	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Feb-2011
19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!

Web Log - February, 2011

19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!

US vetoes UN resolution declaring Israeli settlements illegal

IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!

Ken Jennings, Watson's avatar, and Brad Rutter prepare to play Jeopardy!

Ken Jennings, Watson's avatar, and Brad Rutter prepare to play Jeopardy!

IBM's Watson supercomputer performed spectacularly well on the Jeopardy! television programs aired earlier this week. Watson played against two former champions, and won $77,147 versus their winnings of $24,000 and $21,600, respectively.

Watson was by no means omniscient, as the NY Times pointed out. In one case, the clue was: “Its largest airport is named for a World War II hero; its second largest for a World War II battle," within the category of "U.S. Cities." Watson guessed "What is Toronto," drawing laughter. (The designer explained that Watson understood that the response had to be related to a US city, but didn't relate that to actually be a US city.)

Those moments were in the minority. In question after question, Watson was able to parse through layers of meanings and double meanings to come up with the correct response.

People who pooh-pooh this accomplishment because it's just a robot that can solve problems in one particular game are completely missing the point. This is version one of a very powerful capability. It's quite reasonable to assume that ten years from now, you'll be carrying an iPhone-like device which will answer any question you ask it.

Between now and then, there'll be all sorts of special-purpose applications developed. Within a couple of years, expect to see everything from online technical support web sites to Home Depot kiosks answering your questions.

As I wrote last year in "27-Dec-10 News -- IBM vs Jeopardy! brings robotic warfare and the Singularity closer," this accomplishment is a highly significant event.

The Singularity is the point in time when computers will be more intelligent and more creative than humans. At that point there will be a sharp bend in the technology curve, since super-intelligent computers will be able to develop new technologies exponentially faster than humans, including technologies to make themselves faster. After that, they will essentially be running the world.

As I wrote in that article, based on algorithms that I've developed, I estimate that the Singularity will occur around 2030. But the Jeopardy! accomplishment calls that date into question, and makes an earlier date more likely, in my opinion.

Comedian Conan O'Brien invited "Watson" to appear on his program as a guest announcer, but "Watson" got into a big fight with the human announcer, Andy Richter. Here's the video:

Additional links

On Friday evening, the U.S. vetoed a proposed United Nations Security Council resolution, drafted by the Palestinian Authority, that would have condemned Israeli settlements in the West Bank and declared them illegal. The other 14 Security Council members, including Britain, France and Germany, all voted in favor of the resolution. CNN

Iranian authorities appear to have softened their demands for opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to be executed. However, they're still under house arrest. Mousavi and Karroubi have called for new anti-government demonstrations on Sunday. LA Times

The opposition Green movement in Iran is split along generational lines. The elder leaders -- Mousavi, Mehdi Karrubi and former president Mohammad Khatami -- want reforms but no regime change, while the radical, youth wing is openly advocating the end of rule by Islamic law in Iran. Asia Times

Israel to world: don’t be so fast to push democracy on Mideast Media Line

It recently was revealed that Somali pirates have been holding the crew of a North Korean cargo ship hostage, ever since the ship was captured last year in March. However, after South Korea's recent success in recapturing one of their own ships captured by Somali pirates (see "22-Jan-11 News -- Korean Navy regains confidence by recapturing hijacked ship from pirates"), there is the possibility of a kind of détente, a joint military action by North and South Korea to recapture the captured North Korean ship. World Politics Review

For years, South Korean activists have been illegally releasing balloons with propaganda leaflets targeting the North Korean regime into North Korea. However, the South Korean government did not approve of this activity. But now the atmosphere has changed, after last year's North Korean sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. The South Korean government is now copperating with the balloon launching, in one more sign of hardening positions on both sides. CS Monitor

Five reasons why Georgia lost the 2008 war versus Russia Eurasia Review

The British government plans to overhaul the country's welfare system, with the objective of changing a culture in which welfare recipients risk losing income if they find jobs. NY Times

For middle-aged women: Six reasons why you're not married. Huffington Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy! thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Feb-2011) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Feb-2011 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!

IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Feb-2011
19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!