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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Aug-2010
5-Aug-10 News -- Multiple crises overwhelm Pakistan

Web Log - August, 2010

5-Aug-10 News -- Multiple crises overwhelm Pakistan

In Turkey, a confrontation between the government and the army is building

Anti-Taliban hero killed by suicide bomber in Peshawar, Pakistan

Sifwat Ghayoor, the police chief who has been leading the jawans (troops) fighting the Taliban terrorists, was killed by a suicide bomber on Wednesday, along with three bodyguards, according to Dawn. The attack took place in Peshawar, in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province. This is the new name of the former North-West Frontier Province.

Ghayoor was a hero, according to the Daily Times. The article quotes him as saying, "An officer has to lead from the front," when asked to protect himself more. "If I do not go to spots (after terrorist attacks) my jawans will get demoralised and this is precisely what I don’t want to happen." According to the article, "Such brave men are far and few between. He is no longer with his family, friends and well-wishers. But he will live in everyone’s hearts and minds as long as Pakistanis continue to sacrifice their lives for their country."

Millions of people in Pakistan displaced by floods

I've only briefly mentioned the floods in Pakistan before now, but now it's becoming increasingly apparent that they'll have geopolitical importance, as illustrated by the above suicide attack.

Entire villages were flattened and washed away by the Pakistan floods <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Entire villages were flattened and washed away by the Pakistan floods (Source: BBC)

This is the worst flood that Pakistan has seen since 1929 (before the country even existed as a country). Hundreds of villages have been flattened and washed away, according to the BBC.

Almost the entire Indus River valley has been flooded, destroying most bridges <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Almost the entire Indus River valley has been flooded, destroying most bridges (Source: BBC)

America's Katrina floods in 2005 affected New Orleans and surrounding areas, but this flood has literally affected most of Pakistan. As you can see from the above map, the flooding has wiped out villages from the top of Pakistan to the bottom, along the Indus River. Millions of people have lost their homes. The rain is continuing, and is not expected to let up until the weekend.

"All the major roads, bridges have been destroyed and so are the police stations, administration buildings, telephone exchange. Thousands of houses have been razed to the ground by the storm and at least one million people have been homeless," according to an official quoted by the Hindustani Times.

The result is an opportunity for militants. One official is quoted as saying, "Militant commander Mullah Fazlullah [leader of TTP = Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban] has announced a Taliban rebound plan in the Swat valley through a video message and now the whole area is inundated with storms, limiting the movement of the military and wiping out all the infrastructure."

Opportunities for the Taliban

Fazlullah's announcement shows indicates that the Taliban expect to take full advantage of the situation, while Pakistan's army is overwhelmed, attempting to save lives and provide shelter, food and clothing for the survivors.

According to an analysis in the Asia Times, all operations by the army against militants have been put on hold, giving the Taliban and other terrorist groups much more freedom. Furthermore the with all main bridges collapsed in some regions, the situation could be affected for a year.

The floods have also severely affected the flow of supplies to Nato forces in Afghanistan. Normally, these supplies arrive in port in Karachi, and travel by truck through the Khyber Pass in the tribal areas to Afghanistan, but many of these roads are closed now.

Violence continues in Karachi, with an al-Qaeda connection

We've been reporting on the violence in Karachi, and it continued on Wednesday when unidentified attackers hurled a grenade at a Karachi mosque during evening prayers, according to Reuters.

The original violence was triggered by the assassination of Raza Haider, a Shia Muslim and leader of the MQM political party. According to the Daily Times, The Karachi Police are investigating the role of TTP (Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban) in the assassination. According to the article, the assassination was masterminded by an anti-Shia terror group affiliated with TTP, who are Sunnis and ethnically Pashtun.

There is an interesting historical analysis of the city of Karachi in the Asia Times. According to the article, Karachi was largely a business-oriented city, a cosmopolitan home to many ethnic groups.

The first fault line emerged after the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, according to the article. Karachi became one of the biggest refugee camps for Afghans fleeing the war. This provided a big boost for religious organizations and in 1983 the first large-scale Shia-Sunni riots broke out. This also occurred near the end of a generational Awakening era, a typical time for this kind of riot to occur, but then to fizzle quickly.

9/11 changed the allegiances of some of the groups that had originally favored the U.S. According to the article, all jihadi organizations and Pashtuns are in one camp. They are lined up against the MQM, the Sunni Tehrik (an anti-Taliban Sunni group), and all Shia groups. It's a highly explosive situation.

According to the article, al-Qaeda's strategy in Pakistan all along is to set up "war centers" all across Pakistan, in order to force the army to spread itself too thin. Thus, I would assume that al-Qaeda leaders are thanking Allah tonight for the massive floods, as they allow al-Qaeda and the Taliban to pursue their strategy.

Additional links

In Turkey, a confrontation is building between the pro-Islam government of president Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey's secular army, which is accused of a coup plot, polarizing the country. Eurasia Net

The danger in withdrawing US troops from Iraq was never a civil war, as many pundits claimed, but influence and/or invasions from neighboring countries -- Turkey, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. Already, the 5-month-old effort to form a new government in Iraq has become snarled in the battle for influence, with rival nations lining up behind the factions and political leaders shuttling among neighboring capitals for talks with their patrons. LA Times

There were reports on Wednesday morning that Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been the target of an assassination attack by a homemade explosive device, but officials later denied this and said that the sound was a firecracker welcoming Ahmadinejad. NY Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Aug-10 News -- Multiple crises overwhelm Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Aug-2010) Permanent Link
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