	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-2010
17-Aug-10 News -- Iran announces new uranium enrichment centers

Web Log - August, 2010

17-Aug-10 News -- Iran announces new uranium enrichment centers

'Hindenburg Omen' predicts stock market crash

Iran announces ten new uranium enrichment centers

Western governments are alarmed by reports by the state-controlled Press Tv news service that Iran will begin construction of ten new uranium enrichment centers next year.

Currently, Iran's Natanz enrichment facility is enriching uranium to a level of 20%, and another facility is already under construction. An Iranian official is quoted as saying, "Studies for the location of 10 other uranium enrichment facilities have ended. The construction of one of these facilities will begin by the end of the (current Iranian) year (March 2011) or start of the next year."

Iran claims that they need to produce 20% enriched uranium for a medical research reactor, but former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright, in an interview with the LA Times says that these reasons aren't credible.

According to Albright, Iran already makes far more than enough 20% uranium to fuel the medical research center. He asks, "Why are they doing this? This could just be centrifuge people trying to be more efficient, or it could be that they want to make 20% material that is way beyond what they need for the research reactor, so you do have to ask: Is there a hidden weapons motivation?"

This comes at a time when many people are wondering if either Israel or the U.S. is planning a military strike to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities. The Arab countries don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons either, and both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have recently indicated that they might approve military action.

Iran's statements on Monday were alarming. One would not be blamed for wondering if Iran were intentionally trying to provoke an actual attack.

Iran's strategy

I've described Iran's strategy many times, but a summary is appropriate here.

Iran's last crisis was was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Like any crisis war, it unified the country behind its leaders.

Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and last year experienced massive student protests, along with political opposition that's expected to last for years. The geriatric leaders are desperately searching for a strategy that will unify the country again behind its leaders, just as occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.

The strategy they're using is the strategy that worked in 1979 -- blame everything on the Great Satan (the U.S.), and even provoke a military action that will force the population to support its leaders, just as the Iraqi invasion of Iran did. (See "China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount"),

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this strategy works during a generational Crisis era, but cannot possibly work during a generational Awakening era. Even a U.S. military strike will not unite the Iranian people behind their leaders, as the students will blame the government for provoking the strike.

Iran is a schizophrenic country, with a bitterly anti-American and anti-Western leadership, but where the younger population is generally pro-American and pro-West, and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. Iran's leaders are aware of this, and their attempts to reverse those attitudes cannot succeed during an Awakening era.

However, even the younger population favors Iran's nuclear program. They know that Saddam used weapons of mass destruction (poison gas) during the Iran/Iraq war, and the Iranians are surrounded by countries (Pakistan and Israel) that already have nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, the Israelis and the Arabs are extremely anxious about the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, and it's possible that a military strike on Iran will occur.

As I've said in the past, it's my expectation that when forced to choose in the Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will be on the side of the West.

Additional links

The internet is buzzing about the "Hindenburg Omen," a set of technical indicators that supposedly indicate an imminent stock market crash. The conditions for the Hindenburg Omen were met last week, but other analysts claim that it's all meaningless. CNBC

Swaziland has the highest HIV/Aids infection rate in the world, and the lowest life expectancy, but experts are puzzled about why Swazis have resisted all attempts to change the behaviors that put them at risk for AIDS. Reuters

On Sunday, Financial Times reported that the Barack Obama had personally warned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the U.S. would refuse some armed sales to Turkey, if it doesn't change its position on Iran and Israel. But Turkey's President Abdullah Gül denies that any such threat had been made. Zaman

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began a visit to Greece on Monday to develop closer Israeli-Greek ties, just as relations between Israel and Turkey have been souring. Greece and Turkey are historic enemies, but both Greece and Israel deny that they're forming an alliance against Turkey. Deutsche Welle

Pakistani flood victims blocked highways on Monday to protest the lack of government help. Public anger has grown after two weeks of floods, and hundreds of villages have been marooned. The situation continues to deteriorate. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Aug-10 News -- Iran announces new uranium enrichment centers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Aug-2010) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-2010 17-Aug-10 News -- Iran announces new uranium enrichment centers

Iran announces ten new uranium enrichment centers

Iran's strategy

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-2010
17-Aug-10 News -- Iran announces new uranium enrichment centers