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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-May-2010
25-May-10 News -- Belligerent words between North and South Korea

Web Log - May, 2010

25-May-10 News -- Belligerent words between North and South Korea

Britain is moving 'from an age of plenty to an age of austerity'

[A technical problem has caused this to be posted late.]

North and South Korea exchange belligerent words

The major development on Monday was a televised speech by South Korean president Lee Myung-bak outlining retaliation against North Korea, following last week's report that the the North was the guilty party in the sinking of the warship Cheonan on March 26, killing 46.

"S Korea takes punitive measures against DPRK over warship sinking," where DPRK = Democratic People's Republic of Korea = North Korea, is the way that China's news agency Xinhua headlines its article on Lee's speech. These are the major points, according to the article:

"North Korea (DPRK) will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts. I will continue to take stern measures to hold the North accountable.
From now on, the Republic of Korea (South Korea) will not tolerate any provocative act by the North and will maintain the principle of proactive deterrence. If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense."

DPRK-flagged ships will be banned from South Korean waters, and will be forcibly returned if they don't comply.

South Korea will also suspend trade and exchanges between the two Koreas.

The incident will be referred to the United Nations Security Council, for having violated the armistice agreement that ended hostilities in the Korean War in 1954.

"I solemnly urge the North Korean authorities to do the following. Apologize immediately to the Republic of Korea and the international community. Immediately punish those who are responsible for and those who were involved in the incident. These are basic measures that the North has to take before anything else."

South Korea will resume "propaganda activities" against the North.

South Korea and the U.S. will hold previously unplanned military exercises, as a show of force to North Korea.

South Korean citizens may no longer travel to DPRK.

Further investment in DPRK is banned.

The "propaganda activities" mentioned above refer to a program called "The Sound of Freedom," according to JoongAng. The program was suspended in 2004, but now will be reinstated. South Korean loudspeakers on the border will blast propaganda messages into the North.

The North Koreans replied that they will fire at the loudspeakers, shooting to destroy them.

South Korea's defense minister replied that if North Korea attacks South Korean loudspeakers, "then there’s no other choice than to strike back immediately."

So you already have a situation where EITHER there will be a military confrontation OR the North will have to back down OR the South will have to back down.

Why did North Korea sink the Cheonan warship?

An article in Financial Times conveniently lists the "top six theories" about why North Korean president Kim Jong-il ordered the attack. Here they are in brief:

Revenge for a sea battle last November in which one of its ships was damaged.

To gain a propaganda victory for his son, Kim Jong-eun, in order to smooth the way for his succession.

The work of a rogue commander, not ordered by Kim Jong-il at all.

A victory by hardline ideologues in the administration over the more liberal faction that had previously been favored.

A breakdown of command in the North Korean armed forces.

As a distraction from severe economic wores.

It's certainly possible that one or more of these reasons played a part. But as I wrote last week, I'm increasingly convinced that North Korea wants a new war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this would not be surprising at all. It's the worst kind of national self-delusion and fantasy that if life is hell then a war can't be any worse, and will solve all your problems.

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Britain is moving "from an age of plenty to an age of austerity," according to David Laws, chief secretary to the treasury, as the new government announced Ł6 billion worth of immediate spending cuts, with the possibility that 300,000 public sector workers will be laid off. Laws says that the cuts will be made with "progressive values." Irish Times

The European debt crisis is causing yields (interest rates) on all corporate bonds to surge, pushing sales down. Companies have issued $47 billion of debt in May, down from $183 billion in April. The rise in bond yields is the worst since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008. Bloomberg

Child mortality is dropping rapidly around the world. Death rates for children under 5 have been dropping by about 2% a year from 1990 to 2010. Some parts of Latin America, north Africa and the Middle East have had declines as steep as 6% a year. NY Times. As the gloomiest person in the world, it falls to me to point out that this worsens the population explosion and the food shortage, and will mean hundreds of millions of additional deaths in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.

European skies are ash-free for the first time in 40 days, as Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull (ay-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) volcano finally shows signs of settling down. Bloomberg

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-May-10 News -- Belligerent words between North and South Korea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-May-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-May-2010 25-May-10 News -- Belligerent words between North and South Korea

North and South Korea exchange belligerent words

Why did North Korea sink the Cheonan warship?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-May-2010
25-May-10 News -- Belligerent words between North and South Korea