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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2011
11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia

Web Log - February, 2011

11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia

Iran's opposition leader under house arrest

Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia

Egypt is in chaos today, after Egyptian officials first signaled president Hosni Mubarak's intention to "meet all the protesters' demands" (i.e., step down), but then did not step down. In his speech, he said he'd stay on until the September elections, but would transfer (unspecified) powers to the vice president, Omar Suleiman. It was only clarified several hours later by the Egyptian ambassador to the U.S., that Mubarak had transferred all presidential powers to Suleiman.

The clarification only seemed to increase the fury of the protesters, and there is a real possibility of violence on Friday after midday prayers, when millions of worshippers will pour out into the streets.

Many commentators have expressed the concern that Egypt is going to undergo a revolution similar to Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. I've written in the past (see "4-Feb-11 News -- The lull before the storm in Egypt as 'Friday of Departure' approaches") that this appears to be impossible, because Egypt is lacking two indispensable things that were present in 1979 Iran: A historic fault line between monarchy and clerics, and a charismatic clerical leader like Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. In particular, Egypt lacks any strong jihadist presence, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has long ago renounced violence.

However, while those indispensables are not present in Egypt, they ARE present in Saudi Arabia, along with its neighbor, Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has had numerous civil wars, including the crisis civil war that ended with the Ibn Saud conquest in 1925, leaving the al-Saud dynasty in control of Arabia.

Naser Al-Wahishi (Yemen Times)

Naser Al-Wahishi (Yemen Times)

Today, those ethnic divisions have morphed into a clear fault line between the Saudi monarchy, which wants to continue the country's modernization program, and the hardline Wahhabi community, currently led by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in Yemen.

And AQAP has a charismatic leader, Naser Al-Wahishi, who may have been injured in December, but is still very much alive, according to the Yemen Times.

Add to that, the fact that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah is 87 years old, unemployment is high and food prices are high, and you have the right mix for a possible Sunni Islamic Revolution in Saudi Arabia.

That's why this week's revelations of concerns about Saudi Arabia's instability are significant.

According to the Jerusalem Post, King Abdullah has spoken with President Obama, and told him not to humiliate Egyptian president Mubarak. Abdullah also promised that if the U.S. cuts financial aid to Egypt, then the Saudis will provide the same aid.

Other sources indicate that the disagreement between the Abdullah and Obama is more serious. One Saudi analyst told the Financial Times (Access) that Abdullah was alarmed that the US, a long-time supporter of Mubarak, would throw him under the bus so quickly. The fear is that the US would do the same to Abdullah just as quickly.

According to Debka, drawing on intelligence sources in London, Thursday's conversation between Abdullah and Obama was "the most acerbic the US president has ever had with an Arab ruler." Debka, which is a generally reliable news source, but has occasionally predicted imminent wars that never occurred, says that the rift places in jeopardy the entire American policy in the Mideast.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these developments would support the trend that I've discussed many times. (See, for example, "China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount" from 2008.)

The world is headed for a "Clash of Civilizations" world war, pitting China, Pakistan, and Sunni Muslim nations against the US, India, Russia and of course Israel.

Iran, which has a hardline anti-American government, but a large pro-American population, will side with the West when forced to choose one side or the other.

A Great Sunni Islamic Revolution on the Arabian Peninsula, led by jihadist Naser Al-Wahishi, is one possible outcome that would support this trend, and lead to certain regional war in the Mideast.

Additional links

An Iranian opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, was placed under house arrest on Thursday, because he called for a rally in support of the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. AP

France's president Nicolas Sarkozy declared that multiculturalism has failed, joining with British prime minister David Cameron's speech last week. ( "6-Feb-11 News -- UK Prime Minister David Cameron attacks 'Multiculturalism' in Britain".) He said, "We have been too concerned about the identity of the person who was arriving and not enough about the identity of the country that was receiving him." Telegraph

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Feb-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2011 11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Feb-2011
11-Feb-11 News -- Egypt 'contagion' threatens stability of Saudi Arabia