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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Apr-2010
21-Apr-10 News -- Ethnic violence grows in Kyrgyzstan

Web Log - April, 2010

21-Apr-10 News -- Ethnic violence grows in Kyrgyzstan

IMF issues a warning on sovereign debt.

Medvedev orders protection of Russians in Kyrgyzstan as ethnic violence grows

It's been two weeks since Kyrgyzstan's government collapsed after violent street protests.

Kyrgyzstan <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book)</font>

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled from the capital Bishkek, and is currently hiding out in Minsk, Belarus, under the protection of that government, according to the AP.

Kyrgyzstan's new interim government, led by Roza Otunbayeva, used violence to oust Bakiyev, and is now has to deal with increasing ethnic violence. The violence, by indigenous Kyrgyz, is directed against other ethnic groups, especially Turks and Russians, as reported by the Independent. (By the way, remember that Turks originally came from central Asia; Turkey was named after the Turks that settled there, rather than the other way around.)

The violence includes ethnic murders, torching of houses and cars, and robbery.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered his defense minister "to take measures" to protect ethnic Russians living in Kyrgyzstan, according to Bloomberg. According to the CIA Fact Book, the country is 65% Kyrgyz (religion: Muslim) and 12.5% Russia (Russian Orthodox).

News reports do not indicate what "measures" the Russian government plans to take, but one must assume that they would include the introduction of additional Russian soldiers into the country.

Medvedev has been predicting a civil war in Kyrgyzstan. If he's right, then the fighting could spread through the region, and even ignite something in Pakista.

IMF issues a warning about sovereign debt

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a report that the growing volume of government debt is the biggest single risk to the world economy, according to the Independent.

The offending countries include several countries in Europe, but also include the UK and the U.S.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're headed for a major global financial crisis with 100% certainty. However, the event that will trigger the crisis is still a question. The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy had a chain reaction effect after it occurred in 2008, and the bankruptcy of a country could have an even worse chain reaction.

Greek bond rates surge even higher as default approaches

The Financial Times reports that "the unthinkable has become thinkable," and market watchers are now increasingly considering the possibility of a Greek default.

As we've been saying on this web site for weeks, a default is not only "thinkable," it's actually all but certain. The theatre that the Europeans have putting on to pretend to be aiding Greece have been nothing but high comedy.

Meanwhile, bond rates and credit default swap prices surged to new highs on Monday, underlining the fact that something very dramatic is going to happen soon.

As if that wasn't enough bad news, Kathimerini (translation) reports that Greece's unemployment rate also surged, to 11.3 in January, compared to 10.2% in December.

Additional Links

Legislation to help the German long-term unemployed has been put on ice, because the possibility of a Greek bailout has thrown the entire German budget into confusion. Now the Germans have one more thing to hate the Greeks for. Euro Intelligence

Younger workers, in their 20s and 30s, are increasingly being asked to take on responsibilities normally reserved for employees with a lot more work experience, since companies are trying save money and cut labor costs. WSJ

The shadow inventory of foreclosed houses keeps growing larger, and will push home prices lower. CNBC

It's the dawning of the Age of Aquarius in London, where the revival of the 1960s musical Hair celebrates the hippie Boomers of the 1960s. Telegraph

The Eyjafjallajökull (ay-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) volcano may be shifting from a Surtseyan eruption to a more Strombolian mode. CS Monitor

However, the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is right next door to the Katla volcano, and the eruption of one could well mean an eruption of the other. AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Apr-10 News -- Ethnic violence grows in Kyrgyzstan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Apr-2010) Permanent Link
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