10-Aug-10 News -- North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea - 10-Aug-2010 - Generational Dynamics

Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan -- called East Sea and West Sea, respectively, by Korea. NLL = Northern Limit Line - the line defining North Korea's territorial waters

Acting like petulant teenagers on Monday, the North Koreans fired 130 rounds of artillery into the Yellow Sea, according to Yonhap.

Most of the artillery shells landed in the North Korean side of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the line defining North Korea's territorial waters. However, some of them splashed into the water south of the NLL.

At America's State Department press briefing on Monday, assistant secretary Philip J. Crowley said that animal rights activists should be complaining about the fish that were killed:

"QUESTION: On North Korea. The U.S. has been urging the North Koreans to stop further provocation, but today, North Korean military fired more than a hundred rounds of artillery into borders (inaudible) – border of South Korea. So I can I ask a reaction to this particular incident?

MR. CROWLEY: I’m sure it resulted in a lot of dead fish and we certainly hope that PETA will protest. It is not a helpful sign by North Korea and this is exactly the kind of behavior we would like to see North Korea avoid.

QUESTION: But just to continue on North Korea. I mean, since they – you passed your UN Security Council resolutions warning against further provocation, I mean, they seem to be doing a host of things. I mean, the shipping boat was just the other day was just one. Then there are continued little small skirmishes that we’ve seen. I mean, is there a concern that there is going to be continued provocation by North Korea, one of which might not just be left to joke about later?

MR. CROWLEY: Again, based on – if past is prologue, are we likely to see more provocations? Regrettably, the answer is we’re likely to see more provocations. All we can continue to communicate to North Korea is that there will be no reward for these provocations. North Korea will continue to be isolated. We’ll continue to work with the international community to fully implement Resolution 1874, and we will continue to find ways as we’ve talked about to put pressure on the North Korean Government to change course. As to what North Korea will do, my crystal ball is not that effective.

QUESTION: P.J., I presume that your initial comments there were a bit tongue – you were trying to be tongue and cheek, yes? I just want to make sure that – you’re not suggesting that the only thing that needs to be protested here is the death of a bunch of fish.

MR. CROWLEY: No –

QUESTION: I mean, you want PETA to protest this? Are you willing to protest it as a provocation?

MR. CROWLEY: Well, we have –

QUESTION: With (inaudible) intention to be –

MR. CROWLEY: We have made our views known to North Korea directly and repeatedly. We want to see North Korea cease its provocative actions. We want to see North Korea find a way to work constructively with its neighbors. We want to see North Korea reduce tensions. The fact that they have sunk a North Korean ship[i], we are aware that they have taken a fishing vessel in the high seas. It’s unclear the specific circumstances; South Korea is investigating that incident. But certainly the firing of a very large number of rounds in the region is the last thing that we want to see and is certainly not the best way to reduce tensions.

It’s unclear to us exactly what North Korea feels it is trying to achieve through this ongoing chest thumping that it has engaged in. All we can say is that we will continue to work effectively and closely with South Korea, other countries in the region, and there will be no reward for North Korea, for these provocations."

As you can see, the questioner was not impressed by Crowley's little joke about dead fish and the animal rights organization PETA.

However, the entire interchange indicates how directionless the policy towards North Korea is. This is because no direction is possible.

The North Koreans seem to be attempting to provoke a war. The North Koreans are going through a succession crisis, as President Kim Jong-il is old and frail. The North Koreans have a million man army ready to march south into Seoul, and they undoubtedly fantasize uniting North and South Korea until their control.

If the North Koreans are intent on provoking a war, there's little that the South or the Americans can do about it, except continuing with things like the naval exercises as a show of force, so that the North Koreans will understand that winning a war will not be as easy as their fantasies tell them.

The South Koreas are still furious about the sinking of the Cheonan, killing 46, and they're undoubtedly also furious that the North seems to have gotten away with it.

Thus, tensions are still great on both sides, and are probably growing. Both sides are pushing the limits of provocation, and if one side or the other takes a step too far, the result would be a major war.

Mia Farrow contradicts Naomi Campbell in war crimes trial

The prosecution of former Liberian president Charles Taylor on charges of aiding the rebels in the Sierra Leone crisis civil war in the 1990s continues to hinge on the question of whether Charles Taylor gave supermodel Naomi Campbell a diamond at a 1997 dinner for Nelson Mandela. For, if he did, it would indicate that it was a "blood diamond" that Taylor had obtained from the rebels for large sums of money and weapons.

Several days ago, we reported that Naomi Campbell testified that she did receive some "dirty pebbles" from two men who knocked on her door in the middle of the night, but she didn't bother to ask who they were from because "I get gifts all the time: sometimes in the middle of the night without knowing who they are from. It is quite normal for me."

Actress Mia Farrow had also been at the 1997 Mandela event, and her court testimony on Monday contradicted Campbell. The LA Times quotes Farrow as saying that she spoke to Campbell the next morning and, "She said in the night she had been awakened by men knocking at her door and they had been sent to her by Charles Taylor, and they had given her a huge diamond," Farrow said, adding that Campbell had been "quite excited" about it.

Meanwhile, the Telegraph has published the above 1997 photo of Naomi Campbell nuzzling Nelson Mandela.

So it remains to be seen how much bearing all this supermodel testimony will have on whether Charles Taylor is convicted. He is charged with 11 counts of instigating murder, rape, mutilation, sexual slavery and conscription of child soldiers during wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone in which more than 250,000 people were killed. He denies all the charges.

Generational analysis of Kashmir

An expert analysis of the situation in Kashmir, published by Eurasia Review, has a generational flavor.

"In the 63 years of Kashmir’s association with India, there have been many agitations and upheavals. However, the scale, the sentiment, the emotions, and the total involvement of the population seen at present are unprecedented. A strange frenzy seems to have overtaken the entire population, be it the young children, the teenagers, the women, and the elders. They are absolutely fearless of the armed soldiers and are facing bullets with their bare chests. The State Government has ceased to exist for all practical purposes. The Central Government is confused and paralyzed. They have absolutely no idea as to how the fire in Kashmir can be doused. On the contrary, instead of cooling tempers they are adding fuel to the fire by sending more troops. Kashmir is already known as the most militarised area of the world."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the young people that this paragraph talks about are in the "Hero" archetype, just like America's World War II GI generation, and just like today's Millennial generation (Generation Y).

Kids in Hero archetype generations start out as a generation in waiting -- waiting for the day when they'll go without hesitation to save the society and its way of life from the enemy, whoever that may be.

Additional links

Death rates in Moscow have nearly doubled to 700 per day, compared to a normal 380 per day. City morgues are dangerously close to filling up, as the smog from the wildfires is unabated. Moscow News

German authorities have permanently shut down the Taiba Mosque in Hamburg. The September 11 suicide pilot Mohammed Attah had attended the mosque, and had used his contacts there to plot the 9/11 attacks. Deutsche Welle

Torrential rains continued to make the Pakistan floods even worse. The apparent incompetence of the government in handling the emergency has further damaged its stature, and given increased stature to the army. McClatchy

Two Demcratic Congressman are going to hold up $100 million in aid to Lebanon's army that had previously been approved. The aid was blocked after the recent deadly border clash between Lebanon and Israel. Telegraph

The U.S. is not only conducting naval exercises with the South Koreans, but it's also doing so with the Vietnamese. A U.S. warship will dock in Vietnam on Tuesday as part of week long naval exercises. The exercises will take place in the South China Sea, and will be sure to anger the Chinese. Bloomberg

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2010
10-Aug-10 News -- North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea

North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea

Mia Farrow contradicts Naomi Campbell in war crimes trial

Generational analysis of Kashmir

Additional links

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2010 10-Aug-10 News -- North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea

North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea

Mia Farrow contradicts Naomi Campbell in war crimes trial

Generational analysis of Kashmir

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Aug-2010
10-Aug-10 News -- North Korea fires artillery shells into Yellow Sea