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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Dec-2010
3-Dec-10 News -- Iran/Arab relations roiled by Wikileaks memos

Web Log - December, 2010

3-Dec-10 News -- Iran/Arab relations roiled by Wikileaks memos

Americans are oblivious to foreign policy issues

Wikileaks a story of frustrated nihilism

The Wikileaks story is very strange on many levels.

The founder, Julian Assange, appears to believe that he's somehow going to change history and change the world, by exposing tens of thousands of previously secret documents. Based on the interviews I've seen, he almost seems to have a kind of god complex.

Born in Australia in 1971, Assange is a Generation-Xer who seems to embrace the full nihilism of his generation.

In this, he's very much like President Barack Obama, as we've written in the past. President Obama was evidently convinced that he would take office on January 20, 2009, and change the world by January 21. He would accomplish this because he was "guided by facts," unlike President Bush, who was "guided by ideology and ignored facts." Instead, he's brought about a health care plan that's economy insanity, and he's made numerous blunders in international politics.

Assange exhibits the same kind of nihilism and destructiveness. He's willing to destroy international relationships by exposing secrets, even though doing so may get someone killed or might trigger a war. But his view is that he knows better than anyone else in the world, and that take advantage of this opportunity that's been given him in any way he pleases.

He's almost certain to be frustrated. He's already one of the most hated people in the world, and has to speak from secret locations because he's being sought by the police.

But more than that, the release of these documents is not going to change history in any way that he intends.

As I've said hundreds of times on this web site, the great events of history can be neither caused nor prevented by politicians. They're like tsunamis that have been launched decades before. Nothing can stop them, so all you can do is run for higher ground and hope for the best.

Just as no politician's act can have a predictable effect, the Wikileaks release will have no predictable effect. Any effect will be "chaotic," in the same way that the flapping of a butterfly's wing in China may or may not cause a hurricane in North America.

Let's take an example. One of the first things that popped into my mind when I first heard the Wikileaks story is this: Suppose that some previously secret document reveals that the Taiwan government has a secret ongoing program that appears to be leading to Taiwanese independence in a year or two. Suddenly, the paranoid and increasingly nationalistic Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing may see this document and decide they have to take immediate military action against Taiwan. This would lead to war with the United States, as well.

Now, in that hypothetical situation, depending on how it all played out, it's possible that the media would end up actually blaming Wikileaks for causing the war. However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a war with China over Taiwan is going to occur anyway, so the Wikileaks release could not possibly have CAUSED the war. All that can be claimed is that it TRIGGERED the war that would occur anyway.

That's the fascinating aspect about the Wikileaks release for generational theory. How will the document release slow down or speed up events that are going to occur anyway? How will the release change scenarios and timings? How will the release change history's interpretation of today's events?

Iran/Arab relations roiled by Wikileaks memos

Long-time readers are aware that we're headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war, and I've said many times that this war will pit America, Japan, India and Russia against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries.

Iran has always been a fascinating part of this lineup, because everyone seems to believe that Iran will end up being our enemy, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the same category as Hitler.

But as I've been pointing out for years, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, with young people who are generally pro-American and pro-Western, and who generally have no particular desire to push Israel into the sea. This is a fairly typical "generation gap" that occurs during generational Awakening eras. Furthermore, the Shia Muslim Persians in Iran have historically been bitter, violent enemies of the Sunni Mulsim ArabsMy expectation is that, when forced to make a choice in the Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will choose to ally with the America and Israel.

What's been fascinating about the Wikileaks release is how the documents release an enormous amount of contempt that Arab leaders have for Iran. According to an analysis of the documents by Spiegel, Arab leaders are in favor of Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, and that "no one hates the mullah-controlled country as much as the Arab leaders."

None of this is particularly surprising to anyone. I've reported things of this sort in the past, but they've always been at the level of rumors. The Wikileaks documents show that the rumors are true.

Another analysis, appearing in the Palestinian Ma'an news service, says that Jordan's leaders are opposed to any breakthrough in diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran. Any such dialog could spark a rift between between Arab states, according to Stephen Beecroft, the U.S. ambassador to Jordan:

"[S]uch engagement would reward regional hardliners while undermining Arab moderates, without convincing Iran to cease its support for terrorism, end its nuclear program or drop its hegemonic aspirations.
The metaphor most commonly deployed by Jordanian officials when discussing Iran is of an octopus whose tentacles reach out insidiously to manipulate, foment, and undermine the best laid plans of the West and regional moderates.
Iran's tentacles include its allies Qatar and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, an Iraqi government sometimes seen as supplicant to Tehran, and Shia communities throughout the region."

The one part of this analysis with which I would take exception is identifying Hamas as an ally of Iran. Hamas is a Sunni Islamist terrorist organization, allied with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas has been receiving funding and weapons from Iran, but I doubt that Hamas leaders feel anything but contempt for Iran.

But apart from that, we can see the outlines of a possible scenario that will lead to the war that must occur. In this scenario, the Awakening era protests in Iran bring the younger generation into power, leading to an alliance with the West. This would undermine Arab moderates, who would lose politically to the Arab Sunni Islamist extremists. This would set the stage for a Sunni/Shia war.

This is just one of many possible scenarios, of course, but it shows how the Wikileaks release can influence events in the Mideast and around the world.

Buy the dip

A web site reader has called my attention to the following very astute video, well worth 4 minutes of your time (contains explicit language):

Additional links

Americans are almost completely oblivious and unconcerned about any foreign policy issues. This corresponds to the general observation that many young people can't find China on a map. Pew Research

The 86-year-old King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is recuperating from back surgery in a New York Hospital, and has started physical therapy. He's been a moderate leader and a staunch ally of the west, and there's no clear successor when he dies. Business Week

Egypt says that neither Fatah nor Hamas really want a Mideast peace agreement, according to Wikileaks documents. Ma'an

Since Korea’s deadly attack on Yeonpyeong Island, killing several South Koreans, China has been under pressure to rein in the North Koreans, and prevent further provocations. China has proposed a resumption of the old 6-way talks, but those have been rejected by the the U.S. and South Korea, since it would appear to be rewarding North Korea for their attack. The South Koreans are becoming increasingly frustrated with the Chinese, who seem more interested in diverting attention away from the North Korean actions. The South Koreans are particularly angry at the Chinese for apparently sabotaging a United Nations investigation of the attack. JoongAng

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Dec-10 News -- Iran/Arab relations roiled by Wikileaks memos thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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