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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2011
20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus

Web Log - January, 2011

20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus

Former Haiti president Jean-Bertrand Aristide coming home

Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus

A top official of the Russian Orthodox Church has called for an official Russia-wide dress code for men and women. Christian Century quotes Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin as saying:

"Vulgar external appearance and vulgar behavior is a straight path to misery. To empty `one-night stands.' To short marriages followed by rat-like divorces. To children with broken fates. To loneliness and madness. To catastrophes in life."

He added that a woman who is "barely wearing any clothes or is painted like a clown" in the hopes of meeting a man risks meeting a "drunk idiot" or at best a "sober idiot."

Chaplin, a top aide to Patriarch Kirill, was responding to criticisms for statements that he made last month, in the wake of racial riots in central Moscow:

"If she wears a mini-skirt, she might provoke not only a man from the Caucasus, but a Russian as well. If she is also drunk, she is all the more likely to provoke them. If she is also actively seeking contact and is then surprised that this contact ends in rape, then she is all the more wrong."

Chaplin's remarks triggered the usual outrage from feminist groups, but this statement, widely interpreted as implying that Muslims from the Caucasus are more likely to rape Russian women than Russian men are, has provoked charges of racism.

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

The Moscow riots had resulted from surging xenophobic tensions between Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and mostly Muslim ethnic groups from the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces). They were triggered by the shooting death of a Russian football (soccer) fan during a fight between football fans and Caucasian migrants. (See "14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia.")

The controversy over Chaplin's statements comes after a year when Moscow's position in its North Caucasus provinces has worsened dramatically, according to an analysis from Jamestown. The number of militant actions against Russian authorities, as well as the number of people killed, rose substantially in 2010. Moscow's promises to invest large sums of money in the North Caucasus economy were not kept, with resulting increases in poverty and unemployment.

The dominant factor in the deterioration of Moscow's position in the North Caucasus is the intensified armed resistance movement. While in 2009, the violence and unrest was concentrated mainly in tiny Ingushetia, according to the article, it spread to several much larger provinces in 2010.

This has been particularly true among the Circassian ethnic group, who are outraged that Russia is holding the 2014 Olympics in the Sochi resort on the Black Sea. It was a Circassian stronghold until a well-remembered genocidal battle in 1864, where Russians exterminated many Circassians and expelled the rest. (See "30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics.")

In 2010, evidence mounted that nationalistic Circassian militant groups have become more active, bombing a train near Sochi in November. Caches of weapons have repeatedly been found in the Sochi area, and interethnic and inter-ideological tensions have been growing.

In addition to a growing insurgency, there's also been a generational change in the ideological Islamist portion of the insurgency, according to a Russian analysis described by Paul Goble.

Moscow is losing the battle for the "hearts and minds" of the Caucasians. The middle-aged Islamists of the last decade are being supplanted by young people who are being recruited for the long term. Some 1500 young people from Dagestan alone have gone to study in foreign Muslim centers, and about 500 have already returned, according to the article.

So we see a violent confrontation building up on both sides. In Moscow, we have violent ethnic Russians targeting migrants from the Caucasus, and in the North Caucasus provinces, we have violent young militants targeting Russian authorities.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the buildup to a major genocidal civil war. It's somewhat comical that analysts are surprised that Moscow's position in the North Caucasus deteriorated in 2010, since it would have been a shock if the opposite had happened. This is a trend that's been in place for over a decade, in a region where bloody wars have been fought between Russians and Caucasians for centuries, so you can be certain that the situation will continue to deteriorate in 2011.

Returning now to Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin's remarks about a dress code for women, this is consistent with another trend: Increased modesty in women. During a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s), society demands gender equality, and moves in the direction of putting individual rights above survival of the society. In a generational Crisis era, like today, society increasingly places the survival of the society and its way of life above individual rights, and men and women adopt more stereotypical gender roles. See "'It's going to be the 1950s all over again'" for more information.

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Yesterday we reported that former dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier had returned to Haiti, amid the chaos, the violence, the earthquake destruction, and the cholera. But now another former leader, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, plans to return, "to contribute to serving my Haitian sisters and brothers as a simple citizen in the field of education." These people are coming out of the woodwork. What fun! NY Times

Iranians say goodbye to 10 cent per litre gasoline, as energy and food subsidies are phased out. Reuters

Amazon.com is selling a gastric bypass surgery kit, for just $264, cheap at twice the price. KIRO Radio (Seattle)

Uncensored Playboy Magazine coming to IPad in March. PC World

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2011 20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus

Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Jan-2011
20-Jan-11 News -- Top Russian Orthodox priest warns women about rape by men from Caucasus