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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-2010
8-Nov-10 News -- India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat'

Web Log - November, 2010

8-Nov-10 News -- India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat'

China's corn crop fails to keep up with demand

India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat'

In recent months, we've seen China's policies in the South China and the East China seas become increasingly confrontational and belligerent, as they've claimed that hundreds of islands, waters and sea lanes that have historically been part of other countries or public passageways are China's "core interests" and part of mainland China.

This belligerence has caused alarm among China's Asian neighbors, especially Japan and Vietnam, and has provoked a blunt response from the United States that China's refusal to back down could lead to military confrontation, according to Eurasia Review.

Dr. Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao (Xinhua)

Dr. Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao (Xinhua)

We now see the same increasing Chinese belligerence in its relations with India, and this has provoked concerns within India of an impending war.

The most dramatic policy change by China is with respect to Kashmir and Jammu, the disputed region claimed by both Pakistan and India, and a site of the bloody genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

China used to take a neutral stance on whether the various portions of Kashmir and Jammu are part of Pakistan or India, but now China is clearly siding with Pakistan in the dispute, according to India's Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses. China has even been taking actions such as denying visas to Indian citizens of Jammu and Kashmir. This is not a major action, since few such visas are requested, but it's highly symbolic and shows China's intentions.

In recent meetings between Dr. Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao, the two countries' prime ministers, Singh attempted to turn the tables on China by using the "core interests" arguments that China uses in the South China sea. Howeven, Wen was apparently unmoved, as DNA India reports that nothing was resolved.

China is also building up its military in the areas near the India border. In the so-called "Tibet Autonomous Region" of China, where the Tibetans are supposedly self-governing, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is installing an extensive highway network, several airports and railway lines. China is conducting military exercises in the region with the PLA and Air Force, according to an analysis by Bahukutumbi Raman.

Gilgit-Baltistan is a region in the northern part of Kashmir that Pakistan ceded to China in the past. There are 7,000 Chinese troops working in Gilgit-Baltistan to build roads and railways that link China to a huge sea port that China is building in Pakistan on the Arabian Sea, according to the Guardian.

Finally, China is developing much closer ties with Pakistan (sometimes referred to as "China's Israel"), including the supply of missiles and nuclear weapons technology that can be used to build bombs.

Thus, India is being encircled by the "ChiPak threat," according to India Today. An analyst is quoted as saying, "The ChiPak relationship is the first and oldest proliferation relationship, a reward for Pakistan supporting Mao at the UN at a time when the US demanded all nations support Chiang Kai-Shek. What followed was limitless aid, without strings, proffered especially in the military and nuclear arenas."

This has raised concerns in India's Ministry of Defence, outlined in a detailed study prepared by India's Air Force. The plan contemplates a nightmare scenario: a simultaneous attack by China and Pakistan along India's western, northern and northeastern borders, a concerted multi-front air-land battle over 7,000-km that stretches the Indian armed forces thin and potentially threatens to sever Jammu and Kashmir.

According to the report, Pakistan is currently estimated to have between 70-90 nuclear weapons, compared to India's 60-80, and has produced enough fissile material to make another 90 nuclear weapons.

An Indian strategic analyst is quoted as saying, "When somebody arms a hostile neighbour with nuclear weapons and first strike delivery systems like cruise missiles, it is an act of war."

It's worth pausing here to note that there have been lots of "acts of war" this year in Asia, not the least of which was the North Korean sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan. The tension in Asia has grown enormously in 2010, and any miscalculation can lead to an escalating war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the "ChiPak" alliance is part of an overall trend leading to world war.

When I first started writing about the "Clash of Civilizations" world war six or seven years ago, I said that it was "my expectation" that China would be allied with Pakistan and the Sunni Muslims, while America would be allied with India, Russia and Japan.

At this point in time, there's so much accumulated evidence that this "expectation" has crossed the line into a full-fledged Generational Dynamics prediction.

There are fewer and fewer ambiguities left. In 2010, all forms of xenophobia around the world have been growing at the fastest rate since the 1930s. More countries are increasingly being forced to choose sides, or at least to adopt policies that won't be reversible when they are forced to choose sides.

It's still impossible to predict the time frame, or what will trigger a war, but the number of possiblities seems to increase every day.

Additional links

Price of gold, 1851-2010, in constant 2010 dollars (Motley Fool)

Price of gold, 1851-2010, in constant 2010 dollars (Motley Fool)

Motley Fool is warning investors that gold is in a bubble and the price could drop below $500. They reach this conclusion by graphing the price of gold back to 1851, and applying the Law of Mean Reversion. Motley Fool

China's corn crop rose this year, but not enough to keep pace with increased demand. China became a net importer of corn last year. Bloomberg

As we've described many times over the years, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders have been fantasizing about gaining hegemony over all the Muslim states in the region, something that's manifestly impossible, since Sunni Muslim Arabs would never agree to be influenced by Shia Muslim Persians. A recent trip by Ahmadinejad to Lebanon has cheered Lebanon's Shias, but Sunnis are disquieted. Increasingly, Arab Sunnis are turning for guidance to Turkey. This is not surprising, since Turkey and the Ottoman Empire ruled Muslims in the region for centuries. Qantara

Earthquake prediction in China is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated activity, deeply rooted in the country's history. China's 2008 earthquake disaster killed more than 80,000 people and left more than 4 million homeless, but it allowed the Chinese science community to demonstrate its capability to a global audience. However, the most important lesson from the earthquake is that it is presently impractical to rely on prediction to prevent earthquake disasters. Eurasia Review

Separatist Muslims in Kashmir observed Jammu Martyrs Day on Saturday, commemorating the bloody 1947 war that followed Partition. Daily Times (Pakistan)

A recent BBC report accusing Pakistan of running terrorist training camps in Kashmir has been vehemently denied by Pakistan's Foreign Office. Pak Observer

China says that it's "available" to help out with Portugal's debt crisis. Bloomberg

11 Home Remedies for Great Sex. Fox News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Nov-10 News -- India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-2010 8-Nov-10 News -- India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat'

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-2010
8-Nov-10 News -- India worries about war with the 'ChiPak threat'