	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2010
29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate

Web Log - March, 2010

29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate

Israel is closed to West Bank for 9 days

Red Shirt protesters meet with Thailand's Prime Minister

Most countries of the world today are in generational Crisis eras, since they fought in World War II as a crisis war. The result is that I'm using writing about ethnic or religious violence that's occurring or about to occur.

But there are other countries today that are in generational Awakening eras, and it's often more fun to write about those, since they're often more colorful and less bloody.

One such country is Iran, whose last crisis war was the 1979 Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Last year's June 12 presidential elections were followed by massive street protests by young college-age people, the first generation born after the end of the preceding crisis war. These protests are the mark of a generational Awakening era. (For an analysis of Iran's 2009 protests, see "Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue.")

Thailand is also in a generational Awakening era. I discussed this at length in 2008 in "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war.")

In that article, I described the massive demonstrations by the yellow-shirted young people opposing the charismatic former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. As Prime Minister from 2005-2007, Thaksin became very popular with the poor rural voters in the north and northeast, but he angered the wealthier, better educated elite population in the southern areas around Bangkok.

Yellow-shirted opponents were able to defeat a series of Thaksin allies, until finally a bloodless coup brought an anti-Thaksin PM into office in 2009.

Red-shirted supporters of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, in mass demonstrations in Bangkok on March 15 <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: dailymail.co.uk)</font>

Red-shirted supporters of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, in mass demonstrations in Bangkok on March 15 (Source: dailymail.co.uk)

This infuriated the red-shirted Thaksin supporters, and tens of thousands of them have been demonstrating and protesting in Bangkok for the last few weeks. They're demanding that the current PM dissolve Parliament and call a new election, with the hope of electing another PM allied with Thaksin.

Both the 2008 protests and the new protests have been almost completely non-violent, as is usually the case with Awakening era protests. However, the NY Times reports that there have been several grenade attacks that wounded soldiers.

The red-shirted protesters won a victory this weekend, when they forced the current PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva, to meet with them to talk about their demands. In fact, it seems that the Abhisit administration is losing its grip on political power, according to the Bangkok Post.

However, the Sunday meeting ended in stalemate, when Abhisit announced that the timing is not right for an election. The Times quotes him as saying, "I have to make a decision based on a consensus from the entire country, including the Red Shirts. We have to consider: will dissolution really solve the problem?"

It's clear that this raucous political situation is going to continue, just as it will continue in Iran.

However, it's worthwhile focusing on a big difference between the two countries.

Awakening era protests are caused by a "generation gap" between the survivors of the preceding crisis war and their children, born after the war. There are chaotic political battles between the two generations, and eventually the younger generation wins them, because the older generation dies out.

In Iran we see the older generation resorting to violence to prevent the younger generation from gaining power. This is a very bad sign, and portends increasing violence as the next crisis era approaches.

But in Thailand, the protests are being handled peacefully. This is a good sign, and means that the country may escape violence for years to come.

Additional Links

Israel will block entry into Israel from the West Bank starting from Sunday evening, and continuing for 9 days, until the end of Passover. Only humanitarian workers will be permitted to enter during this period. Arab News.

China is spending a record amount of money to combat internal security threats. China has tens of thousands of "mass incidents" every year, and the number is growing. Telegraph

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Mar-2010) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2010 29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate

Red Shirt protesters meet with Thailand's Prime Minister

Additional Links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2010
29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate