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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2010
28-Mar-10 News - Arabs contemplate failure of peace process

Web Log - March, 2010

28-Mar-10 News - Arabs contemplate failure of peace process

Palestinian / Israeli conflict escalates in Gaza.

Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza after bloody gun battles

A series of gun battles have followed Friday's clashes in the Gaza strip, when wo soldiers in the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) were killed on Friday in what was apparently a Hamas ambush involving gunfire and explosive devices.

The Times quotes Palestinian sources as saying that one civilian was killed and seven were wounded in new gun battles that ended on Saturday. An Israeli spokesman said that Israeli troops used bulldozers to "remove infrastructure used by terrorists to attack soldiers," before pulling out on Saturday.

Since 2003, there have been three wars in the Mideast: Israelis vs Hizbollah in Lebanon in 2006, Palestinian Fatah vs Hamas in Gaza in 2008, and Israelis vs Hamas in Gaza in 2009. The region has been relatively quiet since the last war ended early in 2009. This new violence, which appears to be intentional on the part of Hamas, could be a sign that a new conflict is about to begin.

Arab League contemplates failure of Mideast peace process

Three weeks ago, an Israeli government official announced plans to build 1,600 more Jewish settlements in east Jerusalem, at a time when US Vice President Joe Biden was visiting the region to restart peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. (See "10-Mar-10 News - Biden in Jerusalem condemns Israeli settlements.")

That announcement, by all accounts, was accidental as to timing, but it has had a "butterfly effect" result in causing a chain reaction of events that are increasing tensions. First, the Palestinians ended all discussions of peace talks, causing Joe Biden's visit to end in failure, and then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was humiliated in a visit to Barack Obama in Washington, causing that visit to end in failure.

Yesterday's gun battles in Gaza were apparently purposely launched by Hamas, and that policy change presumably is part of the same chain reaction from the settlement issue.

The settlement issue has now caused some particularly harsh statements to come from the annual meeting of the Arab League that began on Saturday in Libya. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas ruled out any peace talks with Israel unless Israel backs down on the settlement issue, according to the Arab News.

And Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said that Arab states should prepare for the possibility that the Palestinian-Israeli peace process may be a total failure and come up with alternatives.

Long-time readers of this web site have known for years that the peace process will end in failure, since Generational Dynamics predicts it with 100% certainty. But part of the chain reaction caused by the recent settlement announcement is a much wider recognition that the peace process must end in failure.

It will be interesting to see whether this chain reaction continues to intensify, or whether something will happen to "restore hope," and cause the peace talks to restart.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, nothing has changed since what I first wrote in 2003, when President Bush launched his major peace plan. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?") Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a major new Mideast war re-fighting the 1948-49 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine, and the creation of the state of Israel. There will be no peace agreement.

Additional Links

United Nations inspectors suspect that Iran is buidling more secret nuclear enrichment sites, in violation of international law. NY Times

The passage of President Obama's health care bill has removed a tax benefit to corporations that give prescription drug coverage to retirees. As a result, AT&T, Caterpillar, Deere & Co., AK Steel, and Valero Energy have announced large tax writedowns (AT&T's alone was $1 billion), and other companies are considering ending their prescription drug coverage for retirees. WSJ

3.3 million college students with student loans had their names, addresses, dates of birth, and Social Security numbers stolen last week, as hackers broke into an ECMC (Educational Credit Management Corp.) portable computer. Star Tribune

Increasingly aggressive Russian strategic bombers are entering UK airspace more often, causing Royal Air Force bombers to scramble on intercept missions. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Mar-10 News - Arabs contemplate failure of peace process thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Mar-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2010 28-Mar-10 News - Arabs contemplate failure of peace process

Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza after bloody gun battles

Arab League contemplates failure of Mideast peace process

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2010
28-Mar-10 News - Arabs contemplate failure of peace process