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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Nov-2010
2-Nov-10 News -- Russia losing control of the Caucasus

Web Log - November, 2010

2-Nov-10 News -- Russia losing control of the Caucasus

Following up: Framingham debate and David Kotok

Russian official admits it's losing control of the Caucasus

Several analysts are commenting on a remarkable speech on October 25 by a high Russian official, Ivan Sydoruk, the deputy Procurator General of the Russian Federation. His speech contradicts the common Russian line, and specific statements by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, that terrorism in Russia's southern provinces, especially Chechnya, in the North Caucasus, is under control.

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

The analyst Paul Goble quotes Sydoruk as saying that, contrary to the claims that militant attacks are dying off, in 2010, "the number of extremist crimes had increased by more than four times [over 2009], and that 70 percent of these 352 acts had taken place in Chechnya."

Sydoruk blames the situation on the disastrous economic situation. As of July 1, there were some 449,000 unemployed in the North Caucasus, some 40% of the population, creating a breeding ground for militants and extremists.

Thus, although Russian forces had killed over 400 militants in the last nine months, and prevented "more than 50 terrorist acts," the militants are quite able to recruit replacements, find money and arms, and enjoy some support in the population. According to Sydoruk, "Give some one of them a 100 dollars and he will do whatever you want."

Putin's hand-picked president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has been blaming Georgia for backing the terrorist attacks in Chechnya, providing weapons and financial support.

However, Sydoruk contradicts this, according to an analysis by Jamestown Foundation.

Sydoruk completely contradicted Kadyrov's accusations against Georgia, stating that most of the weapons in the hands of the militants came from Russian military units.

It's quite unusual for a high Russian official to step out of line like this. His comments are consistent with other, more anecdotal reporting from the Caucasus, and are more credible than the standard Russian line. Still, it won't be surprising if he's digging salt mines in Siberia next year.

As we've been reporting lately, the North Caucasus is becoming increasingly lawless. (See "30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics" and "20-Oct-10 News -- 'North Caucasus Emirate' attacks Chechnya's parliament building.")

Furthermore, this is in the context of the very dramatic reality that the 2014 Russian Olympics will be held in the sea resort of Sochi -- which, by incredible coincidence or design, is the site of a battle that occurred exactly 150 years earlier, in 1864 -- a well-remembered battle where ethnic Russians massacred ethnic Circassians, the same Circassians that now live in the North Caucasus provinces of Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria. Tensions are bound to continue to rise.

Video of Framingham debate

As I wrote in "26-Oct-10 News -- Xenophobia in Framingham, Massachusetts," last week I moderated a debate among three candidates Framingham representative to Beacon Hill.

The video of the debate is at http://blip.tv/file/4299973/

This debate is entirely on local issues, but is of interest to a wider audience for only one reason: The debate was dominated by the immigration issue, because of a large Brazilian population in the town.

As I wrote last week, this town debate is a microcosm of the debates being held around the world on immigration. Although the details may be different, the same debate in occurring in France over the Roma Gypsies, in Belgium over the Muslims, and in Hungary over the Jews.

As I've been writing for years, the level of all forms of xenophobia around the world has been increasing for the first time since the 1930s, and has been increasingly particularly quickly in the last few months. This led to a world war in the 1930s, and it will lead to a world war again today.

More on David Kotok

Several days ago, I posted "24-Oct-10 News -- The mysterious case of David Kotok," concerning an accusation of plagiarism of a letter by Kotok that appeared in a newsletter by John Mauldin that I had quoted the week before in "19-Oct-10 News -- Analyst John Mauldin is turned by the foreclosure issue."

I received an e-mail message from Samuel A. Santiago, Managing Director & VP of Information Technology of Kotok's firm, Cumberland Advisors. The e-mail message had an attachment of a PDF file containing a detailed explanation of what happened, and pointing out that the plagiarism charge was incorrect. Readers may download the PDF file to read the full explanation.

I'm happy to clarify the record on this matter.

Additional links

Ibrahim Hassan Al Asiri (Telegraph)

Ibrahim Hassan Al Asiri (Telegraph)

AQAP's top bomb-making expert, Ibrahim Hassan Al Asiri, is believed to be the person who made the package bombs that were intercepted over the weekend, as well as the bomb used by the "Underwear Bomber" on Christmas day last year. Al Asiri is 28 years old, and is part of a new generation of terrorists who have little patience with Osama bin Laden's grand plans, and want some kills right away. Telegraph

In the wake of the attempted package bombing, Germany has banned all flights from Yemen, including passenger flights, from landing at its airports. Bloomberg

Turkish authorities have still not identified the perpetrators of the suicide bomb attack in Taksim Square in Istanbul on Sunday. PKK Kurd terrorists have denied involvement, but it's still possible that a PKK splinter group is responsible. Al-Qaeda linked terrorists have been eliminated, but a far left organization may still be responsible. Today's Zaman

Thousands of refugees who fled to Quetta in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan Province to escape the floods are now stranded there and unable to get home because they lack the money and have been given no government help. Reuters

Scientists say that robot sex partners are coming soon. Op Ed News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Nov-10 News -- Russia losing control of the Caucasus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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