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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Nov-2010
11-Nov-10 News -- After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest

Web Log - November, 2010

11-Nov-10 News -- After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi may be released after 27 years

After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest

The military junta in Burma (Myanmar) had hoped to regain some international credibility by holding the first supposedly free election in 20 years.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Burma independence war hero Aung San (VOA)

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Burma independence war hero Aung San (VOA)

Burma's election is widely regarded outside of Burma as being a sham election. President Barack Obama said that it was unacceptable to "steal an election." Many of the ballots were pre-marked with votes for the military junta, and polling booths were positioned so that officials could peek at voters' choices, according to Global Post. In some parts of Mandalay, the second largest city, polling places closed early, presumably to avoid risking anti-junta votes.

The election sparked violence between the Burmese army and rebels from the Karen ethnic group, causing thousands of Burmese people to flee across the border to Thailand. However, by Wednesday the fighting had stopped, and Thailand has been forcing refugees to return home, according to Australian Broadcasting.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's not surprising that civic violence has once again fizzled quickly, since Burma is in a generational Unraveling era, and large demonstrations that fizzle quickly are common during these eras as I described when the massive demonstrations occurred in 2007. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter.")

Both of Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91, 1948-58) were bloody ethnic civil wars. Whenever such a war ends, a dynamic always sets in that must be understood to explain what's happening in Burma today. (See "Basics of Generational Dynamics.")

When a violent civil war ends, politics for the next 50 years is dominated by only one issue: Making sure that civic violence doesn't happen again. As soon as the war ends, officials attempt to set up an infrastructure and austere rules that will prevent any further internal violence. The steps that are taken differ in every case. After America's civil war, a Reconstruction period was instituted, and it seems to have been successful, since a second American civil war never occurred.

Burma gained independence in 1948, but didn't find peace until the ethnic civil war ended in 1958. At that time, a civilian government was set up, but within four years the army overthrew the civilian government, and has remained in power ever since. Whatever motives the army leaders had -- a desire for money and power, for example -- in such a situation a big motivation would have been the belief that the civilian government was too weak to prevent a new civil war.

The real problems always begin when the generational Awakening era begins, usually around 15-18 years after the end of the civil war, when the first generation growing up after the war begins to make their voices heard. The "generation gap" between the war heroes and their children always leads to massive political disagreements and low-level violence.

Burma's Awakening era climax occurred on 8/8/88, when hundreds of thousands of opposition students in the "88 generation," joined by monks and civilians, marched against the military government. This climax, which always occurs in every generational cycle, is the point at which a winner is decided -- either the younger generation or the older generation.

The Awakening is usually "won" by the younger generation since, after all, the older generation starts to die off. If a nation is to avoid another civil war, then the Awakening era climax MUST be won by the younger generation. For example, this is what happened in America, when President Richard Nixon was forced to resign in 1974. On the other hand, the older generation "won" in China, in the massive slaughter of the Tienanmen Square massacre in 1989.

In Burma, on 8/8/88, soldiers opened fire on the opposition demonstrators with machine guns, resulting in thousands of casualties. An opposition leader was Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of revered war hero Aung San. Suu Kyi and many of her supporters were arrested in 1989, but that didn't prevent her party from winning resoundingly in the 1990 elections. However, the army didn't permit the winning party to take office. Suu Kyi has remained under house arrest almost continually since then, with the army junta expressing fear that her release might mean spiraling violence.

Burma burst into worldwide news in 2007 with huge demonstrations and protests, led by Buddhist monks, typical of generational Unraveling eras. (For example, think of the "Million Man March" in 1990s America, which flamed brightly for a moment, and then extinguished.)

The irony of Burma's 2007 demonstration is that a new civil war was impossible in that generational era, and the demonstrations had to fizzle quickly, no matter that the ruling junta did. But, knowing nothing about generational theory, they went ahead with the worst strategy possible: Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums, and thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, have been rounded up and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. All of this was unnecessary.

When the older generation of war survivors "wins" the Awakening era through violence, they begin to face a severe problem when the Unraveling era approaches its end, as is happening now in Burma.

Burma's leaders are now in their 70s, and the country is facing a succession crisis. The leaders distrust pretty much everyone in the the younger generations, and they're still fearful that any mistake can spiral into another bloody civil war. So they're facing some desperate choices.

Last Sunday, Burma had its first election in 20 years. Although most outsiders consider it to be a sham election, many Burmese citizens were quite excited about it, and considered it to be a first step on the path to a better life. VOA quotes a freelance reporter from Rangoon as saying, "It's a huge change. And the fact is there is an election that is being approved by the regime. There is open political activity going on. People are campaigning in the streets. People are talking about problems that they want fixed and that they want their candidates to be addressing. People are talking about what they don't like about the current regime. People used to only talk about that in confidence, in strict confidence, if they knew that you weren't somehow going to use that information to get at them."

Unfortunately, the euphoria will not last long, and already the junta is being pressured to prove that things are changing.

Under massive international pressure, the junta is considering freeing Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. On October 27, AFP reported that junta leaders were planning to release Suu Kyi after the election, and now VOA reports that preparations for her release were being made.

However, the situation is unclear because the release will be accompanied by limits on what Suu Kyi is allowed to do and say, and Suu Kyi has said that if she is released, she will say and do what she pleases, irrespective of any rules.

It's a very strange situation, isn't it. Aung San Suu Kyi is just one woman facing down a powerful military junta that fears what will happen if she's allowed to walk the streets instead of staying locked up in her home. But this is how irrational governments become.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a new civil war is still impossible in Burma at this time, in a generational Unraveling era, and will be impossible for several more years. The release of of Suu Kyi may well cause some protests and demonstrations, and not releasing her may cause some protests and demonstrations, but in either case the demonstrations will fizzle quickly. Whether she's released or not will make no predictable difference to the future of Burma. It's too bad that the junta doesn't understand that.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Nov-10 News -- After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Nov-2010 11-Nov-10 News -- After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest

After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Nov-2010
11-Nov-10 News -- After sham election, Burma's junta scrambles to prevent unrest