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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-2011
24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka

Web Log - January, 2011

24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka

Release of secret 'Palestine Papers' will roil the so-called 'Mideast Peace Process'

Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka

"Tunisia-style uprisings" have been occurring, to a greater or lesser extent, in Algeria, Egypt, Yemen and Albania, in the wake of Tunisia's "Jasmine Revolution" that has forced the dictatorial former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee the country. We can watch each of these countries in the next few days to see whether the uprisings fill expand or fizzle.

In Tunisia itself, the protests have taken a very significant turn: Tunisia's police joined with the protesters in anti-government demonstrations, according to Bloomberg. This means that the police will not be firing bullets at the protesters, which means that the protests can continue as political protests, rather than as bloody massacres. Therefore, this is very good news for the Tunisians and for the world.

From the point of view of generational theory, Tunisia is currently going through a particular passage known as an "Awakening climax." This is the climax of a political battle between the older generation of survivors of the previous crisis war, and the younger generation of kids growing up after the war. The Awakening climax resolves the political battle, and identifies a generational "winner." (See "Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology" for more information.)

America's last Awakening climax was the resignation of President Richard Nixon, in 1974, and event that clearly identified the young Boomers as political victors over the aging GI and Silent generations that had survived World War II.

Student blocks row of tanks -- 'tank man' -- in China's Awakening climax in Tiananmen 1989 Square

Student blocks row of tanks -- 'tank man' -- in China's Awakening climax in Tiananmen 1989 Square

When a country's older generation "wins," it's usually a disaster for the country. If the older generation "wins," then it does so by morphing the "horizontal" split between old and young generations into a "vertical" fault line split between different ethnic or demographic groups. That's what happened, for example, in China's Tienanmen Square massacre in 1989, in Burma's 8/8/88 revolution and in Thailand last year. In those cases, the police turned on the young demonstrators and massacred them, creating a permanent violent fault line that will eventually lead to civil war.

Tunisia's last generational crisis war was the Algerian war of independence that ended in 1962. Since that was not a civil war for Tunisia, there is no clearly defined ethnic fault line in Tunisia. If there were, then the police would be taking one side or the other in the ethnic conflict (to prevent a new civil war), and the war survivors in the government would clamp down on the demonstrations violently, as we described in China, Burma and Thailand.

But in Tunisia, the police are joining with the demonstrators. This indicates that the conflict is remaining as a genuine generational split, and will be resolved by a victory by the younger generation, with a good chance for the survival of Tunisia's constitutional government.

This is all very exciting from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, because it provides for further analysis and development of some generational theories.

I'm often asked a question like, "Generational Dynamics is great, but what good is it? How can it be used to set policy and improve things?"

In most countries today, it's too late. Poor policies have led to decades of unmet needs, unpaid bills, and unresolved problems that can no longer be resolved. We're headed for a major financial crisis and a new world war that can no longer be prevented.

But in Sri Lanka, it's not too late, since their generational crisis civil war has just ended, and positions are still flexible. Here there is a clear example of how understanding generational theory can lead to better policy positions.

When the Sri Lanka civil war was reaching a climax, every analyst I read, including at Stratfor, NY Times, BBC, etc., said that an army victory over the Tamil Tigers would not mean an end to the war and terrorism, since it had already gone on for many years.

I predicted, based on generational theory, that the defeat of the Tamils would be similar to the defeat of the Nazis and Japanese in 1945, and the violence and terrorism would stop. The defeat of the Tamils would be the bloody climax of a generational crisis war, and the war would be over for good.

Sure enough, that's exactly what happened, and the Tamil Tigers renounced violence shortly after the war ended.

Now here's the point: A new civil war in Sri Lanka is IMPOSSIBLE at this time. And I don't mean that it's unlikely, or that it won't happen if the government does xyz, or it won't happen if the United States does xyz. I'm saying that it WON'T happen, no matter what anyone does. It can't happen, any more than a river can flow uphill. This is a conclusion of generational theory.

Now, if the Sinhalese government understood that, then they could be very generous with the Tamils, and unify the country, just as the U.S. became unified after the American Civil War.

But if, as I believe to be the case, the government officials believe that one wrong move will trigger more terrorist attacks and another civil war, then they'll adopt the wrong policies -- very oppressive policies, very discriminatory policies -- with the purpose of not triggering a new civil war.

By adopting these oppressive policies, they'll lay the foundation for the kind of ethnic hatreds that will lead to increased violence starting in 15-20 years, when the first generation of post-war children become of age. And their Awakening climax, unlike Tunisia's, will end badly. So, by not understanding generational theory, they'll produce exactly the results that they're trying to avoid.

This is a clear cut difference in policy, where understanding generational theory can be used to prevent violence, oppression and discrimination. Unfortunately, politicians only focus on the politics of the day, and never think about what's really going on.

Release of secret 'Palestine Papers' will roil the so-called 'Mideast Peace Process'

WikiLeaks isn't the only game in town for releasing confidential government papers.

Ten years' worth of previously secret papers from the Palestinian Authority, now known as the "Palestine Papers," have been leaked to Al-Jazeera:

"Over the last several months, Al Jazeera has been given unhindered access to the largest-ever leak of confidential documents related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are nearly 1,700 files, thousands of pages of diplomatic correspondence detailing the inner workings of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. These documents – memos, e-mails, maps, minutes from private meetings, accounts of high level exchanges, strategy papers and even power point presentations – date from 1999 to 2010.
The material is voluminous and detailed; it provides an unprecedented look inside the continuing negotiations involving high-level American, Israeli, and Palestinian Authority officials.
Al Jazeera will release the documents between January 23-26th, 2011. They will reveal new details about:

the Palestinian Authority’s willingness to concede illegal Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem, and to be “creative” about the status of the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount;

the compromises the Palestinian Authority was prepared to make on refugees and the right of return;

details of the PA’s security cooperation with Israel;

and private exchanges between Palestinian and American negotiators in late 2009, when the Goldstone Report was being discussed at the United Nations

Because of the sensitive nature of these documents, Al Jazeera will not reveal the source(s) or detail how they came into our possession. We have taken great care over an extended period of time to assure ourselves of their authenticity."

The Al-Jazeera coverage has been, unsurprisingly, highly sympathetic to the Palestinian point of view.

Here, for example, are excerpts from an analysis by Robert L. Grenier, formerly Director of the CIA Counter-Terrorism Center (CTC), and a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations:

"I have spent many hours reading The Palestine Papers, the recent 10-year record of the so-called Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The picture which clearly emerges from these pages of the Palestinian leadership and of the peace process negotiators themselves is that these are no quislings. For month after month, year after year, through endless, mind-numbing subcommittee meetings and plenary sessions, through interminable exchanges of letters and legal briefs, slogging from hotel meetings in Jerusalem to conferences in Egypt to “summit meetings” in Washington, the Palestinian negotiators tirelessly advocate on behalf of their people’s interests. In the face of Israeli condescension, obfuscation, and endless legalistic pettifogging they continually push back, insisting on application of relevant international law, despite the Israelis’ obvious contempt for their international obligations.
They persist in the face of the Americans’ blatant advocacy on behalf of the Israelis, refusing to cave in to consistent American pressure designed to force the Palestinians to compensate for Israeli inflexibility with ever-greater concessions of their own. ...
All of us approach this record burdened with our own backgrounds and experiences. I assess them as an American, and as a former government practitioner. As an American, the reaction I draw, frankly, is one of shame. My government has consistently followed the path of least resistance and of short-term political expediency, at the cost of decency, justice, and our clear, long-term interests. More pointedly, The Palestine Papers reveal us to have alternatively demanded and encouraged the Palestinian participants to take disproportionate risks for a negotiated settlement, and then to have refused to extend ourselves to help them achieve it, leaving them exposed and vulnerable. The Palestine Papers, in my view, further document an American legacy of ignominy in Palestine."

I'm sure that the US government will respond to charges like this in the next few days, but there are a couple of points that I would make.

First, these are ten years of papers from Palestinian sources. If Grenier had access an equivalent collection of Israeli or American papers (where's WikiLeaks when you need them?), his conclusions might have been different.

But more important are the conclusions that I heard from other analysts, and I heard many of them on Al-Jazeera English television on Sunday.

The substance of the analysis was that the Palestinian Authority, its president Mahmoud Abbas, and its chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat, were acting in an illegitimate manner. They had no right to make the concessions they did -- giving chunks of Jerusalem to the Israelis, or conceding the right of return -- without the approval of the Palestinian people themselves.

Grenier blames the Israelis for dismissing the Palestinian concessions without even considering them, but this commentary provides one possible explanations: The Israelis, like this commentator, may have concluded that the concessions weren't serious, since the Palestinian people would never approve of them.

In fact, some of the al-Jazeera commentary that I heard today implied that the real winners of this document release would be the terrorist group Hamas, since they would gain politically, as the Palestinian Authority was discredited.

Grenier claims that the Israelis have never made any concessions to the Palestinians. Well, that's obviously untrue, the clearest example being the return of the entire Gaza Strip to the Palestinians in 2005.

So I don't blame either the Palestinians or the Israelis -- or the Americans. I wrote about this subject in 2003, when President Bush announced the Mideast Roadmap to Peace. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?") As I wrote at the time, and have repeated many times since then, the Arabs and the Jews will be re-fighting the bloody war that took place after the partitioning of Palestine in 1948 and the creation of the state of Israel. This is an absolute certainty, and there's nothing that any of the players can do to prevent it. All the different negotiators can do is play their parts like actors in a scripted play that can end in only one way.

12 places to go if the world goes to hell

Every now and then, someone asks me where they should move their families to be safe, and I really don't have an answer. Now I can refer them to a Business Insider article that lists the 12 places to if the world goes to hell:

Puncak Jaya

Puncak Jaya

Chiang Mai in northern Thailand
Tristan da Cunha, a South Atlantic island chain.
Guam, a Pacific Island, that played a big part in WW II.
Denver, Colorado
Bern, Switzerland
Puncak Jaya, in the mountains of Indonesia
Capetown, South Africa
Necker Island, owned by Richard Branson
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Kansas City, Kansas
Tierra del Fuego, Argentina
Yukon, Canada

I can't say that I really endorse any of this. Some of these places are almost sure to be battle sites in a world war.

Also, "Gerald," in the Generational Dynamics Forum posted this response:

"I will assume the list is a joke. Living in some of these places could get nasty real quick - population vs resources issues. Recently I spent some time in Tierra del Fuego. Yes it is a beautiful location but the current population is dependent on resources coming in from the outside. It was originally founded as a prison colony because of the relatively hostile climate and its remote location. Currently it survives on tourism and is the major jumping off point for Antarctica. During the prison colony period much of the natural resources were depleted, the forests were clear cut, what worked then can't be done now. If a person wants to live at a subsistence, almost stone age level there are many places to go. One of the important things one should do is leave the areas between 20 and 60 degrees north latitude, that's where most people live. One should also enjoy eating fish and grubs, and not be bothered by dense clouds of blood sucking mosquitoes or flies. You can't imagine how bad it can be until you have experienced it. It has driven people to suicide."

Well, something to think about.

Additional links

As of last week, 110 countries in the United Nations have extended diplomatic recognition to the State of Palestine, on its pre-1967 borders. Palestine Chronicle

Homeowners are increasingly willing to walk away from "under water mortgages" -- situations where the price of their home has fallen so much that the value of the home is smaller than the amount owed on the mortgage. In may, only 31% of Americans said they would consider a "strategic default," even if they can afford to pay the mortgage, while the number has now risen to 48%, according to a RealtyTrac/Trulia surve. MLive

15 signs that the US housing market is headed for complete and total collapse. Lots of graphs. Business Insider

Earth cracks in eastern Sri Lanka (Colombo Page)

Earth cracks in eastern Sri Lanka (Colombo Page)

Several cracks in the earth have opened up in eastern Sri Lanka. This looks pretty scary to me. Colombo (Sri Lanka) Page

In a story that appears to be out of Twilight Zone, a woman in New Jersey is being attacked by her own hand, after an operation. BBC

'Steampunk Palin' -- a comic book story based on Sarah Palin -- is more insane than you imagined. Comics Alliance

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-2011 24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka

Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka

Release of secret 'Palestine Papers' will roil the so-called 'Mideast Peace Process'

12 places to go if the world goes to hell

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-2011
24-Jan-11 News -- Police join the protesters in Tunisia -- how this provides lessons for Sri Lanka