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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Mar-2010
15-Mar-10 News - Georgians panic over mock TV war report

Web Log - March, 2010

15-Mar-10 News - Georgians panic over mock TV war report

Taliban claims credits for bombings in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Taliban steps up bombings, and Nato and Pakistan army step up counter-insurgency

As Nato's "surge" strategy continues in Afghanistan, Taliban terrorists set off a series of bombs Saturday in Kandahar, the spiritual home of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Dozens were killed and wounded, including 13 police offices and 22 civilians. The Taliban have taken credit, and a spokeman says the attacks are a warning to the Nato forces, according to The Telegraph.

As we've said in the past, an important difference between the Iraq war and the Afghanistan war is the tribal area of Pakistan, on the border with Afghanistan. In Iraq, al-Qaeda linked suicide bombers are far from their base, but in Afghanistan, Kandahar is close to the tribal area, which is the stronghold for hundreds of Taliban terrorists.

In the last year, the Pakistan army has been cooperating with the Nato forces in Afghanistan by targeting terrorist hideouts in the tribal, and at least 18 Taliban were killed on Sunday, when fighter jets bombed their hideouts, according to Pakistan's Daily Times.

However, the Taliban have also been stepping up their terrorist activitites. The Taliban have claimed credit for Lahore suicide bombings that we reported on Friday, as well as a Saturday suicide bombing in Pakistan's Swat Valley.

If you listen to pundits and politicians about all this, then you get various mixed messages. Some of them blame all the Taliban terrorist activity on Nato, especially Americans, even claiming that if the Americans would only go home, then all terrorist activity would cease. Others claim that increased activity by the Pakistan army would rid the region of Taliban terrorists.

All of these views overlook the generational angle. There is a whole new generation of young Sunni Muslim Pashtuns who are being influenced by al-Qaeda linked clerics to become jihadists. These young people will continue to turn in that direction whether the Americans are there or not, and they will increase in number faster than the Pakistan army can bomb their hideouts.

See last September's report, "American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war," for a more complete analysis.

Fake TV report on new Russia-Georgia war panics Georgians

In a world where people are always doing something stupid, this is one of the stupidest stunts I've seen in a while.

Recall that in 2008, a bitter conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia led to a Russian invasion of Georgia.

On Saturday evening, a TV show in Georgia ran a half-hour spoof news show, supposedly portraying events that would occur in three months, on June 7, 2010, according to the Georgian Times. Using 2008 footage, the show portrayed a new Russian invasion, leading to the assassination of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The fake news story began with a brief announcement, quoted by Civil Georgia: "We want to offer you a simulated, special bulletin.... Our viewers and invited guest [in Special Report program's studio] will see a news bulletin of probably the toughest day for Georgia, which take into view those threats which politicians and experts are discussing regularly; [a news bulletin about] how events may develop if the society is not consolidated against Russia's plans. Let's see the news bulletin about the worst future."

However, most viewers missed this opening announcement, and there was widespread panic in Georgia, with people running from their homes, especially near the South Ossetian border, among people fearing that a new Russian invasion was actually taking place.

The fake news story is spurring controversy throughout Georgia and Russia for many reasons, not least of which is that there is some question as to whether President Saakashvili himself authorized the spoof, or at least was aware of it in advance.

Indeed, Saakashvili is quoted by Civil Georgia as saying, "But the major unpleasant thing about the yesterday's report - and I want everyone to realize it well - was that this report is maximally close to reality and maximally close to what may really happen, or to what Georgia's enemy keeps in mind."

Here's a a video from Russia Today. It contains some video from the fake report, as well as a discussion that's critical of Saakashvili.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there were some interesting things about the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. The main thing is that it was perfectly clear that the Russians and the Georgians do not hate each other. This should not be surprising, since the great genocidal Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was Georgian, and it certainly became very clear as the war progressed.

The other important thing is that the Georgians and the Ossetians DO hate each other, and each would like nothing so much as to help exterminate the other.

Thus, I've never really blamed the Russian strategy in invading Georgia in 2008, although many in the West do. The Caucasus region has historically been the theatre of many huge ethnic and religious genocidal wars, especially between Muslims and Orthodox Christians. When the conflict between Georgia and the Ossetians broke out, the Russians felt obligated to prevent it from spiraling out of control.

Nonetheless, even if the Russians and Georgians do not hate each other, they don't trust each other either, and the fake news story incident only highlights the distrust.

All sides jockey for position in Greece bailout question

Greece will present its new austerity measures to Eurogroup finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels on Monday, in the hope of getting bailed out. However, everyone's playing it cool, real cool.

Thus, AP reports that Greece does not really want money from the EU, just political support.

But German Interior Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted by Reuters as saying that "there is no reason to take decisions on financial aid on Monday."

Greek debt maturing in 2010, by month <font size=-2>(Source: wsj.com)</font>

Greek debt maturing in 2010, by month (Source: wsj.com)

And French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde is quoted as saying, "I'm certainly not expecting any decision being made, or any button being pressed, or any button being selected to be pressed, because it's totally premature."

And yet, there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Greece will be able to meet its 20 billion euros of debt payments due in April and May, without some kind of bailout.

Additional Links

According to a new poll that's very significant from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, half of Israeli high schoolers oppose equal rights for Arabs. There's a huge secular-religious gap, where 82% of religious teens say that Arabs should not be eligible to run for the Knesset, while only 47% of secular teens agreed. Haaretz

In Malaysia, where there's violence between Christian and Muslims, Christians have been using the "Camel Method" to convert Muslims to Christianity. This method starts with the story of Isa (Arabic for Jesus) in the Koran, and uses the Arabic word for "Allah" to refer to the Christian god. NY Times

The State Department is warning Americans of danger in traveling to three Mexican states, after three people connected to the U.S. consultate in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, were killed in drive-by shootings. It's believed that Americans are being specifically targeted by drug cartel members. The warnings apply particularly to American college students traveling to Mexican border cities next week on spring break. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Mar-10 News - Georgians panic over mock TV war report thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Mar-2010) Permanent Link
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