	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jan-2011
16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world

Web Log - January, 2011

16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world

NY Times: Stuxnet attack on Iran was a joint U.S.-Israeli project

Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world

Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was president of Tunisia for 23 years, but he fled the country on Friday in the face of huge riots and demonstrations, as we reported yesterday.

An interim president was sworn in on Friday, but it turned out that that appointment didn't satisfy the consitution. So a new interim president was sworn in on Saturday, promising to form a unity government, according to Al-Jazeera.

With the government in chaos, looting, deadly prison riots, and street violence have engulfed Tunisia. Some of the violence is thought to be coming from armed factions allied to Ben Ali.

Even so, Arabs around the world are rejoicing that the authoritarian regime of Ben Ali has been overthrown, giving hope that the revolution could spread to authoritarian regimes in other Arab countries.

That's in contrast to the more cautious reactions from Arab governments, according to AFP.

According to the article, the Arab League urged "all political forces, and representatives of Tunisian society and officials, to be united for the good of the Tunisian people and to achieve civil peace." And Egypt's government said that it "affirms its respect for the choices of the Tunisian people, and is confident that the wisdom of the Tunisian brothers will lead to restraint and will avoid descending the country into chaos."

But Egyptian demonstrators at the Tunisian embassy in Cairo said, "Listen to the Tunisians. It's your turn Egyptians."

A Kuwaiti opposition lawmaker is quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the uprising is "A lesson to all tyrants in the Arab world."

An editorial in Lebanon's Daily Star spells it out:

"After 23 years of his corrupt and authoritarian reign, the president has at last bowed to the serious and widespread popular pressure. Television footage around the world is showing tens of thousands of Tunisians disgruntled with Ben Ali’s tyranny, and dozens of citizens have died since the rioting and demonstrations began.
This new picture of Tunisia could not clash more with the image that Ben Ali pushed for the last two decades; he regaled the world with tales of the honeyed and perfumed existence of his people. The portrait – sketched similarly in too many other Arab nations – was never convincing.
Aside from the economic hardship and near-total absence of human rights, Tunisians had to suffer silently as Ben Ali, his wife and many relatives became grossly – and illegally – wealthy. Ben Ali threw money at media campaigns to sugarcoat his country’s many ills and instead attract tourists to see its alluring shores; however, ignoring problems usually fails to make them go away. In the case of Tunisia and many other Arab states, the unspoken troubles have only grown. ...
Other Arab monarchs and presidents-for-life should learn the lesson unfolding on the streets of Tunisia: It is past time to institute democratic reforms in the Arab world, and the region’s leaders should do so before it becomes too late for them, as it has with Ben Ali."

The Tunisian uprising may well have lit a fire that could spread around the Arab world.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the effect of that fire in each country will depend on its generational era.

In countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, in generational Awakening eras, the Tunisian uprising may trigger riots and political chaos, but no prolonged violence.

In countries like Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in generational Crisis eras, the uprising may trigger sustained violence, even a civil war.

My guess is that many Arab governments are hoping that the excitement from the Tunisian uprising will die quickly.

NY Times: Stuxnet attack on Iran was a joint U.S.-Israeli project

Stuxnet, a major computer virus, attacked Iran's nuclear power plants last year, causing centrifuges to spin wildly out of control and destroy themselves. (See "27-Sep-10 News -- Iran's nuclear plant attacked by Stuxnet computer virus.")

However, the origin of Stuxnet has been a mystery. The virus was too sophisticated to have been done by a lone hacker in his basement. In fact, reverse engineering on the virus indicated that it needed so many resources that only a government could have designed and launched it. There were many suspects, including the U.S., Israel and China, but it's remained a mystery.

Now the NY Times is reporting that the Stuxnet virus is the result of a joint project by U.S. and Israeli experts. The research was done at Israel's Dimona nuclear power plant, whose existence has not been admitted.

Stuxnet is thought to be a huge success, because it set back Iran's development of nuclear weapons by 2-3 years, thus delaying the need for a miltary attack on Iran's nuclear power plants.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jan-2011 16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world

Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world

NY Times: Stuxnet attack on Iran was a joint U.S.-Israeli project

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jan-2011
16-Jan-11 News -- Effects of Tunisia uprising spread around the Arab world