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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-2011
3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt

Web Log - March, 2011

3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt

Saudi Arabia 'Day of rage' threats lead to 11% stock market crash

Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt

Georgians are infuriated by the accusation by Alexander Torshin, a senior senator in Russia's government, that the "ruling regime" of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili perpetrated the suicide terrorist bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo airport on January 24, killing 37 people, according to the Moscow Times. Tensions between Russia and Georgia have been great since the 2008 war fought between the two countries, largely over status of Georgia's separatist province South Ossetia, whose status has not been settled to this day.

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Chechnya's terrorist leader Doku Umarov has claimed responsibility for the airport bombing, but Torshin rejected that claim.

"Saakashvili's regime didn't need Umarov to organize bombings because there is [South] Ossetian traitor [Dmitry] Sanakoyev and his agents. Saakashvili doesn't hide his anger toward us. He made anti-Russian sentiment an item for sale a long time ago and sells it."

This accusation has raised tensions between the two countries to a new level. Georgia's foreign minister said that the statement was a "purposeful provocation," and an "absolutely groundless accusation," according to Civil.ge. She pointed out that "Even the Russian law enforcement agencies have made not a single indication about the Georgian trace," and accused the Russians of adopting these false allegations as policy.

At the heart of the latest rounds of accusations and counter-accusations are Russia's plans to hold the 2014 Winter Olypics in Sochi. Georgian officials have in fact called for relocation of games because of security threats, and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has for weeks been suggesting that Georgia is the source of those security threats. Reuters quotes Medvedev as saying "Forces that would impede holding the Olympics must be identified and brought to justice, if we are talking about citizens of our country. You all understand that there are also certain problems connected to our neighbour, Georgia."

This all comes as a new wave of violence is sweeping through the crucially important province of Kabardino-Balkaria (KBR) in the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces). On February 21, three tourists were gunned down by suspected Islamist terrorists while while skiing on Mount Elbrus, a major tourist attraction in KBR. The attack on tourists in this normally calm region has shocked Russians, and has led to calls from officials to halt tourism in the area, according to Reuters.

This was followed by the discovery of a shelter, on the slopes of Mount Elbrus, stocked with food, firearms, explosives and police uniforms and capable of housing eight people. Law enforcement officials carried out airstrikes and mortar bombings on Mount Elbrus to hunt down the militants, according to the Moscow Times, though it's not clear that any insurgents were killed.

Analyst Paul Goble is quoting Moscow political scientists are saying that the KBR violence is devastating to Russia as a whole, because it casts doubt on Moscow’s ability to ensure political stability in the North Caucasus, essential for the 2014 Olympics. In doing so, it's adding to the instability of the entire country.

The tourist attacks have severely damaged the credibility of both Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, both of whom have staked their reputations on a modernization program for the North Caucasus that was to have resolved the violence.

Furthermore, the incident is increasing the level of nationalism and xenophobia among Russians, at a time when there has been repeated violence between Russians and Caucasus Muslims in Moscow.

As I wrote last year in "2-Nov-10 News -- Russia is losing control of the Caucasus," the selection of Sochi for the 2014 Olympics suffers from a very dramatic reality. Whether by incredible coincidence or design, Sochi is the site of a battle that occurred exactly 150 years earlier, in 1864 -- a well-remembered battle where ethnic Russians massacred ethnic Circassians, the same Circassians that now live in KBR and neighboring North Caucasus provinces.

At the time that I wrote that report, the Circassian genocide was still a narrowly local issue, but it's increasingly becoming a national and international issue, according to Goble.

In the past, Moscow has simply ignored the Circassian situation, saying that nothing important happened. But it's becoming apparent that Moscow badly miscalculated, and now has to deal with a growing problem. The Circassians are demanding recognition of what happened in 1864 as a genocide, and they're receiving the cooperation of the Georgians in making this demand. This may explain why some Russian officials are accusing the Georgians of perpetrating violence in the North Caucasus, and even being responsible for the airport bombing.

According to Goble, Russian authorities may be planning to try to divide the Circassians by offering them something in the hopes of getting them to drop these demands.

I would be very surprised if this kind of bribery did anything but worsen the situation.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus region is one of the most violent on earth, because of the interethnic wars, and because it's one of the major regions (along with the Crimea and the Balkans) where fault line generational crisis wars have been fought between the Muslim civilization and the Orthodox Christian civilization. The great forces that have lead to these wars over the centuries appear to be rising again. It's too bad that the 2014 Winter Olympics plans for Sochi are caught in the line of fire.

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Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange - to March 2, 2011

Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange - to March 2, 2011

Saudi Arabia's stock market continues its rapid crash, falling 11% in wild trading in the last two days. The entire Gulf region was affected, and Dubai's stock exchange plunged to a 7 year low. Saudi activists have called on Facebook for a "Day of Rage" on March 11. Telegraph

The failure of the Cairo stock exchange to reopen yesterday, after having been closed since January 27, may cause the exchange to lose its recognition as an international market. Bloomberg

The generation of Russians born in 1991 or later lack understanding of the dangers of xenophobia, and so are becoming increasingly nationalistic, and this "can lead to the splitting up of Russia into separate ethnic fragment-states." Paul Goble

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-2011 3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-2011
3-Mar-11 News -- Instability in Russia puts 2014 Olympics at Sochi in doubt