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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Oct-2010
16-Oct-10 News -- Demands for reform in China

Web Log - October, 2010

16-Oct-10 News -- Demands for reform in China

France's labor unions sabotage fuel pipeline to Paris

Demands for reform expose political disagreements in China

In an October 3 interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN, China's premier Wen Jiaboa made unusually blunt calls for economic and social reforms in Chinese society.

The interview has had a dramatic effect among China's "netizens," according to the Wall Street Journal (Access). The interview has generated a great deal of excitement, and information about the interview has been popping up everywhere on the Chinese internet, faster than the censors can take the information down.

Wen's statements indicate that the level of bickering and political division is as great in China as it is in America and other countries.

Wen's remarks have now been followed by an open letter signed by 100 Chinese scholars and activists, according to the Washington Post. The letter calls for the release from prison o Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo and all political prisoners, and for China's "peaceful transition" to "a democracy, and a nation of laws."

This is in sharp contrast to official Chinese media, that have been blasting the West for awarding the Nobel Peace prize to an Chinese dissident, rather than someone like Deng Xiaoping, who brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

In fact, China has come close to severing diplomatic relations with Norway. China has called off numerous official visits by Chinese officials to Norway and vice versa, according to Reuters.

So it seems likely that the letter demanding release of Liu from prison must be a great embarassment to top Chinese officials.

People assume that because of China's centralized government, there are no political disputes like the ones in the United States in Europe. As a matter of fact, every government, even dictatorships, have to deal with different constituencies. And from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the political bickering and governing paralysis grows as the country goes deeper into a generational Crisis era. In that sense, China is not that different from the United States. And like the United States, China's constituencies will not be united until some catastrophic event, such as a war, forces the country to unite for its survival.

Paul Krugman wants $8-10 trillion in quantitative easing

Here's the CNBC video where Paul Krugman says that the U.S. needs $8-10 trillion in bond purchases:

Krugman used to be an economist, but in recent years, he's turned into a cartoon left-wing ideologue who plays an economist on tv.

In 2008, I posted the article "One, Two, Three ... Infinity," in which I compared to the ever-increasing government spending plans to a book by George Gamow that I read in school in the 1950s. My use of that particular phrase was to convey the idea that debt was on an exponential growth path that would not be stopped except by a major financial collapse and crisis.

Krugman is illustrating the point. There are hundreds of trillions of dollars in structured securities (collateralized debt obligations, credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, etc.) in portfolios of financial institutions around the world, and we're in a deflationary spiral as they're being deleveraged. As Krugman himself says, his $8-10 trillion in QE has no chance politically of being adopted, but if it were, then the next thing you'd see would be Krugman saying that we need $30-40 trillion.

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Israel's housing agency published plans to build 238 new housing units in East Jerusalem. The Obama administration has been frantically doing everything possible to convince Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to extend the freeze on settlements that expired on September 26, but that seems less likely by the day. The Mideast peace talks are frozen, and probably dead, though nobody yet has filled out the death certificate. If and when that happens, the Palestinians have said that they intend to go to the United Nations and request an international mandate creating a Palestinian state, based on Israel's pre-1967 borders. Guardian

Refinery workers belonging to France's public labor unions have sabotaged a fuel pipeline to Paris, in actions that are becoming increasingly violent. Panic buying of gasoline has begun. The unions are trying to force the government to back down from a reform that would increase the retirement age from 60 to 62. The French Senate will be voting on the reform on Wednesday. VOA

Residents of Hungary who were forced to flee from their homes when toxic red sludge from an alumina plant flooded their villages are starting to return home. The plant reopened late on Friday. Associated Press

If North Korean president Kim Jong-il died now, the chances of a successful transition to the appointed successor, his son Kim Jong-un, are less than 10%, with the odds of a crisis at 60-70%, according to a South Korean journalist. Chosun

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Oct-10 News -- Demands for reform in China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Oct-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Oct-2010 16-Oct-10 News -- Demands for reform in China

Demands for reform expose political disagreements in China

Paul Krugman wants $8-10 trillion in quantitative easing

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Oct-2010
16-Oct-10 News -- Demands for reform in China