30-Mar-10 News - Russia's 'Black Widows' bring terror to Moscow subways - 30-Mar-2010 - Generational Dynamics

Subway systems in large cities around the world are on higher alert today, after two female suicide bombers blew themselves up in Moscow subway statioins at the height of the Monday morning rush hour. At the time of the explosions, the platforms were packed with people getting on and off the trains. 37 people were killed and 65 more were injured, according to Tass. At one station, the severed head of a woman, most likely one of the suicide bombers, was found, according to Pravda.

The Moscow Times is calling it the "Revenge of the Black Widows," referring to female suicide bombers who blew themselves up in a series of suicide bombings from 2001 to 2004. Females are often more successful as suicide bombers because male policemen are often forbidden from questioning or searching women, and because of the widespread prejudice that women aren't violent, and so females rarely get caught before they blow up their bombs.

The worst of it occurred in 2004 when "black widows" were responsible for explosions that crashed two planes flying from Moscow. That was only one of three major terrorist attacks in ten days. The second was a subway bombing in Moscow, and the third was the truly horrific slaughter of more than 340 people, including 156 children, in a terrorist hrostage-taking incident in Beslan, North Ossetia. (See "Russian President Putin asks revenge for Beslan.")

All of these terrorist attacks were blamed on radical Islamist terrorists living in Russia's Caucasus region, in the provinces of Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and North Ossetia. These provinces are the heartland of the fault line between the Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations that had fought many genocidal wars of extermination with each other for centuries.

Nonetheless, then-President Vladimir Putin promised revenge and victory against the terrorists, and after a lull of several years, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last year claimed that the war was over, and that Russians, especially Moscow residents, can feel safe again.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, such a claim is ridiculous, for several reasons. For one thing, in a poverty-stricken region like Russia's Caucasus provinces, there are always new generations of disaffected youth growing up, willing to take advice from elder Muslim clerics preaching death to the infidel.

And second, it doesn't take an army to continue fighting a war of this type. All the radical Islamists need is a genocidal suicide bomber, preferably female, willing to blow up a subway train. It takes only one person to prove that the war has not ended.

Russia is deep into a generational Crisis era, and so from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are two things to watch for, as events unfold.

First, expect to see Russian xenophobia increase, as the Chechen Muslims are blamed for the current attack. There have already been scattered news reports of threats and violence against Muslims, and that's expected to increase.

And second, expect to see Vladimir Putin's popularity rise further. Putin is bitterly hated by a segment of the Russian population, of course, but that segment is relatively small. Putin is extremely popular among the Russian people, and is widely regarded as a hero for his strongly pro-Russian nationalism. It is expected that Putin will lead the Russians in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.

Obama in Afghanistan promises the troops 'You don't quit.'

President Barack Obama took advantage of the euphoria surrounding his victory in getting the health care bill passed to visit the troops in Bagram, Afghanistan.

"You are part of the finest military in the history of the world, and we are proud of you. And so I want you to know that everybody back home is proud of you. Everybody back home is grateful. And everybody understands the sacrifices that you have made and your families have made to keep America safe and to keep America secure in this vital mission. ...

We can’t forget why we’re here. We did not choose this war. This was not an act of America wanting to expand its influence; of us wanting to meddle in somebody else’s business. We were attacked viciously on 9/11. Thousands of our fellow countrymen and women were killed. And this is the region where the perpetrators of that crime, al Qaeda, still base their leadership. Plots against our homeland, plots against our allies, plots against the Afghan and Pakistani people are taking place as we speak right here. And if this region slides backwards, if the Taliban retakes this country and al Qaeda can operate with impunity, then more American lives will be at stake. The Afghan people will lose their chance at progress and prosperity. And the world will be significantly less secure. ...

So thanks to you, there’s been progress these last several months. But we know there are going to be some difficult days ahead. There’s going to be setbacks. We face a determined enemy. But we also know this: The United States of America does not quit once it starts on something. (Applause.) You don’t quit, the American armed services does not quit, we keep at it, we persevere, and together with our partners we will prevail. I am absolutely confident of that."

President Obama is as fully committed to this war as President Bush was to the war in Iraq.

Bond sales from Greece and the U.S. appear to weaken

Greece raised 5 billion euros on Monday, by selling 7-year government bonds. The yield (interest rate) was 5.9%, which was higher than expected, as demand was weak, according to the BBC. The money will be used to pay current debts. (This is like "using your Master Card to pay your Visa.")

The high interest rates in Monday's bond auction indicates that investors were not impressed by the announcement last week by European leaders of a rescue package for Greece. It's increasingly clear that last week's announcement was a farce.

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds have also been surging in a "destabilizing fashion," according to David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, as quoted by the Telegraph. Last week alone, yields surged 30 basis points, from 3.6% to 3.9%. They're up 90 basis points since December. According to Rosenberg, this yield spike is similar to the one that occurred in 2007, just before the credit crisis began.

As I've said many times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the situation hasn't changed. The stock market has been historically overpriced by substantial amounts since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, will have to fall sharply and stay down there for a comparable length of time (15 years). This is a mathematical certainty. (See "How to compute the 'real value' of the stock market.")

Additional Links

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his supermodel wife Carla Bruni, who have been rumored to have had recent affairs with other people, visited New York on Monday, and made a great show of holding hands and appearing very much in love. AP

"Battle of the Youth Bulge." This article discusses the consequences of the high birth rate among Sunni Muslims in the last 60 years. While population growth in the West has has been slowing, population in Sunni Muslim countries has been growing very quickly. Daily Reckoning

Even though officials in Beijing have taken macroeconomic measures to tighten the property market, most people expect China's massive real estate bubble to continue growing, according to Andy Xie at caing.com. (Don't forget Stein's Law: If something cannot go on forever, then it won't.)

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Mar-2010
30-Mar-10 News - Russia's 'Black Widows' bring terror to Moscow subways

Two female suicide bombers kill dozens in Moscow subway bombings

Obama in Afghanistan promises the troops 'You don't quit.'

Bond sales from Greece and the U.S. appear to weaken

Additional Links

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Mar-2010 30-Mar-10 News - Russia's 'Black Widows' bring terror to Moscow subways

Two female suicide bombers kill dozens in Moscow subway bombings

Obama in Afghanistan promises the troops 'You don't quit.'

Bond sales from Greece and the U.S. appear to weaken

Additional Links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Mar-2010
30-Mar-10 News - Russia's 'Black Widows' bring terror to Moscow subways