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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Feb-2011
7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers

Web Log - February, 2011

7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers

Why do some cultures celebrate terrorism, and others don't?

Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers

Yesterday, I described the speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron attacking 'multiculturalism' as being the most well thought out description of the Islamist terrorism issue that I've seen. I added that I can't recall the last time I was so impressed by a speech by a politician. (See "6-Feb-11 News -- UK Prime Minister David Cameron attacks 'Multiculturalism' in Britain.")

Unfortunately, the policies that Cameron recommended could not be implemented at this late date, and even if they could, they would have no effect.

However, the following statement by Cameron is particularly insightful: "[S]ome young men find it hard to identify with the traditional Islam practiced at home by their parents, whose customs can seem staid when transplanted to modern Western countries. But these young men also find it hard to identify with Britain too, because we have allowed the weakening of our collective identity."

This statement is consistent with research on suicide bombers performed by University of Chicago professor Robert A. Pape, published in his 2004 book, Dying to Win : The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism.

As I described in 2005 in "Robert Pape's 'Dying to Win' sheds light on suicide bombers," the form of suicide practiced by suicide bombers is "altruistic suicide," suicide performed by someone who willingly accepts a voluntary death because society supports and honors the act. A person commits suicide terrorism in order to become a hero within a social organization at odds with the target society.

Putting Cameron's remarks together with Pape's conclusions, we see that the London subway bombers were totally disoriented kids, under the influence of al-Qaeda "instructors" in Pakistan and London, who did what they did because they wanted to be a hero to their neighbors and parents.

But of course, as it later turned out, they weren't heroes to their parents and neighbors. Their parents were first and second generation immigrants from Pakistan who were as shocked as everyone was, and their neighbors had to ask their kids whether they were planning anything similar.

Pape asks the question, "Why do suicide attacks receive mass support in some societies and not others?" This is the wrong question, because it overlooks the fact that societies will support suicide attacks in some generational eras and not others.

In fact, Pape acknowledges that there's an important time component from his own data -- after all, he says that there were no suicide terrorists between 1945 and 1980, and his data shows that their incidences have been growing steadily (perhaps exponentially) since then.

He says that he can't explain why "the overwhelming majority of societies -- even those experiencing political violence -- exhibit no suicide terrorism but a handful of societies have experienced dozens of attacks each."

On the time scale, he writes, "[W]hile the supply of suicidal individuals may vary somewhat over time, psychological expanations cannot account for why over 95 percent of all suicide terrorist attacks occur in organized campaigns that are concentrated in time."

An analysis from generational theory answers all of these questions. (I wrote to Pape in 2005 to tell him, but he never responded.)

Pape's database of suicide bomber attacks reveals an startling fact about their nationalities: They come from 11 different countries, but that they overwhelmingly come from just two countries: Saudi Arabia and Morocco.

What makes this fact startling is that these are precisely the two countries that have gone the longest time since their last generational crisis wars. Saudi Arabia's last crisis war was the Ibn Saud conquest, ending in 1925, and Morocco's was the Rif War, ending in 1927.

Musical intermission: Gordon MacRae sings The Riff Song from the play Desert Song. Enjoy! End of intermission.

I've developed a "violence profile" that should apply to any society or nation at any time. This has not been rigorously proven -- that will be someone's Ph.D. thesis some day -- but it's consistent with Pape's research, and it's consistent with dozens of examples that I've posted on my web site over the years. (See, for example, my recent discussions of the lack of suicide bombers with Iraqi or Afghan nationalities in "6-Jan-11 News -- Pakistan melts down as US/Nato forces struggle in Afghanistan.")

After a generational crisis war ends (like WW II for America), the survivors devote the rest of their lives to trying to prevent anything like that from happening again.

For the first 40 years after the end of the war (generational Recovery and Awakening eras), there is relatively little violence, and such as there is is resolved by police action or mediation by the elders.

For the next 20 years (Unraveling era), the rate of violence increases, and suicide bombings, though rare, begin to appear more frequently.

From 60 years after the end of the last crisis war (new Crisis era), the previous survivors are almost all gone. The deeper the society goes into a new Crisis era, the more suicide bombings take place.

This answers Pape's questions about why some nationalities have more suicide bombers than others.

For Pape's other question, "Why do suicide attacks receive mass support in some societies and not others?" the reasoning is similar. In generational Recovery and Awakening eras, suicide bombings receive little or no support. In Unraveling and Crisis eras, the level of support increases.

David Cameron's speech brings these concepts full circle. As Cameron tries to formulate new policies for the Muslim community in Britain, and the Europeans try to do the same, they should take into account the nationalities involved, and their generational eras.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Feb-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Feb-2011 7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers

Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Feb-2011
7-Feb-11 News -- Cameron's attack on 'Multiculturalism' advances the theory of suicide bombers