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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2010
28-Sep-10 News -- China becomes more belligerent over disputed islands

Web Log - September, 2010

28-Sep-10 News -- China becomes more belligerent over disputed islands

Kazakhstan willl ban the export of buckwheat and oilseed

Japan demands compensation as China becomes more belligerent

Japan attempted to turn the tables on China on Monday, by demanding that China pay for repairs to two Coast Guard vessels that were damaged during the confrontation with a Chinese fishing boat on September 8, according to Bloomberg.

The Chinese boat had been fishing in waters surrounding uninhabited islands claimed by both China and Japan. During the confrontation, the Chinese boat collided with the Japanese Coast Guard vessels, causing some damage.

Japan arrested the boat captain, and faced a storm of retaliatory threats from China. China cut off shipments of rare earth metals to Japan, and then arrested four Japanese consultants working in China.

Japan released the boat captain within a few days, in order to improve relations between the two countries, and both Japanese and American officials fully expected the whole conflict to simmer down at that point.

But that hasn't happened. Much to everyone's surprise, Japan's acquiescence to Chinese demands has resulted in even greater belligerence by the Chinese. China treated the returning boat captain as a national hero, and demanded an apology and monetary compensation from Japan.

China used to say that disputes over these islands should be resolved by negotiation, but now the Chinese are saying that the disputed islands belong to China unequivocally, and that no compromise of any kind is possible. China is also increasing its use of its own patrol boats in the disputed waters, according to Yomiuri.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it appears that a significant generational change of some kind has occurred.

I've written several times in the past that China's leaders, including president Hu Jintao and premier Wen Jiaboa, grew up during Mao's Communist Revolution crisis war. Like America's Silent Generation, they grew up in the midst of enormous human suffering, and they experienced a kind of generational child abuse that makes them put compromise and conciliation ahead of everything else when they're adults.

This stunning change from a generally conciliatory foreign policy to a much more nationalistic and less compromising foreign policy indicates to me that Hu and Wen and their entire generation are losing influence rapidly, and that people from younger generations are beginning to make all the important decisions.

Of course we won't know for a while, if ever, what's going on in China's government, and how the decision making process is changing. But analysts who expect this level of Chinese nationalism and belligerence to be a one-time event should prepare to be surprised.

Additional links

Kazakhstan will join Russia and other former Soviet republics in banning the export of buckwheat and oilseed. The Russian export is blamed for this year's surging world food prices. Bloomberg

France remains on high alert, as new terrorist attacks are threatened. Washington Post

Israel's Navy is closely watching a new "freedom flotilla" boat with Jewish activists that left Cyprus on Sunday with the goal of breaking the Gaza blockage, and says it will use force to stop it. Haaretz

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Islamic Affairs is implementing educational programs to Imams and preachers to encourage moderation in sermons. Media Line

Mazlan Othman, a Malaysian astrophysicist, will appointed by the United Nations to head UNOOSA, the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs. In case aliens ever land on earth and say "Take me to your leader," it will be her responsibility to meet and greet them. At first I thought this story was a joke, but apparently it isn't. Australian

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Sep-10 News -- China becomes more belligerent over disputed islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Sep-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2010 28-Sep-10 News -- China becomes more belligerent over disputed islands

Japan demands compensation as China becomes more belligerent

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Sep-2010
28-Sep-10 News -- China becomes more belligerent over disputed islands