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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-2010
14-Jun-10 News -- Kyrgyzstan civil war expands into genocide

Web Log - June, 2010

14-Jun-10 News -- Kyrgyzstan civil war expands into genocide

Flemish separatists score big gains in Belgium election

Charges of genocide as Kyrgyzstan civil war expands

Kyrgyzstan <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book)</font>

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

The ethnic civil war in Kyrgyzstan has spread from Osh to Jalalabad. The death toll estimate is now at 500, according to the London Independent. There are 1,000 injuries, and 75,000 refugees fleeing to the border with Uzbekistan.

According to the reports, marauding ethnic Kyrgyz gangs are burning ethnic Uzbeks out of their homes, and have embarked on a killing rampage. Human rights groups are calling the actions "genocide."

I note that most of the reporting seems to be from the Uzbek side. There will undoubtedly be Kyrgyz counterclaims, but they haven't surfaced yet.

As we've been reporting for the last three days, the U.S., Russia and China are all watching this situation nervously, because a wider civil war could destabilize the entire central Asian region.

The government, which took power through a coup in April (see "21-Apr-10 News -- Ethnic violence grows in Kyrgyzstan"), appears unable to control the situation. They've called up the civilian reserves, but they have yet to prove themselves.

The government has begged the Russians for help in quelling the violence. Russia has rejected the request for now, but has sent a batallion of paratroopers to protect Russia's Kant air base, according to Ria Novosti. The Kant base is near the capital, Bishtek, which is nowhere near the violence in Osh.

Former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was defeated in the April coup, is now in exile in Minsk, Belarus. According to the London Times, the Kyrgyz in Osh and Jalalabad are a power base for Bakiyev, while the Uzbeks support the new (interim) president, Roza Otunbayeva. Otunbayeva is accusing Bakiyev of being behind the violence. Bakiyev has issued a statement calling the accusations "shameless lies," and warned that the Kyrgyzstan government is close to collapse.

Flemish separatists claim victory in Belgium election

Belgium <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book)</font>

Belgium (Source: CIA Fact Book)

Since Belgium was created in 1830, it's been two countries in one: 6 million Dutch speakers in the flat, northern lands of Flanders (the Flemish), and 4 million French speakers in the southern region of Wallonia (the Walloons).

In the elections on Sunday, the party to win 29% of the votes in Flanders, the most votes of any party, was N-VA, the New Flemish Alliance, which advocates that Flanders break away from Wallonia and become an independent member of the EU, according to the London Times. The second place winner, with 26% of the votes, is the Socialist Party, which opposes a breakup.

According to the article, many Flemish voters are increasingly frustrated at having to subsidize social security bills in the poorer, French-speaking south, where the collapse of traditional industry has led to much higher unemployment than in the north.

The situation is worsed by the fact that Belgium's debt-to-GDP ratio is set to exceed 100% this year or next, according to Bloomberg. Belgium is not one of the "PIIGS" nations, but its debt ratio is the third highest in Europe, behind Greece and Italy. According to an editorial comment in the Times article, "The unhappy marriage of the parsimonious Germanic north and spendthrift Latin south is often cited as a microcosm for the centrifugal forces undermining the EU’s own response to the financial crisis."

As we reported a couple of days ago, the Netherlands government is in chaos following a stunning election victory by right-wing parties. This is part of a general political alignment occurring in countries around the world, including the United States, as these countries go deeper into a generational Crisis era.

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Tens of thousands of Germans on Saturday protested against Chancellor Angela Merkel's austerity package, which will cut thousands of federal government jobs, and will slash welfare and unemployment benefit expenditures. Reuters. A new poll finds that Germans expect Merkel's government to collapse before the next federal elections. Bloomberg.

Japan is another country in political chaos, following last week's resignation of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, after he failed to deliver on his election promise of closing the American military base on Okinawa. Hatoyama's resignation is said to be a big relief to the Obama admnistration, who believe that there is no better location available for the base than Okinawa, despite the base's unpopularity there. World Press

A report by the London School of Economics accuses Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of funding and training Taliban militants in Afghanistan. The report also says that President Asif Ali Zardari visited with Taliban leaders earlier this year, a claim that a presidential spokeswoman dismissed as "absolutely spurious." Daily Times. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, funding by the largely Sunni ISI of the Sunni Taliban sounds quite plausible, in order to counter influence by the Indians, but support from the Shia president Zardari does not sound plausible.

The 8 most common types of dreams, and what they mean. LemonDrop

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jun-10 News -- Kyrgyzstan civil war expands into genocide thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Jun-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-2010 14-Jun-10 News -- Kyrgyzstan civil war expands into genocide

Charges of genocide as Kyrgyzstan civil war expands

Flemish separatists claim victory in Belgium election

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-2010
14-Jun-10 News -- Kyrgyzstan civil war expands into genocide