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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2010
14-May-10 News -- Thailand's army assaults Bangkok protestors

Web Log - May, 2010

14-May-10 News -- Thailand's army assaults Bangkok protestors

Euroland countries talk about ceding control to Brussels.

Waves of violence strike Bangkok, as army attacks protestors

The most dramatic event that occurred in Bangkok on Thursday was when a renegade army officer was shot in the head as he was being interviewed by New York Times reporter Thomas Fuller. The general, Khattiya Sawatdiphol, has been hospitalized and is in critical condition. It's not known who fired the shot.

The shooting occurred as the Thai army was preparing an assault on the barricades of the "red-shirted" protestors that had occupied Bangkok's boutique shopping district, according to Fuller's report in the NY Times. General Khattiya had been seated inside the barricade when he was shot, possibly from a tall building in the distance. His last words before being shot were, "The military cannot get in here."

As we reported at length yesterday, the confrontation pits two ethnic groups against each other. The army and government forces represent the Thai-Chinese fair-skinned elite market-dominant minority, while the red-shirted protestors represent the indigenous dark-skinned laborers, mostly migrants from the northeast.

General Khattiya represents part of Thailand's problem: The army itself has people form both ethnic groups. Khattiya was a "renegade" who had joined the protestors and became known as Seh Daeng ("Commander Red"), according to a BBC profile. He was a loyal supporter of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and he's a member of the more radical wing of the protest movement. After leaving the army, he became a "security adviser" to the protestors, and is said to be loathed by government officials.

Apart from Khattiya, one protestor was killed in Thursday's gunfire. The army barricade will continue on Friday, according to Asia One. The army is deploying 52 armored vehicles to seal off the barricade zone

As we've reported many times, Thailand is in a generational Awakening era (like America and Europe in the 1960s), and so a civil war is impossible. But spurts of violence are possible, and there are two possible paths that Thailand can take. One is the path followed by Iran last year, where hardline clerics dispersed peaceful protestors by a series of killings, jailings, and reported torture. The other path, that was followed by America and Europe in the 1960s, is to be shocked by the violence so far, and turn away from further violence by giving in to the protestors' demands.

What's the stock market looking for today?

The Labor Department reported that 444,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, according to Bloomberg.

When the report first came out, at 8:30 am on Thursday, I was listening to CNBC analyst Jim Iurio give the initial figures. Here's what he said (my transcription):

"The numbers are a little worse than expected, 444. ... The stock market shouldn't like this. [Pause, watching the Dow Industrials futures.] The stock market isn't budging, trading down a hair.

But I think what's important here is that the strength or weakness of the underlying economy is not really what the stock market is looking at right now, so for that, it's not even a concern. ...

The stock market is looking at liquidity. This has been a huge week. Earlier in the week, the central banks told us that no matter what the problem is, they'll provide endless liquidity, and that's what the market is going to trade at."

This is really an amazing statement, but it's a perfect reflection of what's going on today. It makes no difference what the fundamentals are. All that matters is that the U.S. and Europe are pouring huge, almost unlimited amounts of money into the European bailout, and some of that money will flow into the stock market. This is similar to how last year's trillion dollar stimulus package caused the market to rise in the last year.

This is pure bubble philosophy. Iurio is practically admitting that the stock market is in a bubble caused by liquidity. This is insane, but insanity is the only thing that matters today.

Every bubble must burst. And when this bubble bursts, a lot of people are going to be very badly hurt.

Analysts expect much greater central control over eurozone economies

As I've said many times, political bickering is a feature of every country in a generational Crisis era, until one or more "regeneracy events" occur to unify the country for its survival. The country's civic unity is regenerated for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war.

We're seeing the first signs of that in Europe, as last week's near financial meltdown is forcing individual nations to consider giving up some of their autonomy to the central government in Brussels, according to the Independent. The Irish Times quotes even German Chancellor Angela Merkel as calling for "a stronger oversight mechanism for the stability and growth pact and the European Commission."

The European Commission itself has published a paper (PDF) recommending a complete overhaul of the governance procedures of the eurozone.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the direct course is very unlikely. With austerity being forced on Europeans across the continent, general unrest is growing, and Europe is coming closer and closer to a war in the mold of World War I (as opposed to World War II). The negotiations of a more united Europe will not succeed at this time, but the current negotiations will play an important part when the war ends, and the survivors create a new Europe in order to guarantee that there's never be another European war like this one.

Additional links

President Barack Obama has played a pivotal role in convincing European officials to take "resolute action" to rescue the euro with last week's huge bailout. Telegraph and Independent.

Portugal became the latest country to announce severe austerity programs to a stunned population, following Greece and Spain. Portuguese Prime Minister José Sócrates announced a 5% pay cut for senior ministers, and a "crisis tax" on wages and big corporations. Reuters

Fear of a collapse of the euro currency is prompting a panic in buying of gold coins and bars in parts of Europe. Daily Mail

U.S. home foreclosures climbed to a new record in April, indicating that the "shadow inventory" of unsold homes continues to grow. Bloomberg

An article in Thursday's NY Times has a photo of a blackboard containing a very dirty jokes that only Unix gurus can understand. Geekosystem.com

The dreams of thousands of Bengalese who went to Dubai to make good money have had their dreams swept away by the financial crisis. Many of them are now earning paupers' wages, sweeping the streets of Iraq. The Diplomat

The US, China and South Korea should be preparing for the complete collapse of North Korea when Kim Jong-il dies, but the subject is too sensitive for the three countries to discuss it. The Diplomat.

A mysterious blight is destroying the Afghan poppy harvest. Ironically, this is helping the Taliban, since opium prices are surging. The farmers are blaming the US and Nato, but the UN says that it's happening naturally. NY Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-May-10 News -- Thailand's army assaults Bangkok protestors thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-May-2010) Permanent Link
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