	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Jul-2010
27-Jul-10 News -- Kashmir protests erupt again

Web Log - July, 2010

27-Jul-10 News -- Kashmir protests erupt again

EU will provide 10 million euros to Yemen

Generational Dynamics on BigPeace.com

I am now a contributor to Andy Breitbart's BigPeace.com where I am continuing to write non-partisan analyses of world events, based on Generational Dynamics theory.

My first two published articles are as follows:

‘U.S. and China are Headed for a Generational Crisis War’
http://bigpeace.com/jxenakis/2010/07/26/u-s-and-china-are-headed-for-a-generational-crisis-war/
Posted July 26: The North Koreans are threatening a 'sacred war' and 'physical response' to the joint U.S.-South Korean naval exercises taking place in the Sea of Japan, and soon in the Yellow Sea. This is typical of North Korea's bluster, but the confrontation between the U.S. and China is far more significant.
Iraq and Afghanistan: Generational Differences in War
http://bigpeace.com/jxenakis/2010/07/20/iraq-and-afghanistan-generational-differences-in-war/
Posted July 20: On Tuesday of last week, Talib Hussein, a trusted Afghan soldier, launched a well-planned attack on his British soldier comrades, killing 3, and fled the camp. A spokesman for the Taliban claimed that he was a “sleeper,” planted in the British ranks to carry out the killings. This statement was evidently a little joke for credulous Western journalists and politicians.

This will hopefully provide Generational Dynamics with a much wider audience.

Kashmir protests erupt again after death of militant in custody

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

After weeks of strikes and protests, life in Kashmir was being described as "normal" over the weekend. But the relief was short-lived after the death, allegedly in the hands of the police, of Tariq Ahmad Dar. Dar had been arrested on charges of being involved in militant activities, according to DNA India. Separatist militants are demanding that India-controlled Kashmir be given independence.

According to the pro-militant Kashmir Media Service, Dar was an innocent youth who was arrested and tortured to death while in custody. His body was returned to his family on Saturday evening.

The police have promised a full investigation, but most shops, businesses and schools were closed and streets were deserted on Monday, as separatist militants called for five days of strikes and demonstrations, according to the Pakistan Daily Times.

Kashmir and Jammu were a major site of the extremely bloody war between Hindus and Muslims after Partition in 1947 (when the India subcontinent was partitioned into Pakistan and India). After the war, Kashmir and Jammu were split into Pakistani-controlled and India-controlled regions, separated by a "line of control" (LoC). Since then, Pakistan and India have fought two non-crisis wars over the region, and it's been a continuing source of unrest, terrorist attacks, and violence.

Prior to 9/11/2001, most of the terrorist violence in Pakistan and India was directly related in one way or another to Kashmir, which has become a highly emotional symbol of the differences between Sunni Muslims and Hindus in Pakistan and India. However, once the war in Afghanistan began, the war presented an opportunity for al-Qaeda to directly attack India's ally, the United States. If the United States and Nato withdraw from Afghanistan, then al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and other Islamist terrorists would declare victory, and violence would quickly surge in Kashmir, possibly triggering another war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that India and Pakistan are headed for a major new war, re-fighting the war between Hindus and Muslims of 1947-48. Both countries have nuclear weapons. Pakistan will be supported by China, and India will be supported by the US and Russia, so this war will quickly spiral into a nuclear war and a world war.

Where the money goes

Here's a great graphic from Jim Quinn's Burning Platform blog:

Budget income and outgo <font size=-2>(Source: TheBurningPlatform.com)</font>

Budget income and outgo (Source: TheBurningPlatform.com)

Financial pundits look at these figures, and they talk about ways to save money -- cut a weapons system from defense, cut fraud and abuse from medicare, etc.

Unfortunately, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not the way it's going to work.

First off, no substantial cuts will be made anywhere until a major crisis occurs.

Once the major crisis occurs, then nothing is sacred. Medicare and Social Security may be canceled entirely, simply because there will be no money to pay for them. There's no way to predict how it will unfold, but we can be sure that everyone will be miserable.

Additional links

With Yemen's government facing the possibility of total collapse, the EU is providing 10 million euros in emergency aid to respond to urgent humanitarian needs. Eurasia Review

Within 24 hours after agreeing to a ceasefire, Army-backed tribes and Houthi rebels resumed fighting in northern Yemen. UAE's The National

Tuesday will be the third day of joint South Korea - US naval drills in the Sea of Japan. The two allies will fire naval guns and artillery at an abandoned submarine disguised as a North Korean submarine in the East Sea. Arirang

A 'must read' article describing the "trust deficits" among the various players in Asia -- Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and the US. Pakistan Daily Times

The recent ethnic violence between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz in Kyrgyzstan may have been caused by organized crime in the country. Eurasia Net

Corruption cases in Thailand may accomplish what the Red-Shirt protestors were unable to do: Force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to resign. Washington Times

Turkey's influence in the Mideast and Asia continues to grow at the expense of Iran. This is consistent with the Generational Dynamics view that, when forced to choose, Iran will side with the West. VOA

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jul-10 News -- Kashmir protests erupt again thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Jul-2010) Permanent Link
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