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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Dec-2010
5-Dec-10 News -- Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority

Web Log - December, 2010

5-Dec-10 News -- Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority

Tajikistan cracks down on Muslim political parties

Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority

As we've reported a number of times in the last few months, 75 year old Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas frequently expresses the desire to resign and retire. However, the consequences of his retirement would be dramatic, as it would mean the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority. (See "11-Oct-10 News -- Resignation of Abbas would trigger big changes in Mideast.")

Now Abbas has renewed his threat to dissolve the Palestinian Authority, according to VOA.

The Palestinian Authority is responsible for governing and policing the West Bank. Without the PA, the West Bank would have to be policed by either the Israelis or by a United Nations peacekeeping force. In either case, the chances of local violence would be extremely high.

In a television interview on Friday, Abbas said that he could not continue as president of an authority that does not exist, explaining that the authority does not exist because of the Israeli occupiers.

It's hard to know how seriously to take Abbas' threat, since he repeats it so often. He's under enormous pressure from the United States and probably also by the Arab League to remain where he is, rather than creating a vacuum that could be filled by a new war.

Still, threatening to resign is the only real leverage he has to use against the Israelis.

Abbas's statement came a day after Israel decided to push forward with plans for 625 new homes in east Jerusalem, according to the Jerusalem Post. Ever since the 10-month moratorium on building new West Bank settlements expired on September 26,

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, nothing has changed in the Mideast since I made my first major prediction on this subject in 2003. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?") There is no chance of a lasting peace deal because Arabs and Jews will be re-fighting the genocidal war that they fought in 1948, after the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. I assume that all the politicians involved already understand this, but that they're all just saying things to avoid being blamed for what happens.

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As we've reported recently, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) has been reviving as the most virulent Islamist terrorist group in the world, second only to al-Qaeda, and the IMU has been specifically targeting Tajikistan, a nearly failed state, with extreme poverty, a breeding ground for Islamist terrorist sentiments. Now the government of Tajikistan is cracking down, and trying to disband the Islamic Party of Rebirth in Tajikistan, a political opposition party supposedly violating the country's religious laws. However, this crackdown may encourage Islamist extremism in Tajikistan, and will also encourage terrorists to migrate northward into Russia. Eurasia Review

After last week's WikiLeaks releases of previously secret documents made clear the contempt that Arab leaders have for Iran, and the fear they have for Iran's nuclear weapons program, Iran has been struggling to reassure the Arab states that they have nothing to fear. That's what Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a Gulf security conference on Saturday -- that a more powerful Iran is nothing to fear. He said Iran's power in the region is their power, too. I would be very surprised if any Arab leaders bought that line. VOA

Someone is covertly attacking Iran's nuclear program. There's the Stuxnet virus that has shut down uranium enrichment, and there are the terrorist murders of two top nuclear scientists in Tehran. Nobody is claiming credit for these attacks, but it's increasingly suspected that Israel's Mossad is behind them. Guardian

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Dec-10 News -- Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Dec-2010 5-Dec-10 News -- Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority

Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Dec-2010
5-Dec-10 News -- Abbas renews threat to dissolve Palestinian Authority