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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-2010
21-Dec-10 News -- China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India

Web Log - December, 2010

21-Dec-10 News -- China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India

North Korea backs down from threats of retaliation

China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India

China's premier Wen Jiaboa has just completed a three day visit with officials in Islamabad, Pakistan. According to Xinhua, they had an "in-depth exchange of views on further strengthening and deepening the China-Pakistan all-weather strategic partnership of cooperation,", in a "cordial and friendly atmosphere."

Pakistan still hasn't really recovered from the worst floods in the country's history, when one-fourth of the country was under water in July and August, causing loss of property and life, and creating a huge financial burden.

In their meetings, Wen promised $200 million in flood-related aid to Pakistan, and also announced an additional $400 million in concessional credits to lessen the financial burden, according to Pakistan's Daily Times.

Wen also spent three days in Delhi meeting with Indian officials, but the tone was decidedly different.

In the past year, China has taken an increasingly confrontational position with regard to the regions of Jammu and Kashmir and Jammu (J&K). The disputed J&K region is divided by a "line of control" (LoC) into two portions, controlled by India and Pakistan, respectively. Previously, China was neutral with regard to the sovereignty of J&K, treating the Indian controlled portions of J&K the same as the Pakistani controlled portions. But in the last year, China has been refusing to fully recognize Indian passports of citizens of Indian controlled J&K, while fully recognizing Pakistani passports.

Thus, it was noticed that in the communiqué that was issued following Wen's visit to Delhi, there was no mention of India's concurrence with the "one China policy," according to Sify. This policy affirms that Tibet and Taiwan are part of China.

The one China policy has been mentioned in previous India-China joint statements, so its omission here is causing speculation that India is getting revenge for China's change in position on J&K. One Indian China expect is quoted as saying, "The omission is glaring. Clearly, there was some breakdown. It looks like we have made it clear that unless China accepts Kashmir as part of India, India will not repeat that Taiwan and Tibet are part of China in future joint statements."

India, Pakistan and Kashmir. <font size=-2>(Source: Peter N. Stearns)</font>

India, Pakistan and Kashmir. (Source: Peter N. Stearns)

Another subtle change in China's policies has been noticed in an analysis by Bahukutumbi Raman.

He noticed that in the last year, China's press reports have been referring to a "2000 kilometer long border" between China and India. India has always referred to the border as being 3500 km long, and China only began challenging that about a year ago.

The above map shows what's going on. If you agree with the LoC that gives one portion of J&K to India, then the entire border between India and China is 3500 km. But if you assume that all of J&K is part of Pakistan, then the entire border is only 2000 km long.

Kashmir and Jammu were a major site of the genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims after Partition in 1947 (when the India subcontinent was partitioned into Pakistan and India). After the war, Kashmir and Jammu were split into Pakistani-controlled and India-controlled regions, separated by a "line of control" (LoC). Since then, Pakistan and India have fought two non-crisis wars over the region, and it's been a continuing source of unrest, terrorist attacks, and violence.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, India and Pakistan will be re-fighting the war that followed partition. As time goes on, we see that China is increasingly taking Pakistan's side, while the U.S. (and, incidentally, Russia) are more sympathetic to India's side. This will decide part of the lineup in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.

Additional links

As the Obama administration's deadline for withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan approaches, the U.S. military is pushing for an expanded campaign of Special Operations ground raids across the border into Pakistan’s tribal areas. This can only end badly. NY Times

South Korean and U.S. military forces are remaining on high alert after North Korea backed down from threats of retaliation for South Korea's live fire artillery drills near Yeonpyong Island on Monday. North Korea had deployed multiple rocket launchers on its shore near Yeonpyeong Island, and had threatened an "unpredicted self-defense counterattack" to the South Korean drills, that could lead to "potential disaster." However, later reports indicated that some of these weapons were fakes. Yonhap

Some analysts believe that the North Koreans are just playing a waiting game. They backed off from retaliation on Monday, but it's possible that they'll still retaliate, perhaps during the holiday season when everyone is relaxed. VOA

Israeli warplanes attacked sites in Gaza on Monday night, wounding two Palestinian militants. The raids came after Palestinian militants fired mortar shells into southern Israel. AFP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Dec-10 News -- China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-2010 21-Dec-10 News -- China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-2010
21-Dec-10 News -- China seals friendship with Pakistan, but stresses problems with India