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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Apr-2010
8-Apr-10 News -- Greece is tottering on the brink

Web Log - April, 2010

8-Apr-10 News -- Greece is tottering on the brink

Chaos throughout Asia: Kyrgyzstan, India and Thailand are all in crisis

Greece is 'teetering on the brink of bankruptcy'

That's the conclusion of commentary appearing on Kathimerini, as Greece's situation becomes more desperate. "This country has become synonymous with the blatant manipulation of fiscal data and the inability of the political system as a whole to press ahead with the necessary reforms that every objective analyst of the Greek economy has suggested."

In fact, there are a number of signs that Greece is close to bankruptcy. In a column entitled, "Is Greece about to Default?" the WSJ points out that one of the major signs is the continuing rise in bond yields.

As we reported yesterday, the yield (interest rate) on Greece's 10 year bonds reached 7.1% on Tuesday (contrasted with less than 4% for US bonds or German bonds). On Wednesday, even Greece's short-term bonds were hit, with six month bonds yielding 6.4% (contrasted with less than 1% for short-term US or German bonds). That 6.4% is double what it was the morning before. The article points out that it's this spike in short-term rates that has signaled an imminent default in other cases in the past.

Another sign of potential imminent default is that wealthy Greeks are moving their funds out of Greek banks into foreign banks. Some 10 billion euros were transferred in this way in the first two months of this year. According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph, this pattern replicates the build-up to Argentina's default in 2002.

Both of these events are signs of panic. We've discussed the subject of panic many times on this web site, and how important the role of panic is in Generational Dynamics theory. During generational Crisis eras, public anxiety is always very high, and all it takes is some small event to trigger a panic that starts a major financial crisis or a major war.

What Greece needs now is a very forceful bailout from somebody -- anybody -- but there's no one there. The EU won't do anything -- Angela Merkel and the Germans have seen to that. Perhaps the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will still come through with something, but it may be too late for even that.

Kyrgyzstan government apparently collapses after violent street protests

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

Dozens have been killed as protestors in Kyrgyzstan's capital Bishkek attacked police and security forces with AK-47 assault rifles, and seized the Parliament and other government buildings. Reports indicate that Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov has signed a letter of resignation, according to the Telegraph, but that hasn't been independently confirmed. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, is reported to have fled Bishkek.

Kyrgyzstan's last generational Crisis war was the Soviet occupation that occurred in conjunction with the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. World War II was therefore an Awakening era war for Kyrgyzstan, and the country was not heavily involved. The same was true of Uzbekistan, as I wrote in more detail last year. (See "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan.")

Thus, Kyrgyzstan is deep into a generational Crisis era, and there's a good possibility that the country is on the verge of a crisis war revolution. The Muslim population is poor, and the government perpetrates horrific human rights abuses against the people.

Kyrgyzstan is the epitome of corruption. The US has an important military air base in Manas in Kyrgyzstan, the only US base in Central Asia, and it's used to support operations in Afghanistan. There's also a Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan, and the two bases are a source of political tension between the US and Russia. The reason that both bases are in Kyrgyzstan is because both the US and Russia have provide a great deal of monetary aid to the corrupt government.

If the current situation spirals into a full-fledged revolution, it could spread to other populations in the region -- in Pakistan, in Uzbekistan, or even to the Uighur Muslims in northwest China.

India reacts to Tuesday's Maoist attack

India is still reeling from the violent Maoist ambush in Dantewada that killed 76 men in India's Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) on Tuesday.

The 'Red Corridor' of regions fully or partially controlled by the Maoists (Naxalites) (Source: Asia Times)

The 'Red Corridor' of regions fully or partially controlled by the Maoists (Naxalites) (Source: Asia Times)

The "jawans" in the CRPF are furious that the government permitted this to happen, as reported by the Times of India.

Government officials are still in a state of shock, wondering how to respond. The main question under discussion, according to the Hindustani Times, is whether to launch a full-scale military assault, using air power, against the Maoists. This would inevitably involve the Indian air force bombing Indian soil.

But an analysis in the Asia Times says that such a strategy is very unlikely to succeed. The Maoist insurgency has full or partial control over the "Red Corridor," vast areas of India's mineral-rich states, as shown on the above map. As the article points out, the US military has been unable to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan after nine years, and the Maoists would be at least as difficult a target.

Like Kyrgyzstan, India is in a generational Crisis era, and so the possibility exists that this insurgency could spiral into a full-scale civil war.

Thailand declares state of emergency as red-shirted protestors attack Parliament building

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency after Bangkok's "red shirt" protesters broke into the Parliament building, and lawmakers had to be airlifted to safety, according to the LA Times.

"The government has tried its best to enforce the law, but violations of the law have increased," he said. "Our main goal is to bring the country back to normal and make our law sacred once again."

The protestors are trying to force the government to resign. Many of them support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is strongly favored by the poor in rural areas, but is hated by the city elites.

Although the situation in Thailand appears superficially to be almost the same as the situation in Kyrgyzstan, they're quite different because Thailand is in a generational Awakening era.

Thus, the situation in Thailand is much more similar to the situation in Iran. In both cases, there is no chance whatsoever that the riots will spiral into a full-scale war, but in both cases, the political chaos will continue for years. Abhisit may hope to "bring the country back to normal" again, just as Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would like to bring Iran back to what he considers to be "normal." But that's not going to happen in either country for a long time.

Lifelike female robot may serve as receptionist

The one on the left is a robot. The one on the right is a real live girl. (Source: Fast Company)

The one on the left is a robot. The one on the right is a real live girl. (Source: Fast Company)

In what Fast Company describes as "outright creepy," the Geminoid-F robot has been developed by the Intelligent Robotics lab at Osaka University in Japan.

She has realistic silicone skin, beautiful hair, and teeth that give her a nearly human smile. The robot will be available next month for about $110,000, and she'll be "fabulous" in roles like receptionist in a museum.

As computers become increasingly intelligent, approaching human intelligence, they'll be "packaged" in many innovative ways that look better than a box sitting on your desk.

Stay tuned for the next major news story, sure to be coming soon: Some guy wants the court to let him marry his Geminoid-F.

Additional Links

"Where do we get the free Obama care, and how do I sign up for that?" McClatchy

In Boston, commercial real estate rents are falling, while vacant office space and foreclosures are rising sharply. Boston Globe

A rapidly expanding real estate bubble is at work in greater Vancouver, Canada. The average sale price for a home surged to over $1 million in March. But don't worry. This time it's different. CTV

U.S. consumer credit fell more than anticipated in February, indicating that consumers are pulling back again, after going on a Christmas buying binge. Bloomberg

Cyber attacks on government IT sites by terrorists and foreign entities are growing and becoming more sophisticated, according to a survey by Clarus Research Group commissioned by Lumension. 42% of the respondents believe that the U.S. government's ability to handle these attacks is fair or poor. PR Web

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Apr-10 News -- Greece is tottering on the brink thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Apr-2010) Permanent Link
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