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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-2010
16-Dec-10 News -- Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence

Web Log - December, 2010

16-Dec-10 News -- Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence

Violent unions shut down Greece

Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence

Moscow police detained more than 1,000 people in Moscow and other Russian cities, after internet postings threatened new ethnic violence on Wednesday evening. Most of the detainees were ethnic Russian football (soccer) fans, although a few migrants from the Caucasus region were also detained, according to the Associated Press. The Russian detainees were carrying guns, knives and metal bars, and were shouting racist slogans and raising their hands in Nazi salutes.

The move comes admidst a sharp increase in xenophobia between mostly Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and mostly Muslim ethnic groups from the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces). These two groups have fought regular generational crisis wars over the centuries, and so this rise of xenophobia at this time is not a surprise.

Tension is very high in Moscow after the worst ethnic violence in years occurred last Saturday.

Early last week, Russian football (soccer) fan Yegor Svirido was shot dead in a fight between football fans and migrants. A 26 year old man, Aslan Cherkessov, 26, from the North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, was accused of the murder and arrested. A violent race riot broke out on Saturday during a memorial rally in Moscow for Svirido, involving 5000-7000 ethnic Russians. People with a "non-Slavic appearance," especially dark-skinner migrants, were targets of attack.

Saturday's riot occurred around the Kievsky train station, a region popular with street merchants from the Caucasus. Every day since Saturday, Moscow police have been forced to shut down a portion of central Moscow around the train station, for fear of a revival of the violence. Wednesday evening's activities were the most substantial, involving 3,000 policemen and 1,000 arrests.

At the same time, other regions have been affected as well. Riot police arrested about 100 people each in St. Petersburg and in Samara, Volga region, according to Moscow News.

The ethnic Russian uprising has very serious consequences for Russia, according to an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation. Any hope of integrating the Caucasus population more closely into the Russian population is now completely out of the question. The popularity of the anti-migrant xenophobia is so great that the Russian government will be forced to adopt some of the ethnic Russian nationalist agenda, and that will anger the North Caucasians.

Conspiracy theories are mushrooming as well. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin became extremely popular because of his firm handling of the war in the Caucasus province of Chechnya a decade ago. One theory says that Putin is provoking the xenophobic crisis because he will benefit from it politically, making it easier to replace Dmitry Medvedev as president in 2012.

However, it's not possible that Putin or any politician caused this. This is caused by deep hatred coming from young generations of kids with no sense of history, and no sense of the likely consequences.

However, the violence wasn't spontaneous. It was incited by racist postings by bloggers and commenters, mainly on the largest football fan sites. According to an analysis by Global Voices, the main beneficiary was fanat1k.ru, a "fanatic" web site that drew some 1500 comments, most plainly racist, and with neo-Nazi connections. When one user suggested moderation, he was called Russophobic or stupid.

Administrators of popular social network sites in Russia are being asked by law enforcement officials to deal with the surge in violence by remove content that incites inter-ethnic strife and to close accounts of offenders, according to Ria Novosti (Translation).

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, all forms of xenophobia are increasing around the world today, for the first time since the 1930s. Non-Muslim xenophobia towards Muslims has advanced quite far in Russia, but it's also increasing in America (see "American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right"), in Europe, and even in Israel (see Hatred in Israel). As in Russia, some of this anti-Muslim xenophobia has neo-Nazi links.

In other arenas, we see xenophobia increasing between Japan and China, North and South Korea, and Pakistan and India. These attitudes will only deepen as the world financial crisis continues to deepen.

As the world approaches a "Clash of Civilizations" world war, it's becoming clearer how the countries of the world will line up: China, North Korea, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be allied against the U.S., Japan, India, Russia, Israel and Iran.

This war will be a crisis deeper than the world has ever seen. The founding fathers of generational theory, William Strauss and Neil Howe, described how such a crisis climaxes, in their book, The Fourth Turning:

"The Crisis climax is human history's equivalent to nature's raging typhoon, the kind that sucks all surrounding matter into a single swirl of ferocious energy. Anything not lashed down goes flying; anything standing in the way gets flattened. Normally occurring late in the [Crisis era], the climax gathers energy from an accumulation of unmet needs, unpaid bills, and unresolved problems. It then spends that energy on an upheaval whose direction and dimension were beyond comprehension during the prior Unraveling era. The climax shakes a society to its roots, transforms its institutions, redirects its purposes, and marks its people (and its generations) for life. The climax can end in triumph, or tragedy, or some combination of both. Whatever the event and whatever the outcome, a society passes through a great gate of history, fundamentally altering the course of civilization.
Soon thereafter, this great gate is sealed by the Crisis resolution, when victors are rewarded and enemies punished; when empires or nations are forged or destroyed; when treaties are signed and boundaries redrawn; and when peace is accepted, troops repatriated, and life begun anew.
One large chapter of history ends, and another starts. In a very real sense, one society dies -- and another is born."

Russia has been through several such rebirths over the centuries, including historic transitions from paganism to Orthodox Christianity to atheistic Communism. As we watch the events in Russia today, we can see that some kind of new crisis and rebirth is coming, and we can only imagine what Russia will be like when the crisis is resolved.

Video of Moscow riots on December 11

The following video shows Saturday's riots in Moscow, with ethnic Russians clashing with police. Towards the end, there are scenes of a Caucasian who was beaten.

Additional links

A terrorist attack on the Imam Hussein mosque in southeastern Iran during a major Shia religious ceremony killed 33 people, and wounded 83 others. The Pakistani-based Sunni terrorist group Jundullah claimed responsibility. Press TV

Tens of thousands of workers marched through Athens on Wednesday in a nationwide general strike to protest austerity measures. The Greek finance ministry was set ablaze as furious protestors threw chunks of concrete, bottles and molotov cocktails in pitched battles of street fighting with police, who responded with tear gas. Peaceful demonstrations took place in Spain and France. EU Observer

There's a lot of talk about the death of the euro on the eve of a major EU summit meeting in Brussels to discuss the growing financial crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel remained at the center of the financial story as she continued to oppose the "euro bond" concept that would allow the central bank to issue bonds backed by all eurozone countries. Moody's issued a warning to Spain that its debt might downgraded, and Spain's bond yields reached new highs. NY Times

As the possibility of an invasion by North Korea becomes more likely, South Koreans are taking part in civil defense drills for the first time since 1992. On Wednesday, sirens sounded and fighter jets buzzed Seoul to simulate a North korean attack, as people scrambled for air raid shelters. Bloomberg

A White House review of US operations in Afghanistan, to be announced on Thursday, shows deep divisions among U.S. agencies, with intelligence agencies far more pessimistic than military organizations about success in the war. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Dec-10 News -- Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-2010 16-Dec-10 News -- Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence

Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence

Video of Moscow riots on December 11

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-2010
16-Dec-10 News -- Moscow police arrest hundreds to head off ethnic violence