27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen - 27-Aug-2010 - Generational Dynamics

In a remarkable change in assessment, CIA analysts now see Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as a greater threat to US security than the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that this new assessment has helped prompt senior Obama administration officials to call for an escalation of U.S. military operations in Yemen, the current home of AQAP. There are no plans to scale back operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The main change will be in the use of Predator drone attacks in Yemen. These are unmanned planes carrying missiles, controlled remotely by pilots, sometimes as far away as in Nevada. Pictures from the drones' cameras are transmitted back to the base, and when a target is identified, a pinpoint missile attack can be launched remotely.

According to the article, officials believe that unmanned Predator drone strikes had decimated al-Qaeda in Pakistan over the years, causing Pakistan's al-Qaeda to be relatively less dangerous to American security than AQAP.

Congressional pressure has been increasing for additional American military intervention in Yemen ever since the attempted Christmas day bombing of an airliner over Detroit by the "underwear bomber."

AQAP is thought to have trained the underwear bomber. Furthermore, AQAP is assessed as being more agile and agressive, and capable of training many more suicide bombers, so that sooner or later one of them will succeed in launching a successful terrorist attack on American soil.

In addition, Yemen is just opposite Somalia across the Gulf of Aden, and there the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabab terrorist organization is gaining power in Somalia. An al-Qaeda victory in both countries would affect the shipping lanes in the region.

An article in Germany's left-leaning Die Tageszeitung, translated by Spiegel, recognizes the danger, but warns that the West is "playing the wrong card:"

"Yemen's al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and the increasingly strong and aggressive al-Shabab militia in Somalia are acting to destabilize not only their own countries but the entire region of the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa. If they were to have success in [Yemen's capital] Sana'a or [Somalia's capital] Mogadishu then it would be the greatest triumph of radical Islam since Sept. 11, 2001.

Somalia has long been a failed state and Yemen is not too far from becoming one. In both countries there are areas where the rule of law does not apply, a factor that can be exploited by international terrorists. And they are tolerated by the local population because the West continues to play the wrong card. Constant war is regarded as preferable to seeing fundamentalists take over, so corrupt officials from the central government are supported over local self-determination, and a blind eye is turned to what regional allies like Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia do, without reflecting that this only increases sympathy for the enemy. Stability should really be the highest aim in any security policy, but in Somalia and Yemen, the opposite is achieved."

Yemen officials are saying that the U.S. has exaggerated the size and danger of al-Qaeda in Yemen, according to the Yemen News Service, and that "Yemeni forces, with the support of friends and brothers, are able to bear their full responsibilities in fighting al-Qaeda militants."

Yemen's officials are saying what they have to say, but Yemen's government is unstable for more than one reason. Not only are they fighting al-Qaeda in the south, but they're also fighting a Shia insurgency in the north.

It's believed that Iran is supplying weapons to the rebels in the north, so it's not surprising that Iran is opposed to the U.S. plan to intervene in Yemen. An article in the Iran's news service Press TV quotes Amnesty International claims, denied by the U.S., that there are already drones operating in Yemen, demanding an investigation of "the serious allegations of the use of drones by US forces for targeted killings of individuals in Yemen and clarify the chain of command and rules governing the use of such drones."

The situation in Yemen is becoming increasingly critical, and it's possible that America will soon be at war there, in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Additional links

Japan's severe deflationary spiral continues. the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday that consumer prices fell 1.1% in July -- the 17th consecutive month of deflation. Individual components that fell the most were education, furniture, recreation, clothing and food and medical care. Remember the good old days when Ben Bernanke and other economists used to believe that deflation was impossible with a "fiat currency"? LOL! RTT News

Honey bee colonies around the world have been dying for several years. For a long time, the cause was a mystery, but it's been found that the cause was the tiny Varroa mite. Now, a beekeeper in the UK claims to have bred a strain of bees that "groom" one another, removing the mites.He's been artificially inseminating queen bees in the hope they will establish themselves. Reuters

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani flood refugees are pouring into Karachi, in Sindh province, possibly overwhelming the city's resources. Ethnic tensions are growing, as the Sindh nationalists are orgnizing protests and occupations by hundreds of Sindh protests, provoking confrontations with Pashtuns that have fled Taliban violence in the northwest and tribal areas. A third ethnic group, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, or MQM, comprised of ethnic groups from India that arrived after the 1947 Partition, is joining with the Sindhis in confronting the Pashtuns. WSJ (Access)

Step by step, Islamist tenets and Sharia law are taking hold in Russia's Caucasus provinces of Chechnya and Ingushetia, raising concerns that the Kremlin is losing control of the region. Women's headscarves are turning into a major point of conflict. The Caucasus region has historically been a major crisis war battlefield across the fault line of the Muslim civilization versus the Orthodox Christian civilization, and Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new major war in this region. Reuters

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2010
27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen

U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2010 27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen

U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-2010
27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen