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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Dec-2010
22-Dec-10 News -- Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus

Web Log - December, 2010

22-Dec-10 News -- Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus

South Korea to hold large live-fire drills on Thursday

Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus

They say that history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes, and that's apparently what's happening in Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenko has been President of Belarus since 1994, through several elections. On Sunday a new election was held, and Lukashenko received about 80% of the vote, only slightly less than the 83% of the vote that he got in the 2006 elections, according to VOA.

However, the United States and the Europeans are calling the election invalid. Hundreds of opponents of Lukashenko were beaten and arrested, including opposition candidates, and there was violence against journalists. The votes were counted by officials reporting to Lukashenko, and polling organization were forbidden from conducting exit polls that might have validated or invalidated the election results.

Belarus has a brutal 20th century history. After World War I, Belarus was split into two regions, one part of Josef Stalin's Soviet Union and one controlled by Poland. Both regions were brutalized in the 1930s by respective Russification and Polonization campaigns, which sought to suppress the Belarus language and culture with the language and culture of the two captors. Particularly brutal was Stalin's Great Purge in the late 1930s, where thousands of people whom Stalin imagined to be his enemies were tortured, imprisoned and executed.

This period, in the days leading up to World War II, is what I'm saying is similar to what's happening today, in the days leading up to the Clash of Civilizations world war. Lukashenko is no Stalin, but he's using the same techniques that Stalin used, and the justification is the same: to provide stability.

However, Belarus is in a generational Crisis era, and stability may not last, any more than it did in WW II. Violence and rioting have occurred since the election, although it's been sharply curtailed by a violent KGB crackdown.

Here's an ITN Video of the events of the last couple of days in Minsk, the capital of Belarus:

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South Korea has announced that it will hold its largest ever winter live-fire drills on Thursday, an an area adjacent to the North Korean border. N. Korea had threatened "catastrophe" if Monday's live-fire drills were held, but backed off from attacking when S. Korea held them anyway. These new, larger live-fire drills are sure to provoke, if not military action, then at least a series of hysterical accusations. CNN

Violence in the Gaza strip on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides is increasing. The Palestinians are using more powerful Russian-made missiles, and Israel's air force had th e most extensive aerial bombardment since the war in Gaza two years ago. Jerusalem Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Dec-10 News -- Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Dec-2010 22-Dec-10 News -- Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus

Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Dec-2010
22-Dec-10 News -- Post-election violence threatens to destabilize Belarus