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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-May-2010
4-May-10 News -- S. Korea considers military options against N. Korea

Web Log - May, 2010

4-May-10 News -- S. Korea considers military options against N. Korea

Thailand's 'red shirt' protestors consider a compromise proposal.

Military options are evaluated as evidence mounts that N. Korea sank warship

South Korea's Chosun news service quotes Defense Minister Kim Tae-yung as threatening North Korea with retaliation if it's proven that S. Korean warship Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo.

The Cheonan was sunk on March 26 by an explosion, killing 46. South Korean leaders have carefully avoided accusing the North of being responsible for sinking the warship, for fear that saying so would compel them to a declaration of war. Investigative teams from Korea, the U.S., and other countries have been collecting evidence, and they've found aluminum fragments that could have come from a torpedo, according to Chosun.

Meanwhile, the Korea Times reports that a U.S. diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that the U.S. government believes that a North Korean torpedo attack was the most likely cause of the sinking.

Kim Tae-yung's remarks, which reflect that anger of the South Korean people, together with the mounting evidence, indicate that some kind of military response cannot be too far off.

Several military responses of varying severity are being considered by South Korean and U.S. military forces. The response may involve both countries' militaries. According to Chosun, these are among the options being considered:

The least aggressive military option would be a show of military force -- firing antisubmarine bombs and overflying with American B-52 bombers, for example. It would be a surprise to me if the South Korean people would be satisfied with this option.

A blockade of a North Korean submarine based, similar to the U.S. blockade of Cuba in 1962, following the Cuban missile crisis.

Precision bombing of one of North Korea's submarines presumed to have taken part in the attack on the Cheonan.

The military options could be used in conjunction with psychological warfar options, by re-installing the electronic bulletin boards and loudspeakers broadcasting toward the North along the demilitarized zone, according to the article. In addition, economic sanctions could be imposed.

According to Korea Times, South Korean president Lee Myung-bak will host a rare meeting with all commanding offices of the military on Tuesday, to discuss "what lessons the nation has learned" from the Cheonan sinking.

North Korea's Kim Jong-il visits Beijing

A lot of how this all plays out will depend on the actions of North Korea's great benefactors, the Chinese.

North Korean president Kim Jong-il is making a "secret" trip to Beijing, arriving on Tuesday. The trip was not announced by either China or North Korea, although China's People's Daily reported the visit by quoting foreign sources.

The purpose of the visit has not been announced, but it's not hard to infer some of the agenda items:

Kim is there to beg China for money, as North Korea's devastated economy worsens.

Kim is there to beg China to use its diplomacy to keep South Korea for striking militarily in retaliation for the Cheonan sinking.

Kim is there to beg forgiveness for embarrassing China last year by unexpectedly conducting nuclear tests.

Tensions are very high among the three countries right now, and last word on the Cheonan incident has yet to be spoken.

Thailand's PM offers 'Red Shirt' protestors a compromise

Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has offered a proposal to call for elections on November 14, a slight improvement on his previous offer of elections in December, about a year before his term ends.

The "Red Shirt" protestors, who have occupied and shut down a portion of Bangkok's retail district, are demanding elections within three months.

According to an analysis by Reuters, both sides want to be in power in September, for a scheduled reshuffling of military and police leaders.

The Red Shirts represent the poor, rural population that favors the return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. If the Red Shirts can gain power by September, then they might oust some of the generals allied with Thailand's elite that opposed Thaksin.

Some analysts have been predicting the outbreak of civil war if the situation is not resolved quickly. But, as we've written many, many times, Thailand is in a generational Awakening era. This means that there can be spurts of violence, but a full-scale civil war is impossible.

Additional links

The approval rate for Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has plunged to 20.7%, according to a new survey. Japan Times

Polls show that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition parties are going to suffer massive losses in the May 9 elections. The German people still do not want to bail out Greece, but are resigned to the fact that they have no choice, and they blame Merkel. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-May-10 News -- S. Korea considers military options against N. Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (4-May-2010) Permanent Link
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