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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Apr-2010
11-Apr-10 News -- Plane crash kills Poland's president

Web Log - April, 2010

11-Apr-10 News -- Plane crash kills Poland's president

Thailand's army shoots on crowd of young 'red shirt' demonstrators, killing 20.

I apologize for the delay in getting this posted.

Katyn massacre commemoration canceled on plane crash killing Polish president

The death of Poland’s president Lech Kaczynski in a plane crash on Saturday is full of irony because the crash occurred in Russia near Katyn, and Kaczynski was on his way to a 70th year commemoration of the Katyn forest massacre. In March of 1940, Josef Stalin signed the order to kill over 20,000 senior Polish officers who were being held as prisoners of war in Katyn forest and three other locations.

The plane traveled from Warsaw, and crashed in Smolensk, near the Katyn forest. <font size=-2>(Source: NY Times)</font>

The plane traveled from Warsaw, and crashed in Smolensk, near the Katyn forest. (Source: NY Times)

The Russians denied the 1940 massacre for many years, blaming it on the Nazis. Since the Poles knew that the Russians had done it, this was a sore point in Russian-Polish relations for many years, until Soviet Union General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev apologized for the massacre in the 1980s.

Lech Kaczynski, born in 1949, grew up in that period of tension, with Poland as a Soviet satellite. Like any prototypical Boomer, he protested. He led anti-Russian movements throughout his life, causing him not to be very well liked in Moscow.

Still, this week's commemorations were historic by themselves, because Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin became the first Russian leader to attend a memorial for the massacre. However, notice that I said "commemorations" - plural. The first commemoration was on Wednesday, and Putin attended, but Kaczynski was not invited to participate in that ceremony, according to the NY Times. Instead, Poland's prime minister Donald Tuck was invited to that one, and a second ceremony was set up on Saturday, which Kaczynski was flying to when his plane crashed.

Thus, the question that everyone is asking today is how the plane crash will affect Polish-Russian relations. It could go either way, according to the NY Times. On the one hand, this was a moment when Russian-Polish relations were renewing, and the crash thwarted that.

On the other hand, the plane was filled with dozens of Poland's top political and military leaders, and so the crash wipes out a large portion of the country's leadership. The new government may get along better with the Russians than the old one.

20 people killed in Thailand as police shoot at demonstrators

The government of Thailand's prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva lost patience on Saturday and ordered the Thai army to fire on "red shirt" protestors. Some 20 demonstrators were killed, hundreds were wounded. Thousands of Bangkok tourists were forced to flee, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Thailand is now at a major crossroads, with basically two choices:

The government officials could say to each other, "Ohmigod! What have we done?" and allow the demonstrators a political "win." Or,

The government can escalate the violence.

All the signs indicate that Thailand will take the first of these choices. However, it's worth pointing out that I thought the same thing about Iran when Awakening era violence first broke out last year after the June 12 elections. Instead, Iran has become increasingly violent towards its young demonstrators.

America's last generational Awakening period was the 1960s and 1970s, and there were plenty of riots, demonstrations, and "long, hot summers." Most Americans were undecided about what to make of the demonstrations. But the shock that was felt when four Ohio Kent State college students were shot and killed by national guardsmen in 1970 was one of the factors leading to the threat of impeachment for President Richard Nixon.

The goal of Thailand's red-shirted protestors is to get Abhisit to resign and call for new elections. My guess is that he'll now be forced to do exactly that. But if he tries to use military force to hold on to power after killing 80 young demonstrators, then Thailand is going to have serious trouble ahead.

Additional Links

The euro zone finance ministers will meet on Sunday to decide how to avoid committing to bailing out Greece while, at the same time, convincing investors they have every intention of bailing out Greece, if necessary. It hasn't worked before. Reuters

Microsoft is still strongly committed to China, even after Google's recent decision to cut back. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Apr-10 News -- Plane crash kills Poland's president thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Apr-2010) Permanent Link
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Katyn massacre commemoration canceled on plane crash killing Polish president

20 people killed in Thailand as police shoot at demonstrators

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Apr-2010
11-Apr-10 News -- Plane crash kills Poland's president