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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Nov-2010
26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack

Web Log - November, 2010

26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack

Yields on bonds issued by Spain and Portugal still at crisis levels

South Korea's defense minister resigns over North Korean attack

South Korea's government is in chaos as the dimensions of Tuesday's surprise North Korean artillery attack on civilians on Yeonpyeong island become clear.

It's become clear that the North Korean attack was premeditated, and planned well in advance, according to Chosun. Furthermore, analysis of the debris from the attack reveals that the North Koreans fired dozens of "fuel-air shells" at the island. These shells generate high heat and high voltage, for maximum killing power of civilians,

The South Koreans have no idea how to respond. They seem to understand what I've said repeatedly -- that the North Koreans, facing national starvation, WANT a war. So if the South Koreans respond militarily, then the North will get its war. If they fail to respond, as they did when the warship Cheonan was sunk last spring, then they look like impotent fools.

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young was sacked on Thursday, under pressure because the military had been surprised twice, by the Cheonan incident and the current incident. According to Chosun, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak was furious about a remark that the defense minister made on Wednesday, instructing the military to avoid escalation.

North Korea is claiming that the South fired artillery first, according to CNN. The North's state-run broadcaster KCTV reported a statement:

"If the U.S. truly wishes to ease the tension in the Chosun [Korean] peninsula, rather than protecting the puppet South, they should control the South, so the South will not hang on to maintaining the NLL [Northern Limit Line] by invading territorial waters and firing artilleries. This incident shows that the acutal offender of the armistice is the puppet South and it is the U.S. which created tension in the Chosun west sea."

The statement also threatens additional military attacks if the South continues "reckless military provocation."

This may be referring to announced joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises planned for next week in the Yellow Sea. The Yellow Sea is called the West Sea by the Koreans, and it's the body of water separating Korea from China.

Similar military exercises had been planned in the Yellow Sea in the past, but they were relocated out of the Yellow Sea after objections were voiced by the Chinese. This time, however, the North Korean actions have been so egregious that it seems unlikely that the U.S. and South Korea will back down again.

This all comes at a time when the North Koreans have just made public a brand new ultra-modern uranium enrichment facility, capable of producing fuel for nuclear weapons. The nuclear capability is a powerful negotiating tool, and one they're not going to give up, according to an analysis by VOA.

After the Cheonan incident last spring, I said that a war could begin at any time, simply through miscalculation on either side. That's even more true today.

Additional links

Yields (interest rates) on bonds issued by Spain and Portugal continued at high crisis levels on Thursday, indicating that the announced bailout of Ireland is not having anything like the effects on the markets that the bailout of Greece had in May. Associated Press

European officials are proposing to double the size of the 440 billion euro bailout fund created last May after Greece was bailed out, so that money will be available to bail out additional countries. But Germany is rejecting the idea. As the largest economy in Europe, Germany would have to provide a large portion of the fund. WSJ (Access)

Israel's former prime minister Ehud Olmert is splitting with this successor, Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that Israel should agree to extend the moratorium on settlements in the West Bank. Associated Press

50 things every guy should know how to do. Guyism

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Nov-2010 26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack

South Korea's defense minister resigns over North Korean attack

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Nov-2010
26-Nov-10 News -- South Korea in chaos over North's attack