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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2010
2-Sep-10 News -- Mideast peace talks begin in Washington amid deep skepticism

Web Log - September, 2010

2-Sep-10 News -- Mideast peace talks begin in Washington amid deep skepticism

Suicide bombers attacked Shia worshippers in Lahore, Pakistan

Mideast peace talks begin in Washington amid deep skepticism

It's about Mideast peace and a Palestinian state, but this summit is President Obama's show. The President greeted Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas in Washington on Wednesday, in preparation for peace talks to begin on Thursday.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas shake hands in summit meeting with President Obama

Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas shake hands in summit meeting with President Obama

Obama pushed hard to get this meeting going without further delay, because there's a kind of a deadline. Last year, the Israelis agreed to a ten-month moratorium on building new settlements in the West Bank, and that moratorium is due to expire on September 26.

Netanyahu has said that the moratorium will not be extended, and it's believed that his governing coalition would not survive if he tried.

Abbas has said that the talks will end if the moratorium is not extended.

So the first order of business for the peace talks will be to find a compromise on the moratorium issue. One possibility will be to allow settlements only in certain areas that are expected to be part of Israel in some final agreement, but that's all up in the air.

The Hamas terrorist group, which is in control of the Gaza strip, doesn't like the peace talk at all. On Saturday, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said, "Abbas and his negotiating team do not represent Palestine, Jerusalem, the refugees, or al-Aqsa, and we will not recognize any agreement signed by the Zionist enemy. Hamas continues to grow stronger and prepare for the final battle until your banishment from Palestine. Your existence is on its way to disappearing," according to Ynet news.

Hamas would like to throw a monkey wrench into the peace summit, and may have partially succeeded. Hamas has taken responsibility for the the shooting of four Israeli settlers on Tuesday, and has promised more killings, according to Bloomberg. Settler leaders responded by pouring cement for new settlements at several sites, openly violating the moratorium.

(Late news is that there are more shootings on Wednesday evening, and the threat of a campaign of shootings to derail the peace talks.)

How many times have I written about this dance? The first major Generational Dynamics prediction that I made on my web site came when President Bush announced his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" in May, 2003. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?")

That prediction was pretty straightforward, as generational predictions go. Palestinian president Yasser Arafat, whom everyone considered to be a terrorist and a liar, was thought to be the only obstacle to the adoption of Bush's Mideast peace plan. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Arafat was part of the generation that survived the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and people in his generation would be doing everything possible to prevent another war. Hence, my prediction was that the death of Arafat, whenever it may come, would not mean peace, but would be part of a generational change that would lead to a re-fighting of the bloody 1948 war, and that in any event, the Roadmap to Peace would fail.

There was more worldwide euphoria after Yasser Arafat died in November, 2004. There was a lot of silly rhetoric from politicians at that time that now that this "truly evil man" was gone, peace was at hand.

It was interesting to see what happened next. Chaos and suicide attacks began to increase and worsen almost by the day, and there have been three wars since then -- the war between Israelis and Hizbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009. There are rumors and reports that Hamas and Hizbollah are preparing for a new war, with the help of Syria and Iran.

So now we have Netanyahu and Abbas in Washington at a peace summit that's supposed to resolve all the issues and create two side-by-side states, Israel and Palestine.

Here's one thing that nobody ever mentions, but it's crucial: The median age of the entire population of Gaza is 17, according to the CIA Fact Book. That means that Gaza is being largely run by kids with guns and missiles.

It's a major principle of Generational Dynamics that major events in history come from the people, massive numbers of people, entire generations of people. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.

So you have the kids in Gaza, restless and bored just like American kids, wondering what their future is going to be like in a region dominated by the Jews who took their land away from their parents and grandparents. And just like American kids, they have no fear of war. Does anyone really think that these Gaza kids are going to listen to a couple of old farts like Abbas and Netanyahu, no matter what they come up with?

So as the peace talk summit begins on Thursday, nothing has changed since the Generational Dynamics prediction of 2003. The Mideast is headed for a massive new war between Arabs and Jews, re-fighting the war that followed the creation of Israel in 1948. And nothing that President Obama or any politician does is going to stop it.

Additional links

With Pakistan still trying to handle the floods, a series of suicide bombings in Lahore attacked a Shia religious procession, killing 25 people and injuring hundreds. The concern is that further suicide attacks will be directed at foreign aid workers helping with the flood recovery. CS Monitor

Pakistan's farmers are in desperate need of wheat seeds, after the floods devastated much of the country's farmland and seed stock. They need it quickly, or they'll miss the next sowing season. Dawn

Europeans are losing faith in the European Union. Just 42% of Europeans say they trust the European Union, according to a new opinion poll, down six percentage points in just six months. EurActiv

France is facing enormous international criticism for it's new policy of rounding up Roma Gypsies and deporting back to their home countries, usually Bulgaria or Romania. However, many of them are unable to find work in their home countries, and they're planning to return to France as quickly as possible. Spiegel

Why Congressional web sites suck. Fierce Government IT. And check out the worst political web site ever http://www.georgehutchins.com

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Sep-10 News -- Mideast peace talks begin in Washington thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Sep-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2010 2-Sep-10 News -- Mideast peace talks begin in Washington amid deep skepticism

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2010
2-Sep-10 News -- Mideast peace talks begin in Washington amid deep skepticism