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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jun-2010
2-Jun-10 News -- Turkey: Gaza incident is 'turning point in history'

Web Log - June, 2010

2-Jun-10 News -- Turkey: Gaza incident is 'turning point in history'

Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama resigns

Turkey's PM Erdogan says that Israel must be punished for Gaza incident

In an angry and emotional hour long speech in Turkey's parliament on Tuesday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the encounter between Israel's navy and the Gaza-bound aid flotilla a "bloody massacre," and a "turning point in history," according to Turkey's Hürriyet news service.

Saying that Israelis "once again showed their ability to perpetrate slaughters," and that they must be "absolutely punished by all means," Erdogan spoke as follows:

"It is no longer possible to cover up or ignore Israel’s lawlessness. This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse. This attack is on international law, the conscience of humanity and world peace. Israel in no way can legitimize this murder. It cannot wash its hand of this blood. ...

We will not turn our back on Palestine, Palestinians and Gaza, even if nobody backs them. Once again we call on Israel to immediately end its inhumane blockade of Gaza."

When I wrote about this yesterday, I wrote that the "Freedom Flotilla" was a moronic stunt, and very dangerous during a generational Crisis era. Here you can already see the reasons I made those remarks.

The situation is analogous to what's happening on the Korean peninsula since the sinking of the warship Cheonan. Both North and South Korea have made threatening statements that will lead them to war unless one or both governments back down. Since governments don't like to back down, a war is a real possibility.

Now we're seeing the same dynamics between Israel and Turkey in the Mideast. Turkey is demanding that Israel be punished, and unless Israel agrees to be punished, Turkey will have to concede. But it's a lot more complicated than that, because other "peace" groups are planning to send their own flotillas to Gaza. Israel is committed to stopping these flotillas, and Erdogan will once again express fury and outrage. If Erdogan decides to provide military protection for a future Gaza flotilla, then the possibility of war will increase substantially.

I'm actually astounded by the rapidity with which Turkish-Israeli relations are disintegrating. A week ago I would have thought that a war this summer between the countries was next to impossible, but today I would have to say that it has a non-trivial probability.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, an eventual split between Turkey and Israel was inevitable. Historically, Turkey was the world's center for Sunni Muslims as head of the Ottoman Empire, prior to its destruction in 1921. Furthermore, Turkey has been a historical enemy of Orthodox Christian Russia, as well as other Orthodox Christian countries, such as Armenia and Greece.

In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, it's expected that Sunni Muslim countries will be allied with Pakistan and China, versus India, Russia, Israel and the West. Thus, Generational Dynamics theory would have to predict a disintegration of Turkish-Israeli relations. The events of this week illustrate how startlingly fast such disintegration can occur.

Israel's armed forces are charged with incompetence

Even many supporters of Israel are charging the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) with incompetence. There are undoubtedly a lot of hard feelings still from the incompetence shown by the IDF in the 2006 war with Hizbollah. (See "How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah.")

The charge this time is that Israel bungled the commando raid. The German magazine Der Spiegel says that Israel "fell into a trap," and it asks three questions that Israel has to answer:

Why did Israeli soldiers shoot at the passengers from helicopters flying overhead?
What did the Israeli navy board the ship when they could have simply blocked the ships' paths?
And why did Israel strike in international waters, long before the fleet had arrived in Israeli waters?

Other critics simply claim that the IDF overreacted -- just as Israel overreacted in the 2006 war with Hizbollah.

Martyrdom on the beaches of Gaza

In fact, it does seem more and more that Islamist terrorists did indeed set a trap for Israel, and the trap worked.

Translations of Palestinian and Arab television programs that appeared late last week indicate that many Islamists were preparing for martyrdom in a military conflict with Israel.

An al-Jazeera television documentary described the attitudes of the "peace activists" on the flotilla as it approached Gaza. According to Palestine Media Watch, activists were chanting references to Khaibar, the name of a village where many Jews were killed by Mohammed's army in 632. In the al-Jazeera documentary, "One woman standing on the ship said that now we are awaiting one of two happy endings: either Martyrdom or the beaches of Gaza."

According to translations by Memri, other Arab media reports on the flotilla participants portray them as writing wills, preparing for martyrdom, and determined to reach Gaza or die.

It seems apparent that the "peace activists" were not participating in a humanitarian mission, but were intending a bloody confrontation with the Israelis. They set a trap for the Israelis, and the Israelis fell into it.

Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip

Here's an explanation from the Washington Post:

Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip <font size=-2>(Source: Washington Post)</font>

Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip (Source: Washington Post)

Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama resigns

Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama on Wednesday, after months of continually falling approval ratings, which are now below 20%, according to Yomiuri.

The most recent drop was triggered by his abandonment of a campaign promise to move the US Marine Corps' military base off of the island of Okinawa. Last month he apologized to the people of Okinawa, saying that he was unable to reach an agreement with the US on a suitable place to move the base to.

However, that wasn't his only problem. Hatoyama had also been embroiled in a money scandal after revelations that his mother had provided him with millions of yen in political funds.

However, it's probably not correct to attribute Hatoyama's resignation simply to his own faults. Japan has had a series of Prime Ministers for the last few years, each of whom had to resign after about a year because of plunging ratings, and some kind of scandal.

As in other countries in a generational Crisis era, political compromise has been replaced almost entirely by political bickering, and this has cost one Prime Minister after another his job.

Additional links

Hollywood actor Kevin Costner has a team that has been working on "centrifugal separator" technology for 15 years, and he claims that his technology could be part of the solution to cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. LA Times

The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that Iran now has enough fissile material to build two nuclear bombs. This news can only further increase the tension in the Middle East. London Times

Al and Tipper Gore, who have been married for 40 years, announced that they intend to separate. Politico

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jun-10 News -- Turkey: Gaza incident is 'turning point in history' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Jun-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jun-2010 2-Jun-10 News -- Turkey: Gaza incident is 'turning point in history'

Turkey's PM Erdogan says that Israel must be punished for Gaza incident

Israel's armed forces are charged with incompetence

Martyrdom on the beaches of Gaza

Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip

Japan's Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama resigns

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jun-2010
2-Jun-10 News -- Turkey: Gaza incident is 'turning point in history'