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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Oct-2010
21-Oct-10 News -- Chechnya warlord blamed for attack on Parliament

Web Log - October, 2010

21-Oct-10 News -- Chechnya warlord blamed for attack on Parliament

UK adopts a 'slash and burn' austerity budget

Khusein Gakayev is blamed for Tuesday's attack on Chechnya parliament

As I reported yesterday, Russians were shocked by a successful terrorist attack on Chechnya's highly protected Parliament building in Grozny. The attack was perpetrated by the "North Caucasus Emirate" or the "Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus" (IEC), a terrorist jihadist group created and headed by terrorist Doku Umarov.

Chechnya (Discovery Corp)

Chechnya (Discovery Corp)

As we described, the "Emirate" itself has recently been split by ethnic tensions, when several warlords repudiated their pledges of alliegiance to Umarov.

One of those renegade warlords is Khusein Gakayev (or Hussein Gakaev), and Chechen officials have now named Gakayev as the organizer of Tuesday's attack, according to Russia Today.

Gakayev and his family are from the Vedeno province in the east of Chechnya, according to a 2008 biography by Kavkaz. He fought the Russians in the two Chechen wars, where three brothers were killed, and his sister was kidnapped, with whereabouts still unknown.

He was bodyguard to terrorist Shamil Basayev, according to BCM (Russia). Basayev was the mastermind of the horrific 2004 Beslan terrorist attack that killed 340 people, including 156 children. (See "Russian President Putin asks revenge for Beslan.")

Before splitting from Umarov, he was commander of the Eastern Front of the Caucasus Emirate Armed forces. The split occurred because Umarov's objective is an Islamic Emirate that unites all of Russia's Caucasus provinces - Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. Gakayev is less interested in a greater Emirate, and more interested in gaining independence from Russia for Chechnya.

If Gakayev did engineer Tuesday's attack, then it indicates a severe split in the leadership of IEC, and a greatly increased level of ethnic and clan tension throughout the Caucasus. An ethnic war in Chechnya could spiral into a full scale ethnic and religious war in the Caucasus region and beyond.

For centuries, and especially since the fall of Constantinople to the Muslim Ottomans in 1453, Moscow has taken on the role of "protector" of Jerusalem as the center of the Orthodox or "true" Christian Church.

Russia has had three major wars with Western Christians -- the Great Northern War with Sweden in the early 1700s, the war with Napoleon in 1812-14, and the war with the Nazis in World War II. However, although these were generational Crisis war invasions by the Europeans, they were non-crisis wars for the Russians. In all three cases, the Russians won by taking strategic advantage of the extremely harsh Russian winters, often by simply letting the enemy sit and freeze to death.

Russia's crisis wars were a combination of civil wars along ethnic lines and external wars between the Orthodox Christian and Muslim Civilizations.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Caucasus region will once again be the fault line of a major genocidal crisis war between these two great civilizations, along with numerous ethnic wars playing a role.

My expectation is that, in the coming "Clash of Civilizations" world war between China and the United States, America's allies will include Russia, India and almost certainly Iran, while China's allies will include the Sunni Muslim states. It's impossible to predict what event will trigger this world war, but a spiraling war in the Caucasus region is one possibility.

UK adopts a 'slash and burn' austerity budget

On Wednesday, the UK's Conservative finance minister George Osborne announced historic austerity budget cuts. Government spending will be cut by 19% over four years, and almost 500,000 government employees will be laid off according to Reuters. Osborne said that Britain's budget deficit of 11% of gross domestic product (GDP) left him no option to such drastic action if the country was to avoid a Greek-style fiscal meltdown.

This came at a time when France is facing another day of massive strikes, riots and demonstrations over pension reform.

Financial pundits on tv on Wednesday indicated that they did not expect Britons to take the streets in the same way that the French did, but some pundits speculated that there would be massive riots and demnnstrations in America, when the U.S. is finally forced to take similar austerity measures.

Osborne's proposed budget plan is to reduce Britain's deficit, but this assumes that the world economy is going to bounce back into growth in the next couple of years.

Generational Dynamics predicts that no such bounce is going to occur. What we're seeing is a continuing downward trend into the depths of a ne deflationary Great Depression. A typical scenario at such times in history is a continuing global financial collapse, leading so social unrest, and then to war.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Oct-10 News -- Chechnya warlord blamed for attack on Parliament thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Oct-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Oct-2010 21-Oct-10 News -- Chechnya warlord blamed for attack on Parliament

Khusein Gakayev is blamed for Tuesday's attack on Chechnya parliament

UK adopts a 'slash and burn' austerity budget

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Oct-2010
21-Oct-10 News -- Chechnya warlord blamed for attack on Parliament