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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Feb-2011
2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge

Web Log - February, 2011

2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge

Mubarak vows to step down, to die on the soil of Egypt

Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge

I'd be willing to be that there are a bunch of Democrats in the White House and Congress who are quietly thanking Florida federal judge Roger Vinson under their breath. He found the disastrous "ObamaCare" health care bill unconstitutional, according to the NY Times. The full opinion can be found in this PDF.

The entire process was melting down anyway. The Administration had granted an additional 500 waivers to the law's provisions, according to The Hill, bringing the total to 722. The waivers heavily favor labor unions and state governments.

This is exactly the kind of mess that sank President Nixon's wage-price controls. When you have some politician in Washington deciding which people in Kansas are going to be exempt from a law and which are going to have to follow the law, then the number of complaints increases exponentially.

As I've written several times, most recently in "1-Oct-10 News -- McDonald's threatens end to worker health benefits," until last year, by far the dumbest and most destructive economic policy enacted in Washington in my lifetime was the imposition, by President Richard Nixon's administration, of wage-price controls, to counter the national "emergency" represented by an inflation rate of about 4.5%. The controls program was an utter disaster. The inflation rate spiked up during the period of wage-price controls. It caused numerous shortages and mini-calamities, and did enormous damage until it was ended three years later.

The health care bill, which was wage-price controls for doctors, hospitals and health services, was in the process of doing even greater damage to the American economy. I've heard one commentator after another complain that businesses, especially small businesses, don't understand the health care bill, don't know how to comply with it, are afraid to hire people because it might obligate to enormous health care costs. Many commentators have pointed out that it was to the benefit of many small businesses to drop health care coverage altogether, and pay a fine of $2000 per employee, rather than pay the ill-defined cost of health care.

Unfortunately, the decision does not yet mean that the health care bill is dead. There will be appeals, and eventually the Supreme Court will decide. It's possible that the Supreme Court will side with the Administration, in which case the disaster will continue.

The part of the law that was struck down was the "individual mandate," that requires Americans to purchase health insurance. Proponents of the law had argued that requiring people to buy health insurance was no different than requiring them to purchase automobile insurance. However, the judge found that purchasing car insurance was related to obtaining the privilege to drive a car, while buying health insurance was not linked to any similar privilege.

Another judge had also struck down the individual mandate, but Vinson went farther. He pointed out that the Administration had argued that the individual mandate was tightly integrated into the entire law, and that many other parts of the law could not be implemented without the individual mandate. Vinson said that he could not sort out which provisions of the law could be implemented without the individual mandate, and which could not. And so he struck down the entire law.

There are many popular reforms in the health care law. The best thing for the country right now would be for Congress to start from scratch and create a replacement law. This is favored by Republicans, and opposed by Democrats, and so there's little chance that it will be done. And so the nihilism, the harm to the nation in a time of crisis will continue.

Mubarak vows to step down, to die on the soil of Egypt

Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak vowed not to run for reelection in September, and promised to institute electoral reforms that would allow more frequent elections, according to the Telegraph:

"My first responsibility is to restore the stability of the country and to ensure a peaceful transition of power. I have no intent to stand for those elections because I have spent enough time serving Egypt."

Hosni Mubarak giving speech on Tuesday (Telegraph)

Hosni Mubarak giving speech on Tuesday (Telegraph)

However, it's far from clear that this promise will satisfy the young anti-Mubarak protesters. They want to see Mubarak gone as quickly as possible, although they have no idea what will come after that.

Mubarak also said:

"I take take pride in the long years I spent in the service of Egypt and its people. This beloved homeland is my homeland, as it is the homeland of all Egyptians. I defended its soil and sovereignty, and I will die on the soil of Egypt, and I will be judged by history for my merits and demerits."

This was a significant declaration. Its intention was to contrast himself against Tunisia's former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled from Tunisia in disgrace and humiliation.

Mubarak alluded to his status as war hero, and appeared to indicate not only that he wouldn't flee, but that he would fight and die, if necessary and forced to do so.

After Mubarak's speech, Al-Jazeera was showing scenes of violence between anti-Mubarak and pro-Mubarak protesters -- sticks and rock-throwing. Since Egypt is in a generational Crisis era, it's possible that this could escalate.

The fluid situation in Egypt could go in several different directions now, especially since there's no clear path for Egypt is Mubarak is forced to step down immediately. However, it's still my expectation that the situation in Egypt will not spiral out of control, that it will stabilize and generally continue its existing policies with Israel and the West, with some adjustments for appearances.

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The Palestinian Authority was having trouble justifying its existence anyway, but after the release of the "Palestine Papers" by al-Jazeera, making it clear that the "Mideast Peace Process" is completely dead, the Palestinians are at a crossroad that could give control of the West Bank to Hamas. The National (UAE)

Hamas leaders are concerned that young Palestinians will turn against Hamas, just as young Egyptians have turned against Mubarak. Haaretz

The people of Taiwan are shocked by a new book, "2012 Taiwan Disaster," written by Yuan Hongbing, who has been exiled by China and lives in Australia. The book reveals a secret Beijing document from 2008 that plans for an invasion of Taiwan in 2012. The deadline of 2012 was set by revered former leader Deng Xiaoping (now deceased), who said that solving the Taiwan problem as quickly as possible was "an issue of life and death for the Communist Party and for the Socialist system in China." His fear was that an independent Taiwan, with its democratic political system, would "infect" the mainland, and cause mainlanders to demand the right to pick their own leaders. Ironically, the thaw in relations that allows thousands of mainlanders to visit Taiwan and experience freedom for themselves actually increases the chance of an invasion, rather than making it more unlikely. Asia Sentinel

South Korea's "Sunshine Policy" towards North Korea is over. Under that policy, aid was extended to the North, and South Korean civilians could visit their families in the North. After last year's sinking of the Cheonan warship and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. The Sunshine Policy was supposed to lead to reunification, but it failed. The new policy is much more harsh, and its objective is to force the North Koreans to consider reunification. Asia Sentinel

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently selected his younger son, Kim Jong-un, to succeed him upon his death. Now, the oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, is denouncing officials in the government who are too "hawkish." The denunciation signals a split and possible battle for succession. Chosun

A survey of North Korean defectors indicates that anti-government dissent is growing in North Korea. AFP

With China's help, Pakistan has increased its nuclear arsenal beyond 100 deployed weapons, pushing them ahead of India, which is thought to have 60-100 weapons. Pakistan becomes the fifth largest nuclear power, behind the U.S., Russia, China, and Israel (with 200 weapons). Washington Post

A region in Kazakhstan the size of Israel is littered with plutonium and other nuclear waste left behind by the detonation of 500 nuclear bombs in tests by the former Soviet Union. The American defense department is patrolling this no-man's land with drones, watching for any possible terrorists who might be gathering this material for use in a dirty bomb. Spiegel

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev appears to be getting increasingly invisible and irrelevant, as the 2012 presidential election approaches, and Vladimir Putin appears to be winning. Jamestown

Enormous numbers of young Russians are avoiding the military service, indicating that the draft has become so unpopular that Moscow can save the situation only by employing ever more repressive measures or providing a massive infusion of new funds for the armed services. Window on Eurasia

Booksellers in Moscow report that demand is growing substantially among their young educated customers for Marxist and neo-Marxist literature, indicating that Russia is moving to the left. Window on Eurasia

Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez is telling homeless people to take over the homes of wealthy people and become squatters. Guardian

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Feb-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Feb-2011 2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge

Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge

Mubarak vows to step down, to die on the soil of Egypt

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Feb-2011
2-Feb-11 News -- Disastrous health care law struck down by Florida judge