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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Jun-2010
22-Jun-10 News -- Turkey masses troops on Iraq border

Web Log - June, 2010

22-Jun-10 News -- Turkey masses troops on Iraq border

Violence flares again in Kyrgyzstan

Turkey sends thousands of troops to Iraq border after PKK Kurd terrorism

Thousands of Turkish troops are massing on the border with Iraq, according to Reuters, following Saturday's surprise terrorist attack on Turkish military units, killing 11, by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The PKK attacks "sent shockwaves across the nation and [are] fueling a rising anger that is dangerous in terms of inter-communal harmony between Turks and Kurds," according to an analysis in Turkey's Hurriyet news service. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "annihilate" the PKK, and promised that they would "drown in their own blood."

Erdogan became a national hero in recent weeks because of his blistering condemnation of Israel after the confrontation with the Gaza "freedom flotilla," according to Associated Press.

But the PKK attacks have now turned some Turkish public opinion against Erdogan. In particular, he's being blamed for offering an "opening" to the PKK last year, in an attempt at reconciliation, but his attempt was ridiculed by the PKK, and many now see it as a humiliating mistake. The result is an empowering of Erdogan's political opposition.

Erdogan has announced that he's implementing a new anti-terror strategy. The role of the troops on the Iraqi border has not been announced, but an invasion of northern Iraq may be part of it.

Supreme Court upholds Patriot Act provision limiting some free speech

A provision of the Patriot Act that makes it illegal to provide any "material support" to foreign terrorist organizations was upheld by the Supreme Court by a 6-3 decision, according to CNN.

The case in question involved an American group claiming to be giving advice on peaceful activities to the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. The court ruled that such activity could be deemed illegal, even though doing so limited free speech guaranteed by the First Amendment.

I believe that I can safely claim that this would never have happened in the 1990s. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, when a country enters a generational Crisis era, the pendulum swings away from individual rights and towards national security.

I have had a number of people express concern to me over the loss of individual rights during the last few years. Some blamed it on President Bush, but now we see it happening in President Obama's administration.

This is what happens in any generational Crisis era. It happened in the Civil War, and it happened during World War II. However, when the Crisis era ends, the pendulum swings back towards individual rights again.

Renewed violence in the city of Osh in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

Kyrgyzstan (Source: CIA Fact Book)

At least one person was killed in new clashes between Kyrgyz security forces and ethnic Uzbeks, near Osh on Monday, according to the BBC. This follows last week's violence that produced thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees.

The following interesting map appeared on the BBC web site:

Kyrgyzstan: Main pockets of ethnic Uzbek population (Source: BBC)

Kyrgyzstan: Main pockets of ethnic Uzbek population (Source: BBC)

If you compare this map to the one above it, you can see how the dividing line between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in the Fergana Valley is rather arbitrary, and was defined for some political purpose by Josef Stalin in the 1920s-30s.

The concern is that there could be repeated incidents of violence, and that they could expand into a larger civil war.

Keynesian view of debt

Keynesian view of debt (Source: Mish Shedlock)

Keynesian view of debt (Source: Mish Shedlock)

From Michael 'Mish' Shedlock's blog.

Additional links

The recent sharp plunge in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is raising a great deal of concern from the analysts at Barclays Capital. "We regard the index as a lead indicator for the global economy, and while it is not yet heralding a major downturn, the 9-day RSI is at levels consistent with previous lows." FT Alphaville

More than 1/3 of the mortgage borrowers who have enrolled in the administration's program to save homeowners from foreclosure have had to drop out. So far, only 27% of those enrolled have been helped. Associated Press

A new US State Department travel warning advises all US citizens to refrain from any travel to the Gaza Strip. US State Dept.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that Iran's government is turning into a military dictatorship, as the Revolutionary Guards take control, and the hardline religious leaders are sidelined. Washington Times. This is consistent with the view that Iran's Awakening era climax will come through a generational change in the Revolutionary Guards. (See "Revolutionary Guards in Iran's government - military dictatorship?")

Chaos and disappointment -- the World Cup Football (Soccer) championships are turning into a debacle for the top European teams. Spiegel

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jun-10 News -- Turkey masses troops on Iraq border thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Jun-2010) Permanent Link
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