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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Dec-2010
31-Dec-10 News -- North and South Korea update their military strategies

Web Log - December, 2010

31-Dec-10 News -- North and South Korea update their military strategies

Cambodia arrests seven 'yellow shirt' nationalists from Thailand border

South Korea tries anything it can to prevent war

South and North Korea are both changing their military and diplomatic strategies with respect to one another, reflecting the changed realities in their relationship after the tumultuous events of 2010. The changes in both their strategies are described in a new white paper, "Proper Inter-Korean Relations, Preparing Together for Reunification," released by South Korea's Unification Ministry.

However, the strategy changes seem to differ in intent. The North Korean strategy changes appear to be preparations for war, while the South Korean strategy changes appear to me to be nearly desperate attempts to try almost anything to keep a war from occurring.

South Korea is changing its diplomatic rhetoric, according to an analysis by Hankyoreh Media Company. This can be seen from changes in the three major policy goals. In 2009, the three major policy goals were:

Principled development of inter-Korean relations
Productive humanitarism
Strengthening reunification capacities for the future.

For the new report, the three major policy goals are:

Inducing desirable changes in North Korea
Establishing proper inter-Korean relations
Preparing for reunification.

The "desirable changes" that the South is going to induce in the North are these:

Denuclearization
Opening to the outside world
An emphasis on public welfare.

I read this list, and I'm immediately reminded of the phrase, "When pigs fly." At any rate, the report does not say how the South is going to induce these changes in the North.

The problem for the South is that it simply has no way to respond to the North's repeated military actions. If the South does nothing, it looks weak; if it responds militarily, then all out war is a likely possibility. So all the South can do is make meaningless diplomatic gestores and perform useless military exercises.

North Korea continues to prepare for war

North Korea, on the other hand, is clearly preparing for war. They've increased their military strength on the border, substantially increasing the number of their special forces and their battle tank strength, according to the Korea Times. The reinforced special forces will be able to quickly inflitrate South Korea for assassinations and disrupting major facilities, presumably in preparation for full scale war.

In fact, North Korea is already preparing for a new attack on South Korea, according to a JoongAng story quoting Radio Free Asia.

According to the report, North Korea has been training its special forces for a surprise attack on South Korean's islands in the West Sea. The purpose of the exercises was to "break the will of the South Koreans who have been promising strong retaliation ever since the Yeonpyeong Island shelling."

"North Korea’s plan is to shell the islands with coastal artillery on a moonless night, render South Korean soldiers at military bases on the islands helpless, then take over the territory with soldiers landing on hovercrafts, the source said.
The source added that the South Korean military wouldn’t be able to rescue the islands because they are so far from the mainland. Westernmost Baengnyeong Island is 191.4 kilometers (119 miles) from Incheon on the mainland.
North Korea also allegedly said that South Korean troops couldn’t easily retake the islands in fear of the North’s nuclear weapons, and U.S. troops in the South would be immobilized in such a hostage situation, the source said.
North Korea said the South would fail in its attempt to take back the islands because the North’s military far outnumbers the South’s in terms of manpower, the source said."

If these reports are true, then North Korea must be preparing for a war very soon. As I've said many times, it is not unusual in human history for one country to want to start a war, and to delude themselves into believing they can win it, and the North Koreans show all the signs of being in that state of self-delusion.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both North and South Korea are well into generational Crisis eras and a major war of reunification is going to be fought. It may start as a small regional war, but will be one component of the larger Clash of Civilizations world war.

Additional links

North Korea has broadcast its first western-made film on television. The film is a shortened version of Bend it like Beckham, a 2002 film about a soccer-mad teenage girl who outrages her traditional Indian family by idolising worldwide soccer star David Beckham and playing soccer in a local all-female team. Guardian

With the Mideast 'peace process' in a state of total collapse, all sides are taking shots at each other, since no one wants to be blamed for the collapse. In a televised interview on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Palestinians are responsible for the deadlock in peace negotiations while Israel is striving for peace. Haaretz

Cambodia has arrested seven members of Thailand's nationalist "Yellow Shirt" movement who were inspecting a disputed border area between the two countries. One of the Thais is a member of Thailand's parliament. Thailand's last crisis war was the spillover of Cambodia's "killing fields" civil war that climaxed in 1979. VOA

Yemen released 400 members of the Houthi northern rebels in an effort to end the insurgency. The Houthi rebels are Shia Muslims, and it's thought that Iran is providing support for the insurgency. The release was part of a peace deal brokered by Qatar. But Qatar has brokered several peace deals in the past, and they've all collapsed. Yemen and the Houthi rebels appear to be following a fairly standard path, alternating between war and peace treaty, eventually leading to an all out genocidal crisis war. Al Jazeera

A sophisticated virus called Geinimi (sic) has been attacking users of Android smart phones in China. Once installed, the virus sends location information, device identity and even stored contacts to an unknown server. The virus has not yet reached the U.S., but is expected to do so soon. PC Magazine

Eight reasons you wouldn’t really want to date a porn star. Reason #1: She will have award shows and film openings that you will have to go to. Guyism

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Dec-10 News -- North and South Korea update their military strategies thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (31-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Dec-2010 31-Dec-10 News -- North and South Korea update their military strategies

South Korea tries anything it can to prevent war

North Korea continues to prepare for war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Dec-2010
31-Dec-10 News -- North and South Korea update their military strategies