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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-2010
27-May-10 News -- Iran clashes with Russia over nuclear sanctions

Web Log - May, 2010

27-May-10 News -- Iran clashes with Russia over nuclear sanctions

Interbank lending is slowing again, raising concerns of new credit crisis

Iran gets testy after Turkey/Brazil ploy fails

As we described last week, Iran came up with a very clever ploy to preclude Western sanctions. Iran made a deal with Turkey and Brazil to have Brazil enrich Iran's uranium, so that Iran won't do its own uranium enrichment. (See "18-May-10 News -- Iran may have snookered the West, with the help of Turkey and Brazil.")

However, the ploy appears to have failed, as the West is going ahead with sanctions. Furthermore, the sanctions will apparently NOT be vetoed by either Russia or China in the United Nations Security Council. According to Politico, Congressional plans for U.S.-only sanctions will now be delayed to allow the administration to push the U.N. sanctions.

The failure of the Iranian ploy appears to have caused quite a bit of consternation in Iran. According to the Tehran Times, Iran's government is still waiting for the West to approve of the deal with Brazil and Turkey.

More significant is a major clash between Iran and Russia over Russia's agreement to support the sanctions, according to the NY Times. In blunt language, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blasted Russia for bowing to US pressure, and added, "If I were the Russian president, when making decisions about subjects related to a great nation (Iran) ... I would act more cautiously, I would think more."

A Kremlin official shot back, "No one has ever managed to preserve one's authority with political demagoguery. I am convinced, the thousand-year history of Iran itself is evidence of this. The Russian Federation is governed by its own long-term state interests. Our position is Russian: it reflects the interests of all the peoples of greater Russia and so it can be neither pro-American nor pro-Iranian."

This clash with Russia appears to be an act of desperation by an Iranian administration increasingly out of touch with its own people and, perhaps more importantly, not in control of the Revolutionary Guards. (See "Revolutionary Guards in Iran's government - military dictatorship?")

Iran is only a few years into its generational Awakening era, following the Islamic Revolution of the 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1987. At this point in the Awakening era, Ahmadinejad would be facing an enormous amount of political pressure from the young generation born after the war. The massive "green movement" student demonstrations that followed last year's June 12 presidential elections have been temporarily quiesced by means of extreme violence against the demonstrators, but they have not ended. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard itself, which was originally formed to protect the goals of the Islamic Revolution, is now populated by the same young people who have little patience with the austere demands of the old fogie hardliners running the government.

As I've said many times before, my expectation is that Iran will side with the West (including the US and Israel) when forced to choose in the Clash of Civilizations world war, since the Iranian people are far more pro-American and pro-West than the government is.

Ahmedinejad's outburst sounds desperate to me. If it is, then Iran's government may be forced to reform soon.

Additional links

Interbank lending has been showing increasing strain for several weeks, as measured the by "Libor" rate, which measures the interest rates that banks charge one another. Although the libor rate is still below the peaks it reached after the Lehman collapse, the continually increasing rate is raising concerns for a new credit crisis. Telegraph

"I've been drunk many times, and I know that the best way to postpone a hangover is to keep on drinking." -- Marc Faber, in a tv interview, when asked why not use more stimulus packages?

Greece's tourism industry, which was supposed to help the country's recovery, is in crisis. Reservations are down by 30% since last year and cancellations are soaring, because of general strikes and mass protests, and stories of corruption, sleaze and fraud. Spiegel

A recent survey of Japanese bond investors shows that the Japanese no longer trust European bonds. Financial Times

8 reasons why you should care about the world debt crisis. CS Monitor

First human 'infected with a computer virus.' BBC

Syria has supplied Hizbollah with 1,000 ballistic missiles that are now pointed at specific Israeli military and civilian targets. Debka

Prostitutes are blamed for the property bubble in Beijing. Asia Times

Mount Baekdu is a dormant volcano on the border between North Korea and China, and it's increasingly showing signs of being about to erupt. Korea Times

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has vowed to bridge the "trust gap" with Pakistan, and to overcome the strains that have occurred since Pakistan-based militants attacked Mumbai in 2008. BBC

The Mexican government is all but applauding President Obama's plan to send 1200 National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border, because the troops won't be used to enforce immigration law. CS Monitor

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-May-10 News -- Iran clashes with Russia over nuclear sanctions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-May-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-2010 27-May-10 News -- Iran clashes with Russia over nuclear sanctions

Iran gets testy after Turkey/Brazil ploy fails

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-May-2010
27-May-10 News -- Iran clashes with Russia over nuclear sanctions