-Mar-10 News - Iraq elects a new government