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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jan-2011
15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests

Web Log - January, 2011

15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests

Greece's ratings are cut to junk status

Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests

The Arab world is shocked by the overthrow of Tunisia's dictator President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who had held an iron grip on power since 1987. Ben Ali was forced to flee the country after an unprecedented popular uprising mobbed the capital Tunis with protesters, leading to riots and violent confrontations with the police, according to Associated Press.

Tunisia <font size=-2>(Source: CIA Fact Book)</font>

Tunisia (Source: CIA Fact Book)

The riots were triggered by the mid-December suicide of a vegetable salesman when police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he was selling without a permit. The riots turned into food riots for a while, as the worldwide price of food has been surging to historically high levels, but they soon turned into a general protest against the government, because of the poor economy and high unemployment.

The departure of Ben Ali leaves open the question of "What's next?"

There's really nowhere to go now for Tunisia's caretaker government, which is controlled by Ben Ali's ministers. The price of food is still at historic highs, unemployment is still high, and the economy is still poor.

Thus, it seems that there's a pretty good chance that the violence will continue, and may get a lot worse.

Tunisia's last generational crisis war was the Algerian war for independence that climaxed in 1962, so Tunisia is in a generational Unraveling era. Thus, it's almost impossible for the violence to spiral into a full-scale civil war.

The situation in Tunisia reminds me of the violence that broke out in Kenya at the end of 2007, because Kenya at that time was at approximately the same point on the generational timeline (51 years after the end of their last crisis war) as Tunisia is today (49 years). (See "Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war.")

The violence in Kenya became explosive for a while, resulting in numerous atrocities and massacres. But, as expected, the violence fizzled out after a few days.

That would be the pattern that we might expect in Tunisia today. It's possible that the violence will grow, but I would expect it to fizzle out in a relatively short period.

Impact on other Muslim countries

There has been some very interesting media commentary surrounding the overthrown of the Ben Ali -- namely that the same thing might happen in other Arab countries. Here's an interesting example from the Washington Post:

"Tunisia is a typical Middle East country in that its population is composed largely of young people. Half the population is under 25 years of age and so have known no leader other than Ben Ali, who is only Tunisia's second president since it gained independence from France in 1956.
For decades, a host of Arab dictators have justified their endless terms in office by pointing to Islamists waiting in the wings to take over. Having both inflated the egos and power of Islamists and scared Western allies into accepting stability over democracy, those leaders were left to comfortably sweep "elections." Ben Ali was elected to a fifth term with 89.62 percent of the vote in 2009.
All around him is a depressingly familiar pattern. Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi (68 years old) has been in power since 1969; Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh (64) has ruled since 1978 and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (82) since 1981. Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika (73) is a relative newcomer, having been in power only since 1999. Not so much fathers as grandfathers of their nations, these autocrats cling to office - and are increasingly out of touch with their young populaces.
No doubt, every Arab leader has watched Tunisia's revolt in fear while citizens across the Arab world watch in solidarity, elated at that rarity: open revolution.
"Goosebumps all over. I can't believe I lived through an Arab revolution!! Thank you, Tunisia!" Gigi Ibrahim, a young Egyptian woman whose handle is Gsquare86 tweeted. "The power of the masses is capable of toppling any dictatorship. Today was Tunisia. Tomorrow is Egypt, Jordan. LONG LIVE REVOLUTION!"

Indeed, these mass protests are already spreading. On Wednesday, thousands of people demonstrated in Amman and other cities of Jordan to protest rising food and commodity prices, unemployment and poverty, according to Al-Jazeera. However, there was no violence.

In fact, with food prices rising to historical levels, there may well be an increasing level of unrest in the developing world. If a man is unable to feed himself and his family, he will not just sit around twiddling his thumbs.

Additional links

A running street battle between police and protesters broke out in a slum district of Haiti's capital on Friday. Unlike Tunisia, Haiti is deep into a generational Crisis era, and so a civil war is a real possibility. Reuters

Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece's ratings to BB+, which is junk status. Bloomberg

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jan-2011 15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests

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Impact on other Muslim countries

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jan-2011
15-Jan-11 News -- Tunisia's president flees country after mass protests