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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Nov-2010
14-Nov-10 News -- EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland

Web Log - November, 2010

14-Nov-10 News -- EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland

Mideast negotiators are thinking about a new peace proposal

EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland

European Union ministers are spending the weekend deliberating whether to promise Ireland a European bailout, according to Financial Times (Access).

As we've been reporting, investors seem to be panic-selling Ireland's bonds, causing an increase in yields (interest rates) on ten-year bonds to exceed 9% on Thursday. By comparison, yields on German 10-year bonds are below 3%. Furthermore, the Europeans are experiencing "debt contagion," meaning that bond yields for Spain and Portugal are also rising.

The ministers hope that if they issue the right kind of magic statement, then the panic selling will stop, and yields will start falling again.

This is the same dance that we went through with Greece last spring. The EU would issue one silly statement after another expressing confidence, and every once in a while announces a non-bailout bailout. This means that they said that they'll come to Greece's aid as soon as it's necessary, and that all investors should be supremely confident of that.

Now the same thing is happening with Ireland. In a cute little twist, Ireland's Department of Finance is vehemently denying that they even WANT a bailout, saying that they have plenty of money to last at least through mid-2011. They're blaming the whole crisis on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to the Irish Times, for making some remarks last week implying that Germany REALLY doesn't want to have to bail out another country.

So, expect some meaningless announcement to be made by the EU ministers before the markets open on Monday, and expect it to do little to calm the panic for more than a few days.

Mideast negotiators are thinking about a new peace proposal

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been having discussions with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and has come up with a proposal that also has some cute twists.

The US had repeatedly asked the Israelis to extend the moratorium on building new settlements. The moratorium expired on September 26, and the U.S. wanted it extended for an additional 90 days, to give the so-called peace process a chance to work. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had said that no further peace talks would occur until the settlement freeze is extended.

So Netanyahu has come up with a counter-proposal, according to the Jerusalem Post. Netanyahu will agree to the additional 90 day settlement freeze. In return, the US will supply Israel with 20 additional advanced fighter plans worth $3 billion. Furthermore, the US will agree to veto any proposals in the United Nations for a mandated Palestinian state.

As I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews will be re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and creation of the state of Israel. Thus, it's hard to see how any peace talks of any kind could possibly succeed.

Additional links

After being in a coma for five years, Israel's former prime minister Ariel Sharon has been taken home to his desert ranch. Reuters

Relations between America and New Zealand have been strained since the 1980s, thanks to disagreements over deployment of nuclear weapons. But now the two countries have signed a new agreement that brings New Zealand back into the U.S. fold. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)

China has a shortage of young women, thanks to the one-child policy, and a lack of affordable real estate, thanks to the real estate bubble. Put those factors together and a girl won't give you the time of day unless you're rich. NY Times

The war in Russia's southern province of Dagestan, in the North Caucasus, is getting worse, forcing Moscow to increase the size of its security forces, apparently with plans to launch a new offensive. As a sign of how bad things are, even the children of Russia's militia officers are joining anti-Russian the militant terrorists. Paul Goble

Top ten apps for your iPhone. NY Times

Chocolate contains enzymes that protect against heart disease. Eurasia Review

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Nov-10 News -- EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Nov-2010 14-Nov-10 News -- EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland

EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland

Mideast negotiators are thinking about a new peace proposal

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Nov-2010
14-Nov-10 News -- EU Ministers are thinking about a bailout of Ireland