	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Nov-2010
22-Nov-10 News -- Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis

Web Log - November, 2010

22-Nov-10 News -- Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis

Ireland requests $130 billion bailout from EU

Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis

There are many factors contributing to the worldwide surge in food prices to crisis levels that I reported on yesterday.

The Green Revolution led to huge increases in food production in the 1960s and 1970s, but for some reason, many people believe that the Green Revolution is some magic potion that will last forever. In many ways it was a one shot deal -- improve crop yields by using a lot more water, fertilizer and insecticides. Since then, water has gotten scarcer, and fertilizer and insecticides have been overused.

Here's a graph of world wheat production since 1961 -- total and per capita from FAOStat:

World supply of wheat, total and per capita, 1961-2007

World supply of wheat, total and per capita, 1961-2007

As you can see, total wheat production (the thick red line) has been growing continually since 1961, but you can also see that the rate of growth began to level off around 1990. If you look at the blue line, you can see that the wheat total per capita today is about 20% higher than it was in 1961, but that it's been in a declining trend. That's a very good reason why food prices have been increasing sharply in the last decade.

Many people are aware of declining birth rates in America and Europe, and believe that world population is either leveling off or declining. Actually, population growth has slowed in Western countries, but has been very high in Sunni Muslim countries:

    ------------------------------------------------
                Population Growth Rate
    ------------------------------------------------
    Western countries      Other non-Muslim countries
    -----------------------  -----------------------
    United States     0.97%  Russia           -0.47%
    United Kingdom    0.28%  Vietnam           1.10%
    France            0.53%  China             0.49%
    Germany          -0.06%  Thailand          0.60%
    Israel            1.63%  India             1.38%
    Spain             0.05%  Mongolia          1.50%
    South Africa     -0.05%  Korea, North      0.39%
    Japan            -0.24%  Korea, South      0.26%
                             Iran(Shia Muslim) 0.94%
    ------------------------------------------------
       Sunni Muslim (especially Arab) countries
    -----------------------  -----------------------
    Indonesia         1.10%  Egypt             2.00%
    Uzbekistan        0.94%  West Bank         2.13%
    Turkmenistan      1.14%  Gaza Strip        3.29%
    Syria             1.95%  Pakistan          1.51%
    Saudi Arabia      1.75%  Kuwait            3.50%
    Iraq              2.45%  United Arab Emir  3.56%
    Libya             2.12%  Yemen             2.71%
    ------------------------------------------------

Source: CIA Fact Book

Over the years, I've asked several knowledgeable Muslim experts for an explanation of the high birth rate in Sunni Muslim countries, which is apparently little known, even among Muslims, but have received none.

This is a remarkable phenomenon. Most of the Middle East was in a generational Awakening era in the 1940s, one generation past the cataclysmic collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The most likely explanation for the birth rate is that it became "common wisdom" among Sunni Muslims at that time to develop a higher birth rate, as the way of rebuilding the Muslim empire that had been so powerful for six centuries. This would be similar to the "common wisdom" decision made by people during the West's generational Awakening era (in the 1960s-70s) that a lower birth rate was desirable to save the planet.

At any rate, the imbalances in population growth in Sunni Muslim countries will have the effect of food shortages because of distribution issues. Even if there's enough food in the world to feed everyone, it's meaningless unless the food can be distributed to everyone, and that's becoming more and more difficult.

On this web site I write about many sensitive subjects -- ethnicity, religion, war, terrorism, and so forth. But over the years, my articles on the Malthus effect and the food crisis have generated more hysterical responses than the others. It's very strange, but here's what I think: One can point to religions and ideologies that promote war, ethnic cleansing, terrorism, etc., but I'm not aware of any religion or ideology that promotes acceptance of the Malthus effect.

In fact, the Malthus effect is contrary to the tenets of every religion and ideology, since acceptance of the Malthus effect would make the religion or ideology valueless. In fact, maybe that's why there are so many different religions and ideologies. Each one has a different solution for explaining and defeating the Malthus effect, and each one fails, because there is no way to defeat the simple fact that, in the long run, the population grows faster than the food supply, and that can only lead to wars of extermination. That's the conclusion of Generational Dynamics, which is analytical, and free of any ideology.

Additional links

The stunning announcement that North Korea is making rapid advances in enriching uranium, presumably for nuclear weapons, is beginning to generate reactions. Admiral Mike Mullen said that China, North Korea's closest ally, would have to influence the situation. Reuters

Two weeks ago, Ireland was saying that there were no talks going on with the EU to bail out Ireland. One week ago, Ireland said there were talks, but no bail out was needed or desired. On Sunday, Ireland requested something like $130 billion in aid from the European Union. Ireland will draw on the trillion dollar fund set up by the EU and IMF in May as part of the Greek bailout. Bloomberg

The US-backed plan for a new 90-day moratorium on settlement construction is in limbo. Apparently the current plan being discussed is that the U.S. will sell the Israelis a squadron of F-35 stealth jet fighters in return for agreeing to a 90-day moratorium on new settlements in the West Bank. However, the Obama administration has not yet put this agreement into writing. Haaretz

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Nov-10 News -- Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Nov-2010 22-Nov-10 News -- Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis

Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Nov-2010
22-Nov-10 News -- Sunni Muslim population growth exacerbates food crisis