	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Sep-2010
13-Sep-10 News -- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens

Web Log - September, 2010

13-Sep-10 News -- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens

Talk of an Arab alliance against Iran

Political split widens between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners

On Thursday, Iranian officials announced that on Saturday they would release Sarah E. Shourd, one of the three Americans who were arrested a year ago and jailed under accusations of spying. Shourd was arrested with her fiancé and a friend, while hiking in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan. They were accused of crossing the border into Iran, which they claim they did unwittingly, if at all, according to the Telegraph. Shourd is known to be in poor health, and may have cancer.

The NY Times reported that Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance invited reporters to witness the release on Saturday morning. The release would be an act of clemency, granted on Eid al-Fitr, a major Muslim holiday and the last day of Ramadan. (There was no indication that the release was related to the commemoration of 9/11.)

The release was favored by Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But on Saturday, Iran's chief prosecutor, controlled by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, announced that the release would be delayed, possibly for months, while court proceedings took place.

Finally, on Sunday, the chief prosecutor announced that Shourd would be freed on the payment of $500,000. Shourd is still being held in Tehran, awaiting further developments.

This situation is part of a larger growing confrontation between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. During the last couple of weeks, an increasingly confrontational rift has been growing between the Majlis (Parliament), controlled by the Supreme Leader, and Ahmadinejad, over several foreign envoy appointments he's made, as well as his declaration to make Saturday a holiday.

According to the Tehran Times, an MP (Member of Parliament) has sent a letter to Ahmadinejad, saying, "The president should not think that the Majlis will deal cautiously with the administration’s unlawful actions forever. Our caution is due to political considerations, but MPs will (eventually) run out of patience." He asked, "Based on what permission did you declare Saturday a holiday? According to the law, the parliament has the right to designate a day as a holiday."

Iran is in a generational Awakening era, as I've described in detail many times, and the way to understand this political infighting is to compare it to the political fights that Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon had during America's last Awakening era, in 1960s and 1970s. America went through years of angry protests by the young Boomer generation, and the era climaxed with the resignation of President Nixon. Iran is just starting to go through years of similar turmoil, with angry protests by the young college generation, in the same generational archetype as America's Boomers in the 60s.

Like any Awakening era, Iran is in a generational struggle between the survivors of the last crisis war -- the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution followed by the Iran/Iraq war -- and the kids who were born after that war.

I wrote just a couple of weeks ago there are signs of a split, including a theological split, between Ahmadinejad and the hardliners led by Khamanei. (See "30-Aug-10 News -- Generation gap splits Iran's government.")

The new events indicate that this split is growing and continuing, and it appears that Ahmadinejad is beginning to side with the kids, rather than the hardliners.

Talk of a Arab alliance against Iran

There has been occasional talk in the Mideast press about Arab countries forming an alliance to counter Iran's increasing threat to the security and stability of the Gulf states. But a new analysis by Memri indicates that this and other options are being actively discussed, at least in Kuwait.

There has been a shift in public opinion in Kuwait regarding Iran, as a result of numerous recent events, assessments and rumors:

the discovery of a money laundering operation in Bahrain connected to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC);
the arrest of 250 operatives in Bahrain suspected of membership in terror cells that would be activated in the event of an attack on Iran,
reports that similar cells exist in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia;
the uncovering of an Iranian espionage network in Kuwait;
reports about Iranian plans to occupy the Gulf states
and to assassinate senior military commanders and media figures in the Middle East, especially in the Gulf and in Lebanon;
the U.S. plan to install missile defense systems in several Gulf countries;
the July 2010 attack on the Japanese supertanker in the Gulf;
the activation of the Bushehr nuclear reactor in southern Iran on August 21, 2010;
assessments that Iran's influence in the region will grow in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq;
Iran's naval maneuvers in the Gulf in April and May 2010
The sense of threat generated by all these factors is compounded by the advances in Iran's nuclear program.

As a result, columnists and public figures in Kuwait are united in their assessment that Iran intends to take over the Gulf states. Various writers have suggested different ways to address the threat, including the following:

Passive cooperation with a Western military strike.
Tougher foreign policy, including a boycott of Iran.
Forming an alliance (or union) with Saudi Arabia.
Strengthening internal security, in cooperation with the other Gulf states.
Strengthening military defense capabilities, in cooperation with the other Gulf states.
Calling on the international community for help.

None of this is surprising, and is consistent with Generational Dynamics trends. As we've said many times, we expect Sunni Muslim states to be aligned with China against the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, and we expect Iran to be aligned with the West.

Additional links

Iran may be creating an alliance of its own. The "Persian Summit" was a recent meeting in Tehran of the leaders of the Persian-speaking countries of Iran, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. Eurasia Daily Monitor

Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, a longtime critic of Israel, now accuses Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of anti-semitism for denying the Holocaust. Castro called for an end to slander of the Jews. Guardian

Tens of thousands of Muslims marched through Indian Kashmir's main city on Saturday, setting fire to government and police buildings in the latest of what are the biggest protests in two years against Indian rule. Reuters

Devastating floods over the past six weeks in Pakistan have affected more than 20 million people and laid waste a fifth of the country's land mass. The fear now is that in the expected anarchy, a fiercely anti-American Islamic revolution could break out, lead by violent Sunni Muslim extremists. Asia Times

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been two countries in one. The eastern half is mostly populated by Russians, and is loyal to Russia. The western half is mostly populated by ethnic Ukrainians, as well as ethnic Russians who were encouraged to migrate there by Moscow after WW II. However, instead of "Russifying" eastern Ukraine, as Moscow expected, the ethnic Russians in the east, especially in the younger generations, are becoming more like the Ukrainians, and are voting for Ukrainian parties. Eurasia Review

Generation-Xers are much more religious than Boomers, according to research by the University of Nebraska. This is considered surprising, because Gen-Xers are supposed to be "a rules-rejecting, authority-questioning group," but what the authors fail to remember is that the Boomers are the "God is Dead" generation, and so becoming religious actually is rejecting rules -- the Boomers' rules. Science Daily

A new study by Harvard Medical School finds that the 2006 Massachusetts Health Reform law has led to improvements in insurance coverage as well as a decline in financial barriers to care, but it has not increased people's access to a personal physician or improved their self-rated health. Furthermore, it has not reduced healthcare inequalities between ethnic or income groups. Science Centric

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Sep-10 News -- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-Sep-2010) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Sep-2010 13-Sep-10 News -- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens

Political split widens between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners

Talk of a Arab alliance against Iran

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Sep-2010
13-Sep-10 News -- Split between Ahmadinejad and Iran's hardliners widens