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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-May-2010
1-May-10 News -- China's intentions are questioned as Kim Jong-il ages

Web Log - May, 2010

1-May-10 News -- China's intentions are questioned as Kim Jong-il ages

As EU officials meet, Greece's austerity requirements are revealed

S. Korean and Chinese leaders meet to discuss warship sinking

More evidence has been found that indirectly implicates North Korea in the March 26 explosion that sank the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, killing 46.

Since then, an international forensic effort has been mounted, involving experts from S. Korea, the U.S. and Europe. Now Xinhua reports that some suspicious metal and plastic pieces of debris have been collected, and analysis indicates that they are typical of materials found in a torpedo.

The Cheonan sinking has deeply saddened and angered the South Korean people, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has promised "resolute and unwavering" action over the warship sinking, once the investigation has been completed. Many people fear that the investigation will unambiguously point to a N. Korean attack, and that will result in a new civil war in Korea. It's thought that Lee is carefully avoiding accusing N. Korea of anything, to avoid being forced into a declaration of war.

On Friday, Lee met with Chinese president Hu Jintao in Shanghai, to have "serious discussions" over the sinking of Cheonan. Yonhap quotes Hu as offering "condolences and consolation" to the victims of the sinking.

Officials are watching China very closely, because they exert a great amount of influence of the North Koreans. If the investigation concludes that N. Korea was to blame, then Chinese mediation will be essential in preventing a war.

Moreover, talk of a possible complete collapse of the North Korean government has been increasing, according to VOA, because Kim Jong-il is becoming increasingly frail. He suffered a stroke two years ago, and his death would create a power vacuum that bitterly competing factions within the government would try to fill, leading to instability and possible conflict within North Korea itself.

What would China do in those circumstances? It's increasingly believed that China would attempt to annex North Korea, and take control of its rich mines and transport systems, according to WSJ. The CIA World Factbook lists Korea's natural resources as including coal, lead, tungsten, zinc, graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold, pyrites, salt, fluorspar and hydropower.

Newspapers in Seoul are increasingly reporting on concerns that the North is already becoming a Chinese colony, according to World Market Media, and that the Chinese have already started to take over North Korean ports and mining posts.

China is playing a dangerous game, however, since a collapse of North Korea's government could bring millions of North Korean refugees pouring into China itself, creating instability in the entire region.

Terms of Greece's austerity program are revealed, as EU officials meet

EU officials are meeting over the weekend to come up with a bailout package for Greece, so that the country's May 19 payment of 11 billion euros can be made. The final results are scheduled to be announced on Sunday.

In order to get Germany's agreement, Greece will have to agree to tough austerity measures. Euro Intelligence summarizes the demands, as leaked to the Financial Times:

Two to three percentage points increase in value-added tax.
Three-year public sector pay freeze; recruitment frozen.
Abolition of ‘13th and 14th monthly salary’ for public sector workers; 5 per cent cut in allowances. [Note: The rest of us get only 12 months of salary per year, but Greek public sector workers get 13 or 14.]
No renewals for short-term public sector contracts.
Closure of more than 800 out-dated state entities.
Opening up of more than 60 ‘closed-shop’ professions.
Overhaul of pension system: raising average retirement age to 67 for men and women; cutting state corporation pensions. [Note: According to Kathimerini (translation), the retirement age in Greece is 65 for men and 60 for women, versus 67 for Germans. Furthermore, Greeks in many professions can retire ten years earlier. These professions include mine workers, dockers, hairdressers, barbers, musicians and bakers, because they stand all day or they are exposed to dangerous chemicals.]
Privatisation: sales of state corporations; flotations on Athens stock exchange; sales and leasing of state-owned properties.

The BBC quotes Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou on Friday as telling the parliament: "It is a patriotic duty to undertake this, with whatever political cost, which is tiny faced with the national cost of inaction... and indecision."

However, Greek public sector unions have announced plans for massive May Day riots and demonstrations on Saturday, to protest the austerity cuts.

China's World Expo 2010 opens in Shanghai

Chinese President Hu Jintao has opened Expo 2010, the Shanghai world fair.

Ships decorated with flags of participating Expo countries and regions line up on the Huangpu River as the fireworks show opens. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Xinhua)</font>

Ships decorated with flags of participating Expo countries and regions line up on the Huangpu River as the fireworks show opens. (Source: Xinhua)

According to Xinhua, Hu says that the expo highlights China's growing confidence from rising economic clout and its increasing openness in the international community.

Additional links

News you can use: German and UK researchers have developed a "cuddle spray," a nasal spray that makes men more sensitive towards women and babies. BBC

Spain's unemployment rate has reached 20%. Spain's credit rating was downgraded earlier this week. BBC

The home-buyer tax credit expired on Friday at midnight. In the last few days, buyers have "gone nuts" to close deals before the deadline. WSJ

Some European banks may run out of cash and collapse, because many of them have been shut of out international lending markets because of the Greek financial crisis. FT

Double-digit food price inflation in India has been going on for over a year, and is causing hardships. NY Times

Muslims are angry at Belgium's new law banning the Burqa. Al-Jazeera

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-May-10 News -- China's intentions are questioned as Kim Jong-il ages thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-May-2010) Permanent Link
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