	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2010
3-Apr-10 News - Russia's President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists

Web Log - April, 2010

3-Apr-10 News - Russia's President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists

Will Russia join the West's war on terror?

Russian President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists

Female suicide bomber Dzhennet Abdurakhmanova and her husband, terrorist Umalat Magomedov. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Moscow Times)</font>

Female suicide bomber Dzhennet Abdurakhmanova and her husband, terrorist Umalat Magomedov. (Source: Moscow Times)

This photo at the right is apparently of one of the two female suicide bombers whose explosions killed dozens of people in Moscow earlier this week. According to Moscow Times, Dzhennet Abdurakhmanova was a 17 year old girl, and was the widow of Islamist terrorist Umalat Magomedov, who was killed in October by Russian security forces in Chechnya.

She thus fits the profile of the "black widows" who commit terrorist acts against Russian civilians as revenge for the deaths of their husbands.

The bombings have caused enormous anxiety and anger among citizens of Moscow, who fear that they're in store for a series of such bombings.

President Dmitry Medvedev made a surprise visit to Makhachkala, a city in the Caucasus province of Dagestan.

Map: Bombings in Dagestan <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: CS Monitor)</font>

Map: Bombings in Dagestan (Source: CS Monitor)

In Makhachkala, Medvedev told police and security forces to use tougher, "more cruel" measures to fight the "scum" responsible for terrorist attacks, according to Moscow Times. According to the article, Medvedev is using somber dress and rough language to imitate the style of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Medvedev and Putin may be rivals for the office of President in 2012.

It's hard to imagine how much more "cruel" the Russian security forces can be. Their brutality over the last 15 years has caused a great deal of anti-Russian hatred among the Muslims in Russia's Caucasus provinces.

But this is what happens during a generational Crisis era. It's fascinating to watch the level of anger and confrontation growing on both sides, until finally something triggers a full-scale crisis war, re-fighting the bloody civil war of the 1920s.

We've been making similar remarks about the Israelis and the Gaza Palestinians in the last couple of weeks. It's the same process, and will have the same result. I've flip-flopped over the years as to whether the most dangerous region in the world is the Caucasus, the Mideast or Pakistan, but right now, the Caucasus appears to be at the top.

Al-Qaeda terrorism in Russia

An analysis appearing in Russia Today points out that the terrorist attacks in Moscow and Dagestan bear some of the marks of al-Qaeda.

That is, there's little doubt that the terrorist acts were organized by Chechen terrorist leader Doku Umarow, who recently warned the Russian people that "the war is coming to your streets and you will feel it on your own lives and on your own skins."

However, perpetrating terrorist attacks requires more than ideology; it requires logistics, coordination and training. And commentators are saying that the training could have taken place in the tribal areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and that the planning could have been done in coordination with al-Qaeda.

As we've discussed a number of times in the past, al-Qaeda has turned into a kind of "virtual terrorist group," a brand name for loosely linked local Sunni Muslim terrorist groups in countries from the Pacific, through Asia and the Mideast to Africa, and north through central Asia to Russia and the Caucasus. The objective of Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda leaders is to replicate the success of the 1979 Islamic Revolution of Iran to create a Sunni Muslim state in some country. They've tried in Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and other countries, and they've failed so far, but they will not stop until they succeed.

According to Debka's weekly subscriber-only newsletter (forwarded to me by a subscriber), al-Qaeda is well entrenched in Russia's Caucasus provinces, and has been diverting fighters from other countries to that region. A grim picture has emerged: In March alone, at least 41 Russian security personnel and some 32 armed Islamic fighters were killed, with 98 wounded on both sides. The Islamist insurgents carried out 14 shooting attacks and 15 bombing or roadside explosives blasts; detonated at least 4 booby-trapped cars; used anti-tank mines in 5 attacks; and pinpointed Russian security officers in 9 targeted attacks. In all, 57 counter-terror or terrorist incidents took place in the 31 days of March, an average of 1.8 terror-related engagements per day.

Russian leaders are becoming increasingly alarmed by the mounting violence, and are ready to join the U.S. and the west in jointly fighting the war on terror, but they're unwilling to do so because the west refuses to recognize the seriousness of the terrorist threat to Russia. Instead, the Russians note, the west blames Moscow for heavy-handed suppression of ethnic groups in the Caucasus.

I have to agree with the Russian view, but I have a slightly different perspective.

In 2005, ABC News aired an interview with Shamil Basayev, the Islamist mastermind of the horrendous Beslan school terrorist attack that killed hundreds of people, including many young children. (See "Russia infuriated over ABC 'Nightline' interview of Shamil Basayev.")

It was almost beyond belief to me that ABC could give the mass murderer Basayev a platform of 15 minutes of air time to justify his acts. This must be the single most tasteless interview that I've ever seen.

But it makes the point that we're currently discussing. The Russians are infuriated that we expect them to cooperate with us in our war against terror, but then we sermonize and blame Moscow for the same kinds of terrorist acts directed against them.

Additional Links

Ten tax tips for the unemployed. NY Times

Over 25% of all Canadians are literally losing sleep each night, worrying about how they're going to pay off their debts, according to a survey by the Royal Bank of Canada.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Apr-10 News - Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods v terrorists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Apr-2010) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2010 3-Apr-10 News - Russia's President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists

Russian President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists

Al-Qaeda terrorism in Russia

Additional Links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2010
3-Apr-10 News - Russia's President Medvedev urges 'crueler' methods against terrorists