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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Dec-2010
15-Dec-10 News -- Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China

Web Log - December, 2010

15-Dec-10 News -- Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China

Moscow is braced for new ultra-nationalist race riots

Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China

A clear-cut division, an ideological axis, is forming among the the countries of northeast Asia, because North Korea is complicating relations between the U.S. and China, according to an editorial in South Korea's JoongAng Daily.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are on one side, while China backing North Korea are on the other.

A lynchpin of the new arrangement is the sudden decision by Japan to substantially strengthen its armed forces. That decision was spurred by a several events in the past year -- the North Korean attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan last spring, the North Korean artillery shelling of the South Korean Yeonpyeong Island, and China's overreaction to Japan's arresting of a Chinese fishing boat captain in the summer. In addition, China became extremely aggressive in 2010, claiming sovereignty over a huge swaths of international waters in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Japan's era of postwar pacifism is coming to an end, according to an analysis in the Guardian. In the next few days, Japan will announce a new National Defense Program involving sophisticated new weaponry, mobile rapid-response units and closer security alliances with friendly countries.

It will include a "dynamic defence capability" specifically tasked with deterring Chinese incursions around Japan's disputed southern islands. Defensive alliances will be with the US, Australia, India and even South Korea, stressing military integration and interoperability.

These moves are engendering a great deal of anxiety in the South Koreans. Japan colonized Korea for the first half of the last century, and Japan's military used Korean "comfort women" during World War II. After the war, Japan became a purely defensive country, depending on America's military umbrella for its protection.

But now, as the survivors of WW II have disappeared and memories are fading, the U.S. is encouraging Japan to take more responsibility for its own defense, and Japan is becoming more militaristic again.

Although Japan and South Korea are closely aligned against the dual threats posed by China and North Korea, Japan's colonization of Korea still stirs passion, according to an analysis in the LA Times. One South Korean military analyst is quoted as saying, "Many Koreans still recall the brutality of Japanese colonization, so it's still not possible to talk of better military ties with Tokyo. We will not accept any military involvement with Japan, no matter what the outside threat."

And yet, military involvement between Japan and South Korea is one of the new proposals. In particular, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan raised hackles when he said, "We need to carefully proceed in consultations with South Korea about whether they would let in aircraft from Japan's Self-Defense Forces." The idea of Japanese aircraft over South Korean airspace is anathema to the South Koreans.

While Japan's government appears to be increasingly assertive in dealing with external threats, South Korea's government gives the appearance of being increasingly chaotic.

Just at the time that South Korea needs a coherent military strategy to deal with the threat from the North, the Army Chief of Staff was forced to resign on Tuesday, because of charges of corruption in a real estate deal, according to Arirang.

The South Koreans simply have not come to terms with the two North Korean military attacks this year. The look weak because they didn't respond, but if they respond they'll start a major war. Amid the chaos and anxiety in South Korea is the understanding that if North Korea stages another military attack, then they may have no choice but full-scale war.

Additional links

Moscow is braced for new ultra-nationalist race riots on Wednesday. RFERL

A poll shows that 69% of Palestinians support signing a peace treaty with Israel, and that Hamas is losing support in favor of Fatah. Palestine News Network

Revelations by Wikileaks show that Middle Eastern states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, do not crack down on terrorist activities in their own countries, for fear that it would lead to reprisal attacks and greater domestic instability, and that they have financial links that fund terrorist activities in India. This supports the expectation, that I've described in the past, that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China will be allied with Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim states, while America will be allied with Japan, South Korea, India and Iran. Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies (IPCS)

The Stuxnet computer worm is still crippling Iran's nuclear program. It appears increasingly likely that Iran was the target of the virus, and it's apparently been very successful. Stuxnet is so out of control that it may take another year for the Iranians to eliminate it. Fox News

China is taking advantage of Europe's debt problems to greatly expand its influence on Europe, with large-scale investments and purchases of government bonds issued by highly-indebted states. Spiegel

The Obama administration has concluded that North Korea's nuclear technology is significantly more advanced than Iran's. NY Times

Germany and France appear to be backing down from their previous opposition to a Europe-wide "fiscal union." The proposal will be debated at an EU summity on Thursday and Friday. EurActive

In Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, just across the border from El Paso, Texas, the death toll from drug-related violence for 2010 has just surpassed 3000. Associated Press

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Dec-10 News -- Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Dec-2010 15-Dec-10 News -- Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Dec-2010
15-Dec-10 News -- Ideological axis: S. Korea + Japan vs N. Korea + China