24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims - 24-Jul-2010 - Generational Dynamics

South China Sea, with blue line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory

As I've reported in the past, China is very aggressively claiming that the entire South China Sea region, including the Paracel and Spratly Islands and some 200 other islands, is China's sovereign terrority, and that they have the right to prohibit foreign ships from entering that region.

On Friday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a press conference in Hanoi at a meeting of the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN). For the first time, a high level US official confronted China on their South China Sea claims. Here's what she said, according to the official transcript:

"We also discussed a number of other important topics: climate change, trading and economic integration, democracy and human rights. And I took the opportunity along with a number of my ASEAN and ASEAN Regional Forum colleagues to set forth my government’s position on an issue that implicates the security and prosperity of the region, the South China Sea.

I’d like to briefly outline our perspective on this issue. The United States, like every nation, has a national interest in freedom of navigation, open access to Asia’s maritime commons, and respect for international law in the South China Sea. We share these interests not only with ASEAN members or ASEAN Regional Forum participants, but with other maritime nations and the broader international community.

The United States supports a collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes without coercion. We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant. While the United States does not take sides on the competing territorial disputes over land features in the South China Sea, we believe claimants should pursue their territorial claims and the company and rights to maritime space in accordance with the UN convention on the law of the sea. ...

I think that 12 participants raised the South China Sea and general maritime navigation and claim issues in our discussion. Because if you look at a map of this region, there are many countries that are increasing their trade, their commercial maritime traffic. There is a lot of activity. This is some of the busiest sea lanes in the world, and there’s a concern that we all abide by the international rules in order to determine how to proceed and certainly, the 12 participants including the United States, that raise this issue would want to see the application of the principles agreed to previously by ASEAN, the existing international laws and regulations and the custom of how all these countries in this region can share this common space of the oceans."

Clinton's words were not particularly bellicose, but the Chinese, who sometimes become almost hysterical when confronted with criticism, were definitely unhappy with this statement, according to Reuters. The article quotes an unnamed diplomat describing the private reaction of Clinton's counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. Yang made "a very strong and emotional statement ... He was distinctly not happy."

This reminds me of a statement by Sha Zukang, China's U.N. ambassador, in an interview with a BBC reporter in 2006. I've never seen this interview reported anywhere else, but I transcribed this myself because I was so startled at hearing Sha screaming at the top of his lungs at the BBC interviewer. (See "Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan.") He screamed the following:

"The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by whomever, China will have no choice but to [use] whatever means available to my government. Nobody should have any illusions on that. ...

It's not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people."

[With regard to the U.S.'s constant criticism of China's rapid militarization:] It's better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet. That's much, much better. China's population is 6 times or 5 times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It's high time to shut up. It's a nation's sovereign right to do what is good for them. But don't tell us what's good for China. Thank you very much."

This is the same reaction that China always exhibits. They are reacting the same way with regard to the South China Sea as they are with Taiwan, and a military confrontation is possible at any time.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the U.S. and China are headed for a war with absolute certainty. This war might begin in Taiwan or in the South China Sea or in central Asia.

North Korea promises a 'sacred war' and 'physical response' to war games

Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan -- called East Sea and West Sea, respectively, by S. Korea

North Korea also attended the same ASEAN conference, and responded to the plans for joint U.S.-South Korea naval exercises planned in the Sea of Japan for July 23-25, with additional exercises planned for the Yellow Sea in September. The exercises were scheduled after evidence showed that North Korea was at fault for the torpedo attack that caused the South Korean warship to sink, killing 46.

A North Korean spokesman threatened a "physical response" to the military exercises, but did not say what that response would be, according to the Guardian. "It is a threat to the Korean peninsula and the region of Asia as a whole." He said the drills harked back to 19th-century gunboat diplomacy and violated North Korea's sovereignty. "And [our] position is clear: there will be physical response to the threat imposed by the United States militarily."

Later in the day, the BBC reported that the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) was quoting the National Defense Commission as saying, "All these war manoeuvres are nothing but outright provocations aimed to stifle the Democratic People's Republic of Korea [DPRK = North Korea] by force of arms. The army and people of the DPRK will start a retaliatory sacred war of their own style based on nuclear deterrent any time necessary in order to counter the US imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces deliberately pushing the situation to the brink of a war."

Although this kind of bluster is not uncommon from North Korea, there's no doubt that tensions are very high in the region, and will continue to be high for a while to come.

Additional links

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Lebanon's parliament is acting to pass laws to take advantage of huge gas and oil reservoirs that the Israelis have discovered off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon. Media Line

Members of Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai's staff are leaving because he's thought to be favoring Pashtun regional leaders, giving less favorable treatment to Hazari, Tajik and Uzbek leaders. Washington Post

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2010
24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims

Hillary Clinton confronts China on South China Sea claims

North Korea promises a 'sacred war' and 'physical response' to war games

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2010 24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims

Hillary Clinton confronts China on South China Sea claims

North Korea promises a 'sacred war' and 'physical response' to war games

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2010
24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims